Agrégateur de flux

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro d’hiver de Politique étrangère (n°4/2016). Norbert Gaillard propose une analyse de l’ouvrage d’Abdulrazak Al Faris et Raimundo Soto, The Economy of Dubai  (Oxford University Press, 2016, 368  pages).

Ce livre d’économistes travaillant majoritairement au Dubai Economic Council est une étude exhaustive de l’économie de Dubaï, l’une des sept entités constitutives des Émirats arabes unis.

Le premier chapitre rappelle comment, à partir des années 1980, la manne pétrolière a permis à Dubaï de diversifier son économie, en devenant une place financière régionale majeure et en créant des zones franches pour les sociétés étrangères, la plus célèbre et ancienne étant la Jebel Ali Free Zone. Sur la période 1980-2011, la croissance annuelle du PIB a été en moyenne de 6,5 %, taux cependant inférieur à celui de Singapour et de Hong Kong (deux territoires qui font figure de modèles), en partie à cause de la faible productivité de l’émirat et de sa vulnérabilité aux chocs externes.

Au fil des pages, les auteurs soulignent les défis auxquels Dubaï est confronté et avancent des recommandations de politique économique. Par exemple, le fort endettement des entreprises publiques et parapubliques comme Dubaï World et Investment Corporation of Dubaï dans les années 2000 a pesé sur les comptes de l’émirat. Les récentes restructurations de dette devraient convaincre le gouvernement de mieux contrôler les stratégies de ces grands groupes, de développer un marché des capitaux en dirhams et de mettre en place un véritable régime fiscal (les recettes non fiscales représentant les trois quarts des recettes totales de 2011). Le système bancaire de Dubaï est jugé relativement fragile comparé à celui d’Abu Dhabi, comme l’attestent le pourcentage plus élevé de créances douteuses et la moindre profitabilité des établissements de crédit. Ces derniers financent d’ailleurs insuffisamment les petites et moyennes entreprises. La diversification de l’économie doit être approfondie. Deux secteurs seraient à privilégier : le tourisme médical et les services financiers. Parallèlement, la production de biens à haute valeur ajoutée permettrait à Dubaï d’accroître ses exportations vers les pays industrialisés en dépassant les marchés traditionnels que sont l’Inde, l’Iran et l’Arabie Saoudite. L’acquisition de terrains est un autre obstacle majeur pour les investisseurs directs étrangers ; il ne peut être surmonté que par une révision du droit de propriété.

Les progrès en matière sociale sont contrastés. Dubaï a su étendre l’accès à l’éducation. Dans les tests PISA, les scores de l’émirat sont au-dessus de la moyenne des États du Moyen-Orient mais restent inférieurs à la moyenne OCDE, et très loin des scores de Singapour et de Hong Kong. Le tissu universitaire s’est développé, mais les institutions sont encore petites et offrent un choix de programmes limité, essentiellement axé sur la finance, le commerce, la religion et les technologies de l’information. Le marché du travail, qui s’est lentement ouvert aux femmes, souffre avant tout de la kafala, par lequel l’employeur « parraine » ses employés étrangers, leur octroyant titre de séjour et permis de travail. Ce système est en fait devenu un frein à la mobilité des expatriés au sein de l’émirat.

Agrémenté de nombreux tableaux et graphiques, l’ouvrage est agréable à lire. Il présente néanmoins deux lacunes : le risque d’insolvabilité de Dubaï à moyen/long terme n’est pas abordé, et la question des mauvais traitements subis par les ouvriers étrangers (condamnés par Amnesty International dans plusieurs de ses rapports) est occultée par les auteurs du chapitre sur le marché du travail.

Norbert Gaillard

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January 8, 2017 (KHARTOUM) - Sadiq al-Mahdi, the leader of the opposition National Umma Party (NUP) has called on the United Nations to pass a resolution requiring the Sudanese government to implement the confidence building measures included in the African Union Roadmap Agreement.

FILE - The leader of Umma Party and former prime minister Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi speaks to the media after meeting with Sudan's President Omer Hassan al-Bashir in Khartoum March 24, 2011 (Reuters)

The government and Paris Call forces (the armed group s and the NUP) signed in March and August 2016 the Roadmap Agreement brokered by the African Union High Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) including several steps towards their participation in a national constitutional process inside Sudan.

However, the parties failed to sign a cessation of hostilities and humanitarian agreements that are seen crucial before to move forward in the roadmap implementation process. However, the government maintained its plans and held a dialogue conference and adopted a National Document including constitutional reforms and release of freedoms.

Sudanese government and allies pointed that the holdout groups can sign the outcome of the dialogue process (National Document) and participate in its implementation through the National Concordance Government and transitional parliament. The move is seen by the opposition group as clear violation of the Roadmap.

In a message of congratulations to the new United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres released on Sunday, NUP leader said Sudanese people look forward to a just and comprehensive peace and democratic reforms.

The former prime minister who is preparing to return to Sudan on 26 January after a two-year self-imposed exile in Cairo added that some stakeholders are deliberately blocking the path towards peace and democratic transformation.

"We look forward for the United Nations in coordination with the Peace and Security Council of the African Union to issue a resolution calling on the Sudanese stakeholders to commit themselves to implement the confidence building measures which are the cessation of hostilities, humanitarian access, guarantee of fundamental freedoms and the release of political detainees and prisoners," he said.

During the past two years, al-Mahdi worked tirelessly to win the confidence of the armed groups and to bring them together with the other opposition groups in the Sudan Call alliance to accept the idea of a comprehensive national solution.

In his message, al-Mahdi pointed on the need to encourage the peace and democratic transformation process by recommending to write off Sudan's debt, lift of sanctions and to review ways to achieve accountability in Sudan.

"In order to reach this successful outcome, the United Nations can recommend a foreign debt exemption, lifting of all sanctions, and a flexible approach to accountability as I proposed in 2011 to Mr. Hervé Ladsous the United Nations Under-Secretary-General in New York. His response then we will deal positively with the Sudanese people demands," he said.

(ST)

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January 8, 2017 (JUBA) - South Sudan rival forces have issued separate statements in which both claimed to have captured areas initially controlled by each of the two opposing factions.

Arms and light weapons have been used by both warring parties in South Sudan to commit abuses (Photo courtesy of SSANSA)

Key government officials and military officers in Upper Nile told Sudan Tribune in a series of interview that their forces repulsed attempted attacks on their positions by the armed opposition fighters allied to rebel leader, Riek Machar in around Nasir town.

Gajiok territories under Latjor state, according to a government official, have taken from armed opposition fighters he described as anti-peace elements. The SPLM-IO forces loyal to FVP, Gen. Taban Deng Gai, he said, captured Nordeng, Dhuoreding, Torpuot, Ketbek, Nyariew and Mandeng on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

These operations, he further explained, were carried out under the command of one Gen. Nasir Ruot Geng for whom he called for congratulations “for the job well done”.

“I want to declare today that the entire Gajiok area is free from Riek Machar," said Gordon Buay, one of South Sudanese diplomats to its mission in Washington.

Meanwhile South Sudanese rebels under the command and leadership of Machar announced that they had captured Morobo county in Yei River state in Equatoria region.

The armed opposition faction (SPLA-IO) military spokesman, William Gatjiath Deng said in a statement issued on Saturday that the SPLA-IO forces managed to capture Morobo county after an attack on their positions by pro-government troops in the area.

"Now, the gallant SPLA-IO forces are in full control of Morobo county,” said Deng.

(ST)

January 8, 2017 (CAIRO) - Leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Mohamed Osman al-Mirghani Sunday has formed a liaison committee to negotiate with the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) on arrangements for the new era in the country.

Al-Mirghani, who left Sudan in 2013 to London for medical treatment, arrived in Cairo last August following controversial reports over his health conditions and that his doctors advised him to give up public work.

In a press release extended to Sudan Tribune Sunday, liaison committee rapporteur Hatim al-Sir Sikingo said the committee is composed of Ahmed Saad Omer, Al-Fatih Tag al-Sir, Gaafar Ahmed Abdalla, Hassan Mohamed Musaad, Magzoub Abu Musa and Abdel-Magid Abdel-Rahim.

According to Sikingo, the committee was sworn before Al-Mirghani in Cairo, saying the party's leader handed over the members the guidelines for negotiations with the NCP including the commitment to the DUP constitution and the democratic values besides staying away from the aggressive alliances against the government.

He added the committee was also directed to layout demands for stopping the war, enhancing the democratic transition, allowing freedoms, promoting human rights, reforming the economic situation and establishing balanced foreign relations.

Sikingo pointed that al-Mirghani expressed confidence that the committee would achieve positive results that overcome previous political mistakes.

“Al-Mirghani told the committee members that all [political forces] have no option but dialogue and to establish new basis to serve the future?” said Sikingo.

He said the committee would meet with the NCP soon, pointing it would submit the outcome of its meetings to al-Mirghani to take the suitable decisions.

Sikingo pointed the move is not directly linked to the formation of the upcoming government, saying their political agenda is not confined to the distribution of cabinet posts but they seek to restore democracy.

It is noteworthy that the DUP was among the political parties that participated in the government-led national dialogue conference and approved the National Document.

The DUP left opposition ranks and joined the “broad-based” government of the NCP in December 2011, citing the “need to save the country,” in the words of al-Mirghani himself.

The decision of one of Sudan's biggest opposition parties to join the government has triggered a party crisis, which has seen many DUP members tendering their resignations and others protesting in their home areas.

The party received three ministries in the federal cabinet and continues to serve under this allocation.

(ST)

January 8, 2017 (KHARTOUM) - Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Sunday said it has intercepted the smuggling of 1500 illegal migrants on the Sudanese-Libyan border during the last seven months.

SRF field commander Mohamed Hamdan (Hametti) speaks in a press conference in Khartoum on Wednesday May 14, 2014 (ST)

Sudan is considered as a country of origin and transit for the illegal migration and human trafficking. Thousands of people from Eritrea and Ethiopia are monthly crossing the border into the Sudanese territories on their way to Europe through Libya or Egypt.

In June 2016, hundreds of RSF elements have been deployed in the remote desert of the Northern State shortly after complaint by the governor of drug and human trafficking by the criminal networks.

On Sunday, 115 illegal immigrants captured by the SRF at Sudan's northern border have arrived in Khartoum.

Speaking at a press conference in Khartoum Sunday, SRF Commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo, (aka Hametti), said the victims would be handed over to the Ministry of Interior.

He pointed that Sudan is amongst countries who fight ruthlessly against human trafficking, illegal migration, arms smuggling and terrorism, saying the SRF troops were deployed along the borders with all neighboring countries.

Dagolo added that the SRF is making large efforts to combat human trafficking and illegal migration especially as the operations are being conducted in rough terrain within the desert, saying several of his men were killed and injured during these operations.

He demanded the international community to lift the sanctions imposed on Sudan in order to allow it to combat human trafficking, pointing to the adverse impact of sanctions on all segments of the Sudanese society.

Sudan has been under US economic sanctions since 1997 and remains on the US list of state sponsors of terror.

Washington admitted Sudan's cooperation in the anti-terror war but now points that it wouldn't remove Sudan from the list of states sponsor of terrorism or left economic sanctions before the end of armed conflicts in Darfur region and Blue Nile and South Kordofan states.

Last year, the European Union granted a €100m development package to address the root causes of irregular migration in Sudan. The financial support came after pledge by the Sudanese government to cooperate with Brussels to stop human trafficking to Europe.

In January 2014, the Sudanese parliament approved an anti-human trafficking law which punishes those involved with human trafficking with up to 20 years imprisonment.

The RSF, which is widely known as the Janjaweed militias, were originally mobilized by the Sudanese government to quell the insurgency that broke out in Sudan's western region of Darfur in 2003.

The militia was reactivated and restructured again in August 2013 under the command of NISS to fight the alliance of rebel groups from Darfur region, South Kordofan and Blue Nile states following joint attacks in North and South Kordofan in April 2013.

January 8, 2017 (JUBA)- A former South Sudanese official has warned President Salva Kiir of a looming "revolution" should he fail to step aside from the helm or change the way he runs the country's affairs.

South Sudanese president Salva Kiir speaks at a public rally in Juba on 18 March 2015 (Photo: AP/Jason Patinkin)

“The people's revolution is coming. You're dividing our society .You're killing your own legacy and our fallen heroes legacy. If you can't run it, step aside”, Suzanne Jambo, a former secretary for external affairs at South Sudan's ruling party secretariat, said.

Jambo, a supporter of the president while in office, said South Sudanese were fed up after being pushed too far since President Kiir got into the centre of national affairs.

“You've pushed us too far and we are now fed up! You've only a few months to act or get out of that seat! Make sure you take with you all your Incompetent relatives, expired old guards & corrupt colleagues," Jambo wrote on her Facebook page on 3 January.

The former party official warned that change was coming and nothing would stop it.

“We are coming and nothing will stop us, the patriots, the youth, the won and the competent", she further wrote.

It is unclear what prompted Jambo to openly criticise the ruling party.

Critics of the former South Sudan ruling party official, however, argued that it could have been an attempt to draw the attention of the president to get into negotiation through middlemen and colleagues at the secretariat or in the government to offer her a job.

(ST)

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