German Foreign Policy (DE/FR/EN)

(Own report) - A serious government crisis is shaking up a pro-western Ukraine. Yesterday, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk barely survived a no-confidence vote, after President Petro Poroshenko urged him to resign. Hundreds had assembled in front of the parliament building to protest against his policies, which are impoverishing large sectors of the population. Lately, people have been particularly upset over the hike in gas prices - making, for many, heating throughout the icy Ukrainian winter an expensive luxury. Berlin and Washington are worried that the country will no longer be controllable, due to the disastrous economic situation and the dramatic loss of popularity of the President and government. Western powers have therefore begun to call on Kiev to get serious about fighting corruption. Spectacular resignations of several ministers and the deputy general prosecutor have provided greater urgency to this demand and accentuated the government crisis over the past few months and the last few days, with no solution in sight. The formation of a "government of technocrats" under a longtime western diplomat is in discussion, in other words, Kiev would be placed directly under western control.

(Own report) - Germany's close allies have torpedoed the agreement to halt combat in Syria, reached at the end of last week in Munich. Turkey has begun attacks on Syrian territory, with the objective of forcing Kurdish troops to withdraw from the airbase near Aleppo, which would be of benefit to the al Qaeda offshoot, Al Nusra, which had previously held the base. Saudi Arabia has also announced intentions of sending ground troops into Syria. This threatens an escalation in the war with Saudi Arabia and the NATO member Turkey fighting on the one side, and Syria's armed forces and Russia on the other. The consequences would be unpredictable. While not only having massively built up Turkey and Saudi Arabia's arsenals, and allowing AWACS airborne radar systems to be used in the Syrian war, Berlin is focusing on the period after combat has ended. Refugees are supposed to serve as channels for enhancing German influence in Syria. The German government is also hoping to enhance its influence in Iraq through a Marshall Plan-like reconstruction effort. German military personnel are beginning to consider Russia's intervention in Syria as having prevented IS/Daesh from taking power in Damascus and carrying out offensives against other countries - including Israel.

(Own report) - In an article published by the leading German foreign policy journal, an influential diplomat predicts that worldwide, there will be a further increase in the number of wars and their victims, this year. "The number of conflicts, their victims, and their refugees" has been increasing worldwide, for the past five years and this development will "most likely continue this year." The journal, "Internationale Politik," substantiates this assumption by presenting an overview of the current wars. Today's deadliest wars - in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, and South Sudan - are indeed a direct or indirect outcome of western hegemonic policies. With its military interventions or subversive support for insurgents, this policy is aimed at provoking pro-western putsches or weakening non-compliant states. "Internationale Politik" assesses the possibility of conflicts in China's vicinity. During the years of China's rise, western powers were unsuccessful in knitting strong ties with the resource-rich Arab world, in view of the impending power struggle with the People's Republic of China. This power struggle is already emerging.

(Own report) - The EU is exerting massive pressure to prevent the new Portuguese government from reversing austerity measures. Last Friday, the EU Commission conditionally accepted - with stipulations - Prime Minister António Costa's Draft Budget Plan aimed at phasing out the austerity policy. Brussels has already scheduled a budget reassessment for the spring. During her meeting with Costa, the day of the Commission's decision, Angela Merkel urged Portugal's prime minister to continue to pursue his predecessor Pedro Passos Coelho's austerity policy. Powerful financial market actors, notably the Commerzbank, are also opposing the democratically elected Prime Minister. The socialist minority government - supported by smaller leftwing parties - is facing a crucial test.

(Own report) - Berlin is taking steps to possibly end sanctions against Russia. Today, almost one year after the signing of the Minsk II Agreement - whose full implementation is still considered as a prerequisite for ending the sanctions - the Bavarian Prime Minster, Horst Seehofer is expected to arrive in Moscow for talks on promoting the renewal of German-Russian business relations. Seehofer can build on decades of Bavarian-Russian cooperation. His visit to Moscow is closely coordinated with Germany's federal government. The EU and NATO are also involved in Berlin's cooperation efforts. Monday, Chancellor Angela Merkel also increased pressure on Ukraine's President, Petro Poroshenko to finally obtain approval from Kiev's parliament for the constitutional amendment providing Eastern Ukraine's special status, as agreed upon in the Minsk II Agreement. Until now, nationalists and fascists have prevented this measure.

(Own report) - Within the EU, the mounting pressure to ward off refugees, is intensifying the debate about a possible dismantling of the Schengen system. It is yet unclear, whether Berlin can reach its objective of stopping refugees at the external borders of Greece to be immediately deported to Turkey. Alternately, attempts are being made to turn Macedonia into a buffer state against refugees, while threatening Greece's exclusion from the Schengen system. The establishment of a "Mini-Schengen" is being considered as an emergency solution. Even while officially continuing to reject such a "Mini-Schengen," the German government is already involved in its planning, which the Netherlands is officially directing. Any option beyond effectively sealing off Greece's external borders, i.e. abandoning part of the Schengen-system, would be a first retreat - with unforeseeable consequences. According to observers, this could seriously weaken the EU.

(Own report) - Whereas Berlin is attacking the Polish government because of its media law; massive criticism is being raised against the German public broadcasting. While German politicians are calling for sanctions to be imposed on Poland, because it is placing its public media under government supervision, a right-wing conservative former CDU minister has become Chair of an influential panel of Germany's ARD public television channel. Observers note that, even after the Federal Constitutional Court's intervention, state officials or individuals with close government ties exercise significant influence on the public broadcasting steering committees. Due to their structural relationship to the state, on the one hand, and the programs' political orientation toward government policy, on the other, one could speak of "embedded journalism" in Germany, a former correspondent of the ZDF public television concluded a few years ago. The journalist went to work for the Swiss Television, because it does not have "a NATO state's obligatory alignment." The German public television's foreign news reporting is even increasingly being accused of using falsifications.

(Own report) - High-ranking German politicians are calling for punitive measures against Poland. The Polish government's measures neutralizing the country's constitutional court as well as its new media laws are "in violation of European values," according to Volker Kauder, Chair of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group. The EU member states must now "have the courage to impose sanctions." Earlier, EU Commissioner Günther Oettinger called for Poland to be placed "under supervision." Even though the new media law, formally placing public service media under direct government control, are in fact more drastic, the forms taken by this official media control are already widespread throughout the EU. Hungary is not the only country to have enacted a media law, a few years ago, showing striking similarities to the new Polish law. Former President Sarkozy had also adopted similar measures in France. The French rulers still exercise considerable influence over public service media. However, particularly in Germany, with its hubris in seeking to discipline Poland, sharp criticism is frequently raised against the state and state parties' control of the public service media.

(Own report) - In view of the NATO Summit scheduled this year in Warsaw, the deployment of nuclear arms against Russia is being discussed within the German military and think-tanks. The Federal College for Security Studies (BAKS), for example, accuses Moscow of "neo-imperial aggression" against Eastern Europe and calls for a revival of the "nuclear deterrence" strategy. According to BAKS, the idea of a nuclear weapons-free world should be considered as "unrealistic" - after all, "disarmament is not the primary raison d'être of a nuclear weapon." The government-affiliated German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) sees it similarly, and opposes particularly a general ban on nuclear weapons, proposed by a United Nations working group. Such a "nuclear arms ban treaty" would be in contradiction to NATO's role as a "nuclear alliance," SWP claims. It would, however, be "conceivable" to strengthen the" linkage between conventional and nuclear capacities" and the "inclusion" of nuclear arms "in exercise scenarios."

(Own report) - With its own anti-Iranian policy, the West had prepared the basis for the aggressive stance Saudi Arabia is currently taking in relationship to Teheran. This becomes clear, when looking at the Middle East policy pursued by the West over the past 13 years. During that period, western countries, including Germany, have been systematically strengthening Saudi Arabia to make it a countervailing power in confrontation with an emerging Iran, a function previously held by Iraq. The West has not only been supporting Riyadh economically but also militarily, including with supplies of repression technology - also from the Federal Republic of Germany - to put down possible domestic unrest. In the meantime, however, Germany's interests have shifted and Berlin has assisted in reaching the nuclear agreement with Teheran. This will permit German enterprises to have close cooperation with Iran, promising high profits. This is why the German government now seeks to promote a settlement between Iran and Saudi Arabia and to induce Riyadh's acceptance of a "dialogue." Determined to continue its anti-Iranian course, Riyadh still rejects talking to Teheran.

(Own report) - Saudi Arabia can use German technology of repression and skills provided by the German police for the suppression of its opposition, which last weekend culminated in a mass execution. In recent years, the German government has authorized the supply of telecommunication surveillance products to Riyadh, worth more than 18 million Euros. The German Federal Office of Criminal Investigation organized, among other things, training courses in counter-terrorism for Saudi Arabia's GID intelligence service. Saudi Arabia even treats non-violent protests by its heavily discriminated Shia minority as "terrorism." The German Federal Police is training Saudi border police officers within the framework of an official project, formally approved in 2009 by Germany's Interior Minister at the time, Wolfgang Schäuble. According to reports, the training includes exercising the use of assault rifles and crackdowns on demonstrators. It has also been provided, at least temporarily, to members of the religious police force. This cooperation in repression is an element of a comprehensive economic cooperation guaranteeing German enterprises large sales and billions in contracts. Above all, it serves Berlin's strategic Middle East policy objectives.

(Own report) - With impressive scholarship programs, the German government seeks to establish firm ties to the future elite of post-war Syria. Already last year the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs began to bring more than 200 selected Syrian students to Germany, within the "Leadership for Syria" program, to be instructed - alongside their academic studies - in advanced training in "governance," organizational setup and similar courses. The program run by the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) - the largest foreign program the organization has ever undertaken - has the declared objective of preparing "a select elite among Syria's future leadership" for "active participation in organizing" post-war Syria. This assures Germany a wide range of channels for influence in Damascus over the next few decades. Berlin is also making efforts to sift out students from among the refugees arriving in Germany to be included in its efforts to gain influence. This would crystallize into Germany's becoming the Syrian elite's top European point of reference.

(Own report) - A German intelligence officer has assumed the management of the EU's IntCen espionage agency and has the responsibility of enhancing its effectiveness. Last week, the BND's Gerhard Conrad was appointed the new director of the Intelligence Analysis Center (IntCent), which is under the authority of the European External Action Service and lays the groundwork for an intelligence agency in the service of the EU's foreign and military policy. The core of the agency has existed since 1999, with the objective of reducing the EU's dependence on US intelligence services, to become militarily autonomous - even, if necessary, without the USA. Because of rivalry between the national intelligence agencies, particularly those of the larger EU countries, IntCen's development had not progressed as rapidly as was hoped. As its new director, Conrad is expected to correct the situation. However, the German government continues to reject the substitution of its national intelligence services by an EU agency, because Berlin would have to give up its special advantages, for example, through the BND's cooperation with the US agencies, and give up its methods that are incompatible with the interests of other EU member countries.

(Own report) - Today, Thursday, the first group of Bundeswehr soldiers will be leaving to go to war against the "Islamic State" (IS or Daesh). Participation in this war, which, according to government advisors will promote Germany to a "policy-shaping power in the Middle East," will assure Berlin reinforced integration into the most important command headquarters of the western war coalition against the IS/Daesh. It will also provide the German government more influence in the international power struggle over the reorganization of the Middle East. The establishment of an international protectorate is one of the issues. The first negotiations between the government of President Bashar al Assad, the Syrian opposition, and insurgent militias are due to begin at the beginning of January. Currently, opponents of the Syrian government and insurgent militias are in Riyadh to prepare for these negotiations, with the German government's approbation. Even though jihadist holy warriors are taking part in the Riyadh talks of the opposition, the northern Syrian Kurdish forces, which play a central role in the war against the IS/Daesh were among those not invited by the Saudi leadership.

(Own report) - With its military intervention in Syria and Iraq, Germany is emerging as a "policy-shaping power in the Middle East," according to a government advisor of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). The intervention in Syria, decided last week, could, therefore, last ten years and could be accompanied by "long-term" efforts to "politically reorganize" the entire region, with the cornerstone being military units, equipped and trained by the German government, serving as ground troops for the war against the "Islamic State" (IS/Daesh). In Iraq, the militia of the Kurdish Regional Government in northern Iraq could take on this role, whereas Berlin only provides minimal support to the Iraqi government's armed forces. Whereas the government in Baghdad has good relations with Iran and Russia, the Kurdish Regional Government in northern Iraq is seen as loyal to the West. Having illegally remained in office beyond the August deadline in an insidious coup, the Regional Government's President Masoud Barzani, with whom German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier met yesterday, is responsible for the brutal repression of civil protests. Ultimately - and with Berlin's military aid for his Peshmerga - Barzani may be able to proclaim "Iraqi Kurdistan's" statehood.

(Own report) - Demands to halt EU expansion and even begin to scale it back are being raised in several northern and northwestern European countries. In last Thursday's referendum, the Danish population rejected the proposal for Denmark to adopt EU domestic and judicial policies. Denmark will therefore retain its "opt-out," obtained following its "No"-majority in a referendum on the Maastricht Treaty, in 1992. There is also little chance that Denmark will join a common EU foreign and military policy, in the near future, as favored by Berlin and Brussels. Because the single currency is perceived as the reason for Finland's economic crisis, that country's parliament will soon debate whether to hold a referendum on leaving the Euro zone. Great Britain will hold a referendum on exiting the EU by 2017, at the latest, with already a majority in favor, according to recent polls. In the Netherlands, demands are being raised to reduce the Schengen Zone to a "mini-Schengen." Following the convulsions in Southern Europe, the EU project - the foundation of German global policy - is also beginning to crumble in the North.

(Own report) - NATO's new "Southern Strategy" and further expansion of this war alliance are on the agenda of the NATO Foreign Ministers Conference, which begins today in Brussels. Since some time, Southern European member nations have been pushing for broadening the focus of the alliance's activities beyond the limits of Eastern Europe, to concentrate more on the Arab World, reported Karl-Heinz Kamp, President of the Federal College for Security Studies (BAKS). This is now up for debate. The idea is to reinforce the ties to countries, such as Jordan or Tunisia, as "partners" - and exclusively equip and provide them with training for waging war in the Arab World. The fact that NATO also will propose membership to Montenegro, Kamp explains, is primarily directed at Russia. NATO wants to show Moscow that, in its acceptance of new members, NATO is not willing to take other powers' interests into consideration. As the President of BAKS points out, the accent will now be oriented much stronger toward accepting Finland and Sweden's membership into the war alliance, rather than an eventual Ukrainian membership.

(Own report) - Leaders of the Crimean Tartars, who have been blocking the supply of electricity to Crimea for the past few days, have good contacts to the German political establishment. Years ago, Mustafa Jemilev and Refat Chubarov, who were involved in the sabotage action, had held talks on closer ties between Crimea and the West with officials of the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs and with the German government's Representative for ethnic German immigration to Germany. Just two and a half weeks ago, they discussed with the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security, Federica Mogherini, the "de-occupation of Crimea" and the necessary "peaceful actions, in particular with respect to power supply." The Crimean Tartars, who are currently cooperating with fascist organizations and ultra-rightwing battalions, have been elected to the Ukrainian parliament on the electoral list of President Petro Poroshenko's party. According to an expert, Poroshenko is "instrumentalizing" them for "his foreign policy" objectives. Jemilev also has good contacts to the US political establishment. Among the Crimean Tartars, he and Chubarov, who in Berlin enjoy exclusive recognition, are competing with Tartar Salafists - some of whom are currently fighting on the battlefields of Syria - and with Russia-oriented Tartar organizations.

(Own report) - Berlin is watching with apprehension as the conflict between Kiev and Moscow escalates again following Ukraine's shutting down electrical power to Crimea. Last week, Crimean Tatars and members of the fascist Right Sector are suspected to have blown up several electric pylons, cutting off the supply of power to Crimea. Crimea receives nearly 80 percent of its electricity from Ukraine. The Berlin-sponsored Ukrainian government sees itself as incapable of repairing the power lines. It has imposed - in accordance with the embargo policies of the EU and the USA - its own trade embargo on the peninsula. In the summer 2014, the EU and the USA began imposing economic sanctions on Crimea, which was aggravated by Kiev's embargo of water and blockade of traffic for over a year. Ukraine will squander its remaining sympathy on the peninsula, warn observers. A similar development had been observed in the Georgian secessionist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia since the 2008 Georgian-Russian war. Early this week, the German government applied pressure on Kiev to restore electricity to Crimea, to avoid another escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which Germany considers detrimental. To no avail - the escalation began yesterday.

(Own report) - Within the German establishment, individual criticism of the expansion of military and police operations in the fight against the "Islamic State" (IS) is being raised. Last Friday, following the intensification of French airstrikes against IS positions and the French government's imposition of a state of emergency, the EU interior ministers initiated new domestic repressive measures. In fighting IS, it should not be forgotten that in the primarily military and police-led post-9/11 "war on terror," the "number of violence-prone Islamists, who have joined terrorist groups" has not diminished but rather "multiplied dangerously," warns a renowned Middle East expert. Referring to the fact that the majority of the Paris attackers were citizens of France or Belgium, Hamburg's Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy (IFSH) asks, "what is the purpose of war rhetoric, when a large portion of the problem is homemade?" This "talk about 'defending our values'," will only "steady the stirrups" for a police/military buildup, according to a longtime expert of German/European think tanks. There is a "sorely felt discrepancy between the values we proclaim and reality," which is a "breeding ground for IS." "We are certainly the rich, but since quite some time, no longer the 'good guys,' in the eyes of many. And some even view us as the barbarians."