Diplomacy & Crisis News

En remplaçant la distance par le temps, on fait apparaître une France redessinée par le chemin de fer au cours du XIXe siècle. À l'époque des diligences, le (long) temps de trajet pour gagner les villes les plus périphériques était quasiment proportionnel à la distance à vol d'oiseau : la carte (...) / France, Transports, Ville, Région, Service public - Espace et territoire

/ Europe, Transports, Région, Services - Espace et territoire / Europe, Transports, Région, Services - Espace et territoire

/ France, Transports, Service public, Région - Espace et territoire / France, Transports, Service public, Région - Espace et territoire

The Supreme Court eliminated the last remaining checks on executive power.

Reinforcing the bargain that strengthens security while expanding peaceful use.

Indian Produced T-90 Mk.III, a licensed and improved version of the Russian T-90 tank.

The War in Ukraine was largely unexpected from both allies of Ukraine as well as many Russian commanders themselves as little to no new weaponry was produced in large quantities prior to the beginning of the conflict. