European Union

A delegation of the Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET), led by Chair David McAllister, travelled to Washington D.C. and Richmond, Virginia from 21 to 24 July 2025. This was the Committee's first official visit to the United States following last year's elections on both sides of the Atlantic.
During the trip, Members discussed how to deepen transatlantic ties, enhance collective security, reinforce the shared commitment to supporting Ukraine, and tackle common challenges such as China's expanding global influence and the situation in the Middle East. Insights gathered from the visit will inform the Committee's ongoing work on the own initiative report on EU-US political relations.
Location : USA
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A delegation of seven Members of the Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET), led by Chair David McAllister, travelled to Uruguay and Argentina from 26 to 29 May 2025. Members engaged in high-level discussions regarding the EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement which was concluded last December in Montevideo, Uruguay. The findings from this visit will contribute to the preparatory work for the consent procedure on the political and cooperation aspects of the Agreement, for which AFET is responsible.
More broadly, this mission allowed to exchange views on bilateral, regional and multilateral cooperation, as well as geopolitical issues such as Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and China's expanding influence in Latin America.
Location : Uruguay and Argentina
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A delegation from the Committee on Foreign Affairs, led by the Chair David McAllister (EPP, DE), visited the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 14-15 April and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from 15-16 April. The visit was a very timely opportunity to assess EU’s cooperation with both countries and with the GCC and to discuss about the risk of regional tensions by promoting trust building among the different actors.
Among other issues, Members of the Committee on Foreign Affairs debated on the situation in Yemen and regional cooperation, including relations with Iran.
Mission report
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Members met with Moldovan President Maia Sandu, Speaker of the Parliament Igor Grosu, several government members, including Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Mihai Popșoi, Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration of Moldova Cristina Gherasimov, Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration Oleg Serebrian and Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Development and Digitalization Dumitru Alaiba, as well as parliamentarians and representatives of civil society and think tanks.
The AFET delegation reaffirmed support for the ongoing reforms of the Moldovan government that aim to bring the country closer to the EU and highlighted the opportunities to achieve economic growth and a tangible improvement in people's livelihoods through the implementation of the Reform and Growth Plan for Moldova.
Mission report
Source : © European Union, 2025 - EP

A seven-member strong delegation of the Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET) travelled to the United Kingdom from 28 to 30 October 2024. This was the first official visit of the Committee abroad in this parliamentary term. The delegation discussed possibilities for strengthening of the EU-UK partnership, in particular in foreign and security affairs.
This visit was also an opportunity to exchange views on issues of global and regional significance such as the Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East and tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
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Belgium's capital region has been without a government for 15 months, as the city sinks deeper into debt

Spanish media reported that the organisers would meet to decide whether to resume the expedition later on Monday

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Bulgarian authorities suspect Russia was behind the attack, the Commission said, adding that it is up to Sofia to investigate as the incident occurred in its airspace

The ten families, en route to Germany on Monday, only received visas after they went to court

Teresa Ribera, Marta Kos, Hadja Lahbib and Michael McGrath tell civil servants that the EU's values are "non-negotiable"

The European Central Bank chief also expressed "concern" about the impact of France's political turmoil on the eurozone economy

By Jérôme Deyris (Centre for European Studies at Sciences Po, France), Bart Stellinga (Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy) and Matthias Thiemann (Centre for European Studies at Sciences Po, France)

In November 2017, Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot expressed worries that ‘inflation expectations are bearing an awful lot of weight in monetary policy these days, considering the range and depth of unanswered questions about them’. Yet, five years later, he stressed that ‘the ECB needs to be clear that its primary mandate is to safeguard medium-term inflation and that it will not hesitate to act to prevent a de-anchoring of [inflation] expectations’. What made this central banker first express doubt and then reaffirm the relevance of a concept – inflation expectations – considered a cornerstone of monetary policymaking?

In our recent JCMS article we argue that this shift is not an example of neutral policy learning, but instead a strategic move in the battle over shaping the ECB’s monetary policy. We show how national central bank governors opportunistically invoke or challenge monetary theories, concepts, metrics, and data to support or undermine a particular course of action. In this vein, we demonstrate how governors from the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the German Central Bank (the Bundesbank), so-called “hawks” who generally prefer restrictive monetary policies, systematically differ in their rhetorical strategies from governors from the Banca d’Italia and Banco de España, so-called “doves” who favour accommodative policies.

Crucially, these actors shift rhetorical strategies once economic circumstances change and particular concepts or data metrics become more or less relevant to make the case for their policy preferences. Depending on the “inflation season” (so whether inflation is below or above target) governors may strategically adopt or abandon data and policy principles. Such migrations are symmetric: when economic circumstances change, hawkish central bankers embrace ideas that had been defended by the opposing, dovish camp, while dovish governors “migrate” in the opposite direction. Our analysis thus shows that central bankers’ policy preferences strongly affect their engagement with monetary theories and metrics, challenging the common portrayal (also by themselves) of central bankers as neutral, science-based policymakers.

Strategic migrations of hawks and doves

To make our case, the article is based on a quantitative and qualitative analysis of all public speeches by governors of the “big five” Eurozone countries: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands. These central banks carry substantial weight in internal ECB discussions and provide a balanced sample of doves (Italy, Spain) and hawks (Germany and the Netherlands), with France occupying an intermediate position. We focus on two periods in particular: the 2014-2017 period, during which inflation fell below the ECB’s 2% target, with threats of deflation, and the 2021-2023 period, in which inflation surged.

During the low-inflation period (2014-2017), the “hawkish” Dutch and German governors adopted a rhetorical strategy to challenge the ECB’s unconventional accommodative monetary policies, such as quantitative easing and negative interest rates. They argued that low inflation was mainly caused by decreasing energy prices, suggesting this would boost the economy without the need for an external intervention. They used long-term inflation expectations data, which are inherently more stable, to argue that there was no risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations, thus casting doubt on the need for further action. When these metrics started to decrease, they expressed doubts about the indicators themselves, pointing to their limitations in capturing “true” inflation expectations. Finally, the hawks argued that accommodative policies could have undesirable side effects for financial stability that should be factored into monetary policy decisions.

Meanwhile, “dovish” governors from Italy and Spain defended the opposite position to support these accommodative policies. They stressed weak demand rather than energy prices as the main driver of low inflation. They primarily used short-term indicators to warn about the danger of de-anchoring inflation expectations, triggering the above cited statement by Knot (DNB) that the link between inflation expectations and actual inflation is not that clear. Finally, the doves argued that the ECB’s price stability mandate should override all other considerations, with any negative side effects of the ECB’s expansionary course to be addressed by other policies. In the words of Italian governor Visco: ‘the primary objective of monetary policy is to maintain price stability and […] should any threat to financial stability materialize, macro-prudential measures should be used instead’.

When inflation rose substantially after 2021, these rhetorical strategies reversed completely. Desiring bold, restrictive actions, the same hawks who had dismissed inflation expectations as being unreliable now suddenly cited them as a crucial justification for tighter policy (see Figure 1). The doves who had previously championed bold action for price stability now emphasised supply-side factors exclusively, using the hawks’ earlier argument that energy price fluctuations would automatically correct undesirable price dynamics. They warned of the financial instability risks from aggressive monetary tightening, arguing that the uncertain consequences of monetary policy action called for restraint, when earlier they had asked to ignore them. In return, Bundesbank governor Nagel echoed the doves’ argument from the 2014-2017 period that “the monetary policy stance is not the instrument of choice for addressing financial stability issues. The primary objective of the ECB’s monetary policy is to maintain price stability. And this target has definitely not yet been achieved”.

Figure 1 Shifting concerns about inflation expectations

This figure is based on a manual coding of all paragraphs in governors’ speeches that mention “inflation expectations”

Three rhetorical strategies

Our work highlights that central bankers, not unlike politicians, use rhetorical strategies to further their policy preferences. We identify three types of tactics. The first is “selective blindness”: systematically highlighting data that supports their stance while ignoring contradictory evidence. For example, in 2014-2017 doves cherry-picked short-term inflation expectations to push for bold, expansionary policies, but in 2021-2023 pointed to long-term measures to call for restraint.

The second strategy involves “strategic scepticism”: expressing doubts about theories and metrics when these could support undesirable policy actions. For example, when market-based inflation expectations indicators suggested that expansionary action was needed, the Dutch and German governors questioned their reliability due to measurement problems, or even called the concept into question. When such indicators supported hawkish stances during 2021-2023, these methodological concerns disappeared.

The third tactic is “weaponised uncertainty”: framing economic uncertainty to justify either caution or bold action. In 2014-2017, hawks argued that uncertainty warranted caution, while doves claimed that decisive action would reduce market uncertainty. Again, these framings reversed during the high-inflation period.

Conclusions

Overall, these findings advance our understanding of the politics of European central banking and beyond. Our paper challenges the Eurosystem’s portrayal as a cohesive epistemic community and with it the notion that European monetary policy can be “scientifically” depoliticised. It shows that national preferences remain important drivers of technocrats’ behaviour, even when they are expected to make decisions “as Europeans”. And we show that economic concepts can be flexible instruments rather than rigid guidelines constraining technocrats’ actions.

We end on a potentially more positive note, as there may also be an upside to central bankers’ strategic exchanges. By presenting arguments on inflation dynamics in a pointed manner and counterbalancing each other’s blind spots, their public interventions help the internal debate move toward a balanced compromise. This may be preferred over a “groupthink” dynamic in which all birds flock to one viewpoint at first and then migrate to another later.

Jérôme Deyris is a postdoctoral researcher at the Centre for European Studies at Sciences Po, France. His PhD, completed in 2023 at Université Paris Nanterre, explored the drivers and consequences of green central banking. He is now involved in a larger project to study the political economy of independent central banks.

https://www.sciencespo.fr/centre-etudes-europeennes/en/directory/deyris-jerome/

Bart Stellinga is a senior research fellow at the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy (WRR). He obtained his doctorate at the University of Amsterdam in 2018. In his academic work he focuses on how policymakers aim to limit financial instability through financial regulation and monetary policy.

https://english.wrr.nl/about-us/office/bart-stellinga

Matthias Thiemann is Professor of European Public Policy at the Centre for European Studies at Sciences Po, France. In his research he focuses on two areas: the regulation of financial markets and the role of public development banks in the European Union. Most recently, he published “Taming the Cycles of Finance” at Cambridge University Press.

https://www.sciencespo.fr/centre-etudes-europeennes/en/directory/thiemann-matthias/

The post How Eurozone central banks strategically invoke monetary theories and data to further their policy preferences appeared first on Ideas on Europe.

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