Diplomacy & Crisis News

Joseph Staline était méchant. Cette affirmation intrépide, que nul ou presque n'a osé formuler ces quarante dernières années, est au cœur du documentaire Apocalypse : Staline, réalisé par Isabelle Clarke et Daniel Costelle (France 2, 3 novembre 2015). Les images colorisées s'accompagnent d'un (...) / URSS, Audiovisuel, Automobile, Économie, Histoire, Groupe de pression - 2015/12

A Russian S-400 air defense missile system makes its way through Red Square during a military parade in Moscow. File photo AP.

The Turkish F-16 that shot down a Russian SU-24 attack plane last week near the Turkish-Syrian border has created an international incident that rivals with the first few chapters of any Tom Clancy novel. Air operations against ISIS and Syrian rebels in Syria has created a situation where Turkey, other NATO countries and Russia are all operating aircrafts in close proximity.

The greatest fear of NATO commanders was realized when Turkish authorities gave the green light for the F-16 to shoot down the SU-24, resulting in one pilot killed and other Russian soldiers possibly killed or injured while rescuing the second member of the two-man crew. Turkey, a NATO member state, would have the right to claim that an attack by Russia on Turkey is an attack on all NATO members, but considering the order to shoot down the SU-24 was ill conceived and the SU-24 was not a real threat to Turkey, NATO members would do well to tamp down the rhetoric against the grieved party who has lost a pilot and soldiers and never threatened Turkish security to any great measure.

The predictable response to the incident by Russian President Putin was to shun Turkish officials in international forums and openly claim that Turkey took aggressive actions against its aircraft in order to protect oil flows from ISIS-controlled territory into Turkey itself. Russia has recently been targeting ISIS oil resources in order to financially starve the terrorist organization that uses this resource to supply its military and resulting in human rights abuses and genocide against minority groups in the region. The lack of attention given to ISIS oil resources by NATO has given way to assumptions by Russia that Turkey took aggressive actions against Russia to protect the oil reserves.

Another theory is that Russia wants to take the lead in the region by targeting resources that keep ISIS afloat. Russia’s aggressive strikes appeal to those communities that want to stop mass murder of ethnic minorities in the region, disregarding the notion that attacking energy resources in Syria and Iraq may cause significant environmental damage. Whatever the reason, the actions by the Turkish F-16 against the Russian aircraft were not morally legitimate, even if legally it can be argued that Turkey may have had the right to take an aggressive stand against a Russian aircraft flying over its territory.

Years of discussions and sanctions blocking the sale of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system to Iran ended a few months ago when Russia decided to finally sell the advanced missile system to Iran. Despite U.S. officials believing that the nuclear deal would block the sale for many years, Russian officials moved ahead swiftly after the agreement was signed to fulfill the S-300s order. In the aftermath of the incident with Turkey, the next generation of Russian surface-to-air missile that concerned U.S. officials for so many years is now being deployed in Syria. The effectiveness, range and crew of the newer S-400 “Triumph” missile will operate as a Russian air defense network in northern Syria, covering much of Syria and reaching into Turkey, Israel and even as far as Cyprus.

While NATO officials do not believe Russia will target NATO aircrafts, a recent decline in NATO sorties has taken place upon the announcement of the S-400 deployment. Anti-aircraft missile systems have become a major strategic asset ever since the Vietnam War, and allow the party that has control of the system to pick and choose how an air strategy can be applied, or halted in a given territory. With the S-400 radars able to view all air activity in Syria and Turkey, missiles could target and hit Turkish and NATO planes in Turkey itself.

Putin has decided to create an Iron Dome of his own, enveloping Turkish air squadrons and bases within the range of the S-400. Retaliation against Turkey and NATO has not taken place, but with the S-400 Triumph as part of the increased air defense over Russian and Syria aircrafts in the region, NATO will be motivated to ease tensions and perhaps re-consider NATO’s future obligations towards Turkey itself.

L’impact psychologique de l’attentat suicide en Tunisie le 25 novembre qui a coûté la vie à douze membres de la garde présidentielle est peut-être plus important que celui des attaques contre les touristes étrangers en mars et juin 2015 au Bardo et à Sousse. La garde présidentielle est un corps d’élite assurant la protection du président, du Parlement, et de la présidence du gouvernement. Le symbole est extrêmement fort. L’objectif des commanditaires a été, sans nul doute, d’approfondir les divisions au sein de la société et de la classe politique en mettant en lumière un Etat incapable d’assurer sa propre sécurité, y compris dans la capitale.

Le nouveau numéro de Politique étrangère (4-2015) vient de paraître ! Il consacre un dossier à la justice pénale internationale, ainsi que de nombreux articles liés à l’actualité comme les fluctuations du cours du pétrole, les primaires américaines ou encore les modèles de prévention de la radicalisation en Europe.

Née des deux conflits mondiaux, l’idée de justice pénale internationale a mis un demi-siècle à se concrétiser dans des institutions pérennes, et des concepts juridiques indépendants des conjonctures de crises. Le tribunal pour l’ex-Yougoslavie, le tribunal d’Arusha, la création de la Cour pénale internationale témoignent, entre autres, des réelles avancées des années 1990. Le dossier que présente Politique étrangère éclaire ces avancées et leurs limites.

La Cour pénale internationale n’est pas universellement reconnue ; elle ne couvre pas tous les problèmes juridiques que posent crimes de guerre et génocides ; et elle n’est pas non plus la seule forme de justice imaginable face à ces événements. L’idée même de justice pénale internationale est aujourd’hui à la fois de plus en plus sollicitée et de plus en plus contestée : deux bonnes raisons d’évaluer ses résultats, rares acquis d’un temps où l’on croyait le monde saisi d’un irrépressible besoin d’unité.

Ce numéro de Politique étrangère s’attache à d’autres dimensions essentielles du jeu international : la redéfinition des rapports de puissance, à tous niveaux (Chine, Éthiopie…), ou les incertitudes des marchés énergétiques (à travers les énigmatiques variations des cours du pétrole)…

Après les attentats du 13 novembre, on s’attachera particulièrement à l’article qui étudie les modèles de prévention de la radicalisation et de déradicalisation mis en œuvre dans trois pays européens.

Découvrez le sommaire complet ici.

Téléchargez le dossier de presse ici.

Téléchargez gratuitement l’article de Marie-Claire Aoun, « Une ère nouvelle d’abondance pétrolière ? », ici.

Achetez le numéro 4-2015 de Politique étrangère ici.

Abonnez-vous à Politique étrangère pour les 4 numéros de l’année 2016  ici ou à cette adresse : revues@armand-colin.com.

 

The Great Wall of China. Source: Severin, stalder via Wikipedia.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has led one revolution away from capitalism and back again in its sixty-six year rule. Now it might be about to lead another. With the planned Paris conference on climate change due to start on November 30 Beijing has been releasing some significant-sounding statements on moving China’s huge economy towards a greener phase. Xi Jinping has shown himself to be China’s most powerful and energetic leader since Deng Xiaoping, who first brought market reforms to the giant and impoverished communist nation. The move to a green-based economy would require massive restructuring and the tackling of vested interests that profit from the current set up. But it is no more radical than the break-neck development China pursued over the last two decades.

Critics of the CCP have noted that it continues to play statistical games with inconvenient facts, most recently admitting that it has under-reported its coal consumption for many years. The new figures suggest that Chinese emissions have been a significantly larger driver of global warming than previously admitted. This feeds into perceptions of China’s government as an entity that talks the talk but struggles to walk the walk when it comes to facing up to the issues of climate change and public health disasters caused by its environmental policies.

Nonetheless regular public scandals over pollution and the mass protests they spawn show that there is public demand at home for China’s one-party system to take some responsibility in setting and enforcing standards to tackle the issue. The protests unite China’s growing middle classes with its poor migrant laborers, and its more privileged city dwellers with the hard-scrabble rural peasants out in the countryside. Despite China’s extensive censorship and pervasive security forces, protests about social conditions break out across the country with monotonous regularity. The government’s response is often to clamp down on the organizers but also to offer local concessions to appease the demonstrators.

China’s huge internal security budget reveals that the Party is uneasy about the ferment of social changes it has unleashed with its modernization of the country. Protests in China are no longer illegal so long as they do not call for the downfall of the CCP but attending them can be risky. Despite this tens of thousands of single issue protests break out across the country every year according to human rights groups, the vast majority concerned with corruption, development concerns or environmental problems. For all China is a one-party state, the regime of Xi Jinping is keen to stay ahead of the issues that matter to the Chinese public, as shown by his draconian anti-corruption campaign since coming to power. The idea of a nation-wide green movement taking off in the country that could not be assuaged by closing an unpopular chemical plant or sacking a hated local government official is anathema to Beijing.

President Xi Jinping has therefore shown himself to be more inclined to take green issues into account than his predecessors, who focused more closely on economic development. He has committed to capping carbon emissions by 2030 and turning to renewable sources for 20 percent of the country’s energy. By 2013 China had even become the world’s largest producer of wind and solar power. Increasingly the CCP must balancing its mission to lift the many more millions of Chinese who remain in grinding poverty against the costs of climate change and pollution that creating this wealth often entails. With a growing middle class increasingly outspoken about living in smog-ridden cities reminiscent of the early industrial revolution, Beijing is looking at radical changes in how its economy operates.

Some observers think that China has realized it must go green for its own survival, but just as likely is that the CCP has calculated that, as with corruption, the limits of public tolerance for pollution, public health scandals and massive industrial accidents has been tested to dangerous limits. Since 1989 Chinese politics has worked on the operating principle that popular discontent must never be allowed to build up unchecked. The Arab Spring protests of 2010-11 which swept away a clutch of fossilized and underperforming authoritarian regimes in the Middle East with a wave of street protests were seen as a warning in Beijing. As a result it stepped up repression of civil society activists including environmental activists, anticorruption campaigners or defense lawyers, but scrutinized many of their concerns more intently.

Beijing’s monopoly on political power still rests on showing that it can deliver economic growth and rising living standards. But the costs of a rapid industrial development, and the attendant explosion of consumerism among 1.5 billion people have taken their toll. Under Xi Jinping it has become a mature middle-sized economy that is now pondering what kind of society it would like to be by 2050. Affluence is creating more interest in social issues. People power movements are already a well-established phenomenon in local politics in China going back many years, but there has been no national movement since the suppression of pro-democracy protestors in 1989. The CCP fears that allowing any widespread organization on social issues will quickly turn political and lead to the overthrow of the communist system. It cites examples such as the Polish Solidarity trade union movement which led to the eventual democratization of Poland over of the course of the 1980s or the more recent Color Revolutions.

Unlike various secular Arab regimes however, the CCP has long proved adept at anticipating and diffusing popular concerns before they become a mortal threat to the Party’s political survival. The suppression of pro-democracy protests stalled but did not stop a pre-existing economic program to develop the Chinese economy. Once rising living standards had been achieved and official corruption was becoming a pressing issue the Party moved to clean up these Augean stables itself, without subjecting CCP cadres to an independent judiciary. It had already begun to soften its rhetoric on global warming under the previous leadership team around Hu Jintao. There is no reason to suppose that as green issues becomes more important globally and locally that the leadership of the CCP will not move to co-opt and ingratiate itself with the movements that emerge to tackle it. Whether this will help or harm the cause of green politics in China itself will be determined by the CCP’s ability to deliver on its promises. If Beijing cannot, it may find itself facing the very public protests it is currently trying to head off.

November saw further military escalation and setbacks in Syria, particularly after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane it claimed had violated its airspace. Meanwhile, several countries faced extremist attacks claimed by the Islamic State (IS), including in Lebanon, France and Bangladesh. Violence also rose in Turkey between the state and Kurdish insurgents. In Venezuela, political tensions and violence increased ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for 6 December and could worsen, while both Nepal and Kosovo faced deepening political crises. In a positive step forward, Burkina Faso and Myanmar experienced peaceful and openly-contested elections last month.

/ Europe, Démocratie, Démographie, Parti politique, Politique - Politique / Europe, Démocratie, Démographie, Parti politique, Politique - Politique

/ Europe, Démocratie, Élections, Politique - Politique / Europe, Démocratie, Élections, Politique - Politique

Ситуация вокруг махачкалинской мечети на улице Котрова вступает в новую стадию. Духовное управление мусульман Дагестана, в чье ведение перешла мечеть, решило предоставить джамаату полное право выбора нового имама.

(Own report) - NATO's new "Southern Strategy" and further expansion of this war alliance are on the agenda of the NATO Foreign Ministers Conference, which begins today in Brussels. Since some time, Southern European member nations have been pushing for broadening the focus of the alliance's activities beyond the limits of Eastern Europe, to concentrate more on the Arab World, reported Karl-Heinz Kamp, President of the Federal College for Security Studies (BAKS). This is now up for debate. The idea is to reinforce the ties to countries, such as Jordan or Tunisia, as "partners" - and exclusively equip and provide them with training for waging war in the Arab World. The fact that NATO also will propose membership to Montenegro, Kamp explains, is primarily directed at Russia. NATO wants to show Moscow that, in its acceptance of new members, NATO is not willing to take other powers' interests into consideration. As the President of BAKS points out, the accent will now be oriented much stronger toward accepting Finland and Sweden's membership into the war alliance, rather than an eventual Ukrainian membership.

(Photo Credit: AP Photo/Getty Images)

With respect to the broader issue of my critics…I think that when you listen to what they actually have to say, what they’re proposing, most of the time, when pressed, they describe things that we’re already doing. Maybe they’re not aware that we’re already doing them. Some of them seem to think that if I were just more bellicose in expressing what we’re doing, that that would make a difference—because that seems to be the only thing that they’re doing, is talking as if they’re tough. But I haven’t seen particular strategies that they would suggest that would make a real difference.

President Obama speaking at a Press Conference in Turkey on November 16, 2015

Last week both Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush gave major talks outlining their respective plans for defeating terrorists. Those two presidential candidates’ views will be my focus for this blog. In a recent article in the Washington Post, the author noted that with the exception of both candidates calling for no fly zones, “overall the candidates and the president are talking about doing basically the same three things to fight the Islamic State: airstrikes, bolstering local forces, getting the world on the same page.”

I think that’s too broad a generalization and does not get at the heart of all the issues. As a Veteran and retired intelligence professional, when I sit down and listen to what each candidate has to say on national security issues, I’m looking for the answer to two questions. First, does the candidate really understand the depth of the problem and related issues? Second, what are their proposed solutions and third are they feasible?

Do the candidates understand the scope of the problem?

In 2012, at the request of the then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, the Department of Defense published Decade of War Volume I Enduring Lessons from the Past Decade of Operations. The purpose was to ensure we learned the lessons from the previous decade of war. The first lesson learned discussed was “a failure to recognize, acknowledge, and accurately define the operational environment led to a mismatch between forces, capabilities, missions, and goals. The operational environment encompasses not only the threat but also the physical, informational, social, cultural, religious, and economic elements of the environment.” Bottom line is: if you don’t get that right, then the strategy you develop won’t work.

Jeb Bush says “Despite elaborate efforts by the administration to avoid even calling it by name, one of the very gravest threats we face today comes from radical Islamic terrorists.” I don’t dispute that but how do you explain the fact that there have been many reports that former members of Saddam Hussein’s Army now make up a lot of the military leadership and intelligence positions within ISIS? Why is that?

Clinton seems to have a better understanding of the complexity of the issues, pointing out that under former Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki’s regime the Sunnis tribes were betrayed and forgotten. She feels that if we are going to win on the ground, we need to bring the Sunnis back on board. Bush also stresses the need to bring the Sunnis on board, but says the problem was caused by the premature withdrawal of U.S. Forces leaving a void that ISIS filled. I agree with Bush that the U.S. withdrawal was a mistake but wonder: if Maliki’s regime had been more inclusive, would the end result have been the same?

I participated in a Department of Defense media program that gave me the opportunity to receive briefings and ask questions to many of the senior Generals involved in the training of Iraqi military forces. One question I asked concerned the Iraqi sectarian issues. Using our own history as an example, I said as long as northern military forces occupied the south after the Civil War, African Americans were able to integrate into southern society, holding government offices and positions. As soon as the troops left, white southerners enacted Jim Crow laws which restricted the freedom of the former slaves. It was not till 100 years later that a lot of the problems caused by these laws were addressed and reversed. What were the chances that the sectarian issues in Iraq between different ethnic and religious groups would prevent them from having an effective and inclusive government? I would pose the same question today to the Presidential candidates.

As the recent attack against an hotel in Mali by a group associated with al-Qaeda reminds us, it is not just ISIS nor is the conflict confined to just Iraq and Syria. Addressing the topic in their annual posture statement, United States Africa Command reported:

The network of al-Qaeda and its affiliates and adherents continues to exploit Africa’s under-governed regions and porous borders to train and conduct attacks. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant is expanding its presence in North Africa. Terrorists with allegiances to multiple groups are expanding their collaboration in recruitment, financing, training, and operations, both within Africa and transregionally.

In its recently released 2015 Global Terrorism Index, the Institute for Economics and Peace stated that the Nigerian based group Boko Haram, which declared allegiance to ISIS in March of this year, was the most deadly terrorist group. “The country witnessed the largest increase in terrorist deaths ever recorded by any country, increasing by over 300 per cent to 7,512 fatalities.”

The “so what” factor for me is that over two million Nigerians have been displaced internally because of the actions of Boko Harum. Another 175,000 have sought refuge in neighboring Chad, Niger, and Cameron. The UN says they’re critically short of funding needed to provide assistance. Are we witnessing the development of another major refugee crisis? Is it not better to destroy and/or neutralize terrorist groups rather than have another large number of people feel the only solution is to seek refugee status and to move to another country?

In her talk, Hillary Clinton stressed that this was a worldwide fight and required a worldwide solution. Two statements stood out for me:

Now, let’s be clear about what we’re facing. Beyond Paris in recent days, we’ve seen deadly terrorist attacks in Nigeria, Lebanon, Iraq and Turkey, and a Russian civilian airline destroyed over the Sinai. At the heart of today’s new landscape of terror is ISIS. They persecute religious and ethnic minorities; kidnap and behead civilians; murder children. They systematically enslave, torture and rape women and girls…

But we have learned that we can score victories over terrorist leaders and networks, only to face metastasizing threats down the road, so we also have to play and win the long game. We should pursue a comprehensive counterterrorism strategy, one that embeds our mission against ISIS within a broader struggle against radical jihadism that is bigger than any one group, whether it’s Al Qaida or ISIS or some other network.

Looking at Jeb Bush’s views expressed in his talk last week at The Citadel and his recent remarks at the Reagan Presidential Library, he says it’s a worldwide problem yet his proposed solutions only address two problem areas: “My strategy meets the unique circumstances in each of the two countries, Iraq and Syria, in which ISIS now has territory.”

He speaks of the importance of allies but again with the exception of Egypt and Tunisia, he only mentions countries in the Middle East:

In all of this, the United States must engage with friends and allies, and lead again in that vital region. Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the most populous Arab country and the wealthiest, are important partners of the United States. Those relationships have been badly mishandled by this administration. Both countries are key to a better-coordinated regional effort against terrorism. We need to restore trust, and work more closely with them against common threats. We have very capable partners, likewise, in the United Arab Emirates, who are willing and able to take the fight to the extremists. We have a moderate and quite formidable leader in King Abdullah of Jordan. We have an ally in the new democratic government in Tunisia, and a fragile democracy in Lebanon—nations that are both under assault by radicals and terrorists. Across the region, responsible governments need no persuading of what the moment requires.

In contrast, Hillary Clinton remarked:

We’ve had a lot of conversation about ISIS in the last week, let’s not forget al-Qaeda. They still have the most sophisticated bombmakers, ambitious plotters and active affiliates in places like Yemen and North Africa, so we can’t just focus on Iraq and Syria, we need to intensify our counter—our counterterrorism efforts on a wider scope.

What are their proposed solutions and are they feasible?

Again Jeb Bush’s strategy solutions focus on Iraq and Syria. For Iraq he is proposing the following actions:
– Support the Iraqi forces
– Consistent air power to support local ground forces
– Give current forces greater range of action
– Provide more support to the Kurds
– Diplomatic strategy for enduring political stability in Iraq

For Syria he proposes:
– A coordinated international effort is required to give Syria’s moderate forces the upper hand
– Expand and improve the recruitment and training of Syrian opposition fighters
– Establish multiple safe zones in Syria
– Along with partners create an expanding no fly zone to prevent more crimes by the regime

For me, he left unanswered how he would fight terrorism in other regions of the world.

Hillary Clinton’s strategy has three main elements:
– Defeat ISIS in Syria, Iraq, and across the Middle East.
– Disrupt and dismantle the growing terrorist infrastructure that facilitates the flow of fighters, financing, arms, and propaganda around the world.
– Harden our defenses and those of our allies against external and homegrown threats.

For each of these points, she provides a great deal of detail. At least for now her more thorough and detailed views seem to be winning over support. A Washington Post/ABC news poll indicated voters find her more trusted on handling the terrorism issue than her Republican rivals.

Clinton also stressed the importance of both political parties working together to defeat terrorism:

When New York was attacked on 9/11, we had a Republican president, a Republican governor and a Republican mayor, and I worked with all of them. We pulled together and put partisanship aside to rebuild our city and protect our country.

In his Reagan Library talk Bush stated:

Who can seriously argue that America and our friends are safer today than in 2009, when the President and Secretary Clinton—the storied ‘team of rivals’—took office? So eager to be the history-makers, they failed to be the peacemakers. It was a case of blind haste to get out, and to call the tragic consequences somebody else’s problem. Rushing away from danger can be every bit as unwise as rushing into danger, and the costs have been grievous.

I’m a firm believer in lessons learned but there is a lot of blame to go around. I think many would argue that Congressional gridlock and its bad relationship with the President has had a major negative impact on national security policy. I’ve blogged before about the toll sequestration has taken on our military forces.

Have Presidential Candidates Proposed Anything New In The Fight Against Terrorism?

President Obama has been steadfast in his refusal to put large numbers of U.S. ground forces in the fight. Both Bush and Clinton advocate using ground forces in coordination with Iraqi and moderate Syrian Forces; but Clinton also stresses the need “to move simultaneously toward a political solution to the civil war that paves the way for a new government with new leadership, and to encourage more Syrians to take on ISIS as well”. Both candidates also advocate establishing no fly zones something President Obama has also resisted.

I’m an avid football fan. One of the mantras the experts always say is defense wins championships. During my time in the military, the mantra was: you can’t win a war with out putting troops on the ground. I agree. As to the feasibility of Clinton and Bush’s proposals, I’m not sold on an approach that relies heavily on local forces to fight terrorism. I still believe the best approach is establishment of an organization like NATO but focused on fighting terrorism. It would also have a standing rapid deployment force made up of coalition members that could be called upon when needed. If I were Queen for a day, I would add that concept to both of their strategies.

Again my views are my own. I think I’ll end here.

En mai 1970, la militante féministe américaine Joreen Freeman — engagée dans les mouvements sociaux — prononce une conférence au cours de laquelle elle met en lumière certains des écueils auxquels se heurtent les collectifs soucieux de s'émanciper des structures hiérarchiques associées aux partis (...) / Idées, Mouvement de contestation, Parti politique, Politique, Associations - 2015/01

Plus d'un siècle s'est écoulé depuis la publication de l'essai classique de Robert Michels, « Les Partis politiques ». Mais la question qu'il soulevait conserve son actualité : nos sociétés démocratiques seraient-elles condamnées à la domination des élus sur les électeurs ? / Allemagne, Italie, (...) / Allemagne, Italie, Démocratie, État, Histoire, Idées, Idéologie, Inégalités, Intellectuels, Parti politique, Politique, Syndicalisme - 2015/01

À l’occasion du lancement de la COP21 (21e Conference of Parties) qui a lieu à Paris jusqu’au 11 décembre, la rédaction de Politique étrangère vous invite à relire le Contrechamps publié dans le numéro d’été 2015 de Politique étrangère (2/2015) : « Climat : avant la Conférence de Paris », ainsi que la partie « Climat : vers la COP21 » publiée dans le RAMSES 2016.

Le premier article de ce dossier, « Climat : l’injustice faite au Sud », écrit par Sunita Narain, montre que les négociations sur le climat ne portent pas seulement sur la réduction des émissions mais également sur le droit au développement, et souligne l’un des enjeux majeurs, qui est de s’accorder sur une répartition équitable du budget carbone du monde.

« Le Forum économique mondial – qui rassemble chaque année à Davos la crème des puissants de ce monde – a dressé une liste des principaux dangers auxquels le monde serait confronté. Selon cette analyse, le changement climatique vient en première position des risques menaçant le monde pour les années à venir, si l’on conjugue les facteurs de probabilité et d’impact. Les liens étroits existant entre le changement climatique et les autres risques principaux doivent retenir encore davantage notre attention. Parmi ceux-ci, l’on pourrait citer : les inégalités économiques (en 3e position), les événements météorologiques extrêmes (5e position), la volatilité extrême des prix de l’énergie  (6e position), les conflits géopolitiques (7e position), et enfin les inondations et la sécurité hydrique (9e et 10e positions). Même les plus fortunés du monde s’accordent donc à dire que le monde est dans une situation critique, peut-être désespérée. »

Pour lire gratuitement l’article de Sunita Narain en intégralité, cliquez ici.

 

***

Le second article de ce dossier, « COP21 : quelles chances de succès ? », co-écrit par Christian de Perthuis et Raphaël Trotignon, montre que l’enjeu principal de la Conférence de Paris est de dépasser les visions concurrentes, en mettant en place un jeu d’incitations économiques pouvant conduire à un accord universel où chaque joueur s’engagerait à réduire ses émissions.

« La construction d’un accord international sur le climat renvoie à la question du « passager clandestin ». La perturbation climatique est liée au stock global de gaz à effet de serre présent dans l’atmosphère, qui n’est que faiblement corrélé au flux annuel d’émissions de chaque pays. Pour chaque acteur pris isolément, il n’y a pas de corrélation directe entre le niveau de l’effort engagé pour réduire ses émissions et le bénéfice qu’il en tirera sous forme de moindres dommages. De plus, les impacts les plus sévères sont éloignés dans le temps, ce qui incite chacun à reporter l’intégralité des coûts du changement climatique sur les générations futures. Dans un tel contexte, chaque joueur à intérêt à attendre que ses voisins lancent l’action ; la position idéale étant celle du « passager clandestin », qui ne ferait aucun effort quand tous les autres s’engageraient pour protéger le bien commun. Inversement, aucun acteur n’a intérêt à s’engager unilatéralement tant qu’il n’a pas la conviction que d’autres suivront dans le cadre d’une coalition plus large. »

Pour lire la suite de l’article de Christian de Perthuis et de Raphaël Trotignon, cliquez ici.

 

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Composé 8 articles, le dossier « Climat : vers la COP21 » publié en septembre dans le RAMSES 2016 éclaire les enjeux décisifs de la conférence de Paris sur le climat et pose des questions essentielles. La COP21 réussira-t-elle: 1) à définir une nouvelle donne internationale ? ; 2) à proposer des solutions crédibles aux problèmes de court terme ? ; 3) à crédibiliser définitivement une nouvelle forme de négociation universelle ?

« Pour qualifier ou non de succès la conférence de Paris, il faudra observer la cohérence de l’ensemble des textes adoptés, tant sur la complémentarité des engagements que sur leur degré de contrainte juridique. Si la construction est cohérente, les bases de la transformation seront posées. » (Marie-Claire Aoun, « S’adapter aux effets du réchauffement climatique »)

Pour en savoir plus sur les différents articles de ce dossier, en lire certains en intégralité, et découvrir des interviews de leurs auteurs, cliquez ici.

 

La violence des jeunes auteurs des attentats de Paris fonde une identité valorisante de héros moderne, d’un romantisme guerrier que les réseaux sociaux contribuent à construire dans un contexte européen d’intolérance raciste et d’absence d’avenir pour toute une jeunesse. L’organisation de l’État islamique la récupère à son profit en lui offrant un espace concret où elle peut s’incarner.

Collectif - Paru dans le Le Monde.fr | 27.11.2015 à 16h06 En réaction aux attaques terroristes de Daech, le président du CNRS a récemment appelé à « comprendre dans le détail et avec toute la profondeur nécessaire les phénomènes qui sont à l’œuvre aujourd’hui ». C’est une ambition forte et nécessaire. Il faut désormais s’en donner les moyens.
Une nouvelle génération de chercheurs
Au cours des dernières années, la France s’est dotée d’une nouvelle génération d’universitaires spécialistes des questions stratégiques et de défense : ils étudient les conflits armés comme les pensées et doctrines, les politiques et les phénomènes internationaux qui s’y rattachent. Des soutiens financiers leur ont été accordés par les pouvoirs publics, notamment par le ministère de la défense et l’Institut des hautes études de défense nationale qui dépend du Premier Ministre. Des organismes ont été créés, à l’image de l’Institut de Recherches Stratégiques de l’Ecole militaire (IRSEM) et une association pour les études sur la guerre et la stratégie (AEGES) a vu le jour pour tenter de structurer ce champ d’études encore peu implanté en France.
De telles évolutions étaient urgentes : le paysage stratégique international est de plus en plus complexe et la sécurité du territoire national est soumise à des pressions internes et externes, comme le rappelle tragiquement la série d’attentats qu’a connu notre pays en 2015. Le voisinage européen est le théâtre de guerres, nouvelles ou anciennes (Sahel, Proche-Orient, Ukraine), davantage d’acteurs non-étatiques émergent dans le paysage stratégique, les pratiques diplomatiques changent et les politiques étrangères et de défense sont redéfinies.

Une reconnaissance insuffisante

Malgré la centralité de ces enjeux, la reconnaissance institutionnelle et scientifique de l’analyse universitaire sur la guerre, en France, reste insuffisante si l’on compare avec d’autres pays. Au Royaume-Uni, en Allemagne ou aux Etats-Unis, les études sur la guerre et la stratégie, et plus largement l’étude des relations internationales, disposent d’un véritable écho et bénéficient de la présence d’importants départements pluridisciplinaires au sein des universités. Rien de tel en France, où la recherche internationale et stratégique est encore marginalisée et fragmentée.
Elle est d’abord marginalisée au sein de l’institution universitaire où ces sujets ne disposent pas de la légitimité et de la crédibilité scientifiques dont elles bénéficient à l’étranger. Dans le débat public, la recherche universitaire est aussi marginalisée par des experts auto-proclamés qui offrent aux médias des réactions à chaud. Dans le monde de la décision, enfin, elle se heurte au manque de temps des acteurs pour toute lecture supérieure à trois pages, et à leur réticence à accepter une vision extérieure à la machine d’Etat. Conséquence de cette situation, les meilleurs éléments de la recherche stratégique française sont sollicités et recrutés à l’étranger plutôt qu’en France, ce qui constitue une perte sèche pour notre pays.

L’étude de la guerre, en France, est également fragmentée en plusieurs disciplines (histoire, droit, science politique, géographie, sociologie, etc.) alors que, par définition, le phénomène guerrier est un « fait social total » qui relie tous les domaines de l’action humaine : l’objet « guerre » suppose une approche globale et transversale. Par conséquent, une collaboration des différentes disciplines du savoir au sein d’un même département universitaire pourrait grandement faire progresser notre connaissance des conflits contemporains.

La nécessité des approches universitaires de la guerre

Qu’apporte une analyse scientifique, universitaire, des questions stratégiques ? Une combinaison rigoureuse d’innovation conceptuelle et de connaissance empirique, régulièrement évaluée comme telle par des pairs. La mise par écrit d’un travail de terrain approfondi, au contact d’acteurs ou de populations de statuts extrêmement variés. Une complémentarité avec les expertises étatiques, qui ne traitent pas les mêmes sources et sont contraintes par des logiques bureaucratiques ou politiques. Cet apport-là ne saurait être compensé par quelques tweets d’« experts », par les synthèses prudentes de quelques institutions privées, par des notes internes de quelques bureaux d’études, ni, à l’Université, par des approches qui rejettent la spécificité des phénomènes internationaux et stratégiques.
Peut-on se passer aujourd’hui en France d’une telle analyse, simplement par manque de temps de lecture, pour préserver des rapports de force au sein de disciplines académiques consacrées, ou pour ménager le statut et la susceptibilité de tel habitué des médias ou des couloirs ministériels ? Est-il raisonnable de se priver d’interlocuteurs nationaux compétents pour échanger avec les chercheurs étrangers ? De penser que des non spécialistes des questions internationales pourront être pris au sérieux par des spécialistes, bien réels eux, de ces questions, dans d’autres Etats ? De balayer d’un revers de main les auteurs d’ouvrages rigoureux sur des situations internationales qui menacent notre sécurité ?

Écouter ce que les chercheurs spécialistes des questions internationales et stratégiques ont à dire n’est plus un luxe mais une nécessité. Leur donner les moyens d’exister institutionnellement (à travers des recrutements, des départements universitaires, des associations scientifiques, des chaires, des centres de recherche ou des observatoires) et cesser d’affaiblir les relais déjà existants est devenu prioritaire.

Thierry Balzacq, professeur de science politique à l’université de Namur en Belgique ; Frédéric Charillon, professeur de science politique à l’université d’Auvergne ; Jean-Vincent Holeindre, professeur de science politique à l’université de Poitiers et président de l’AEGES ; Jean-Baptiste Jeangène Vilmer, titulaire de la chaire d’études sur la guerre du Collège d’études mondiales (FMSH) ; Hugo Meijer, Lecturer en études de défense au King’s College London ; Alice Pannier, doctorante en relations internationales à Sciences Po ; Frédéric Ramel, professeur de science politique à Sciences Po ; Jean-Jacques Roche, professeur de science politique à l’université Paris-2 ; Olivier Schmitt, Associate Professor au Center for War Studies de l’université du Danemark du Sud.

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(Own report) - Leaders of the Crimean Tartars, who have been blocking the supply of electricity to Crimea for the past few days, have good contacts to the German political establishment. Years ago, Mustafa Jemilev and Refat Chubarov, who were involved in the sabotage action, had held talks on closer ties between Crimea and the West with officials of the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs and with the German government's Representative for ethnic German immigration to Germany. Just two and a half weeks ago, they discussed with the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security, Federica Mogherini, the "de-occupation of Crimea" and the necessary "peaceful actions, in particular with respect to power supply." The Crimean Tartars, who are currently cooperating with fascist organizations and ultra-rightwing battalions, have been elected to the Ukrainian parliament on the electoral list of President Petro Poroshenko's party. According to an expert, Poroshenko is "instrumentalizing" them for "his foreign policy" objectives. Jemilev also has good contacts to the US political establishment. Among the Crimean Tartars, he and Chubarov, who in Berlin enjoy exclusive recognition, are competing with Tartar Salafists - some of whom are currently fighting on the battlefields of Syria - and with Russia-oriented Tartar organizations.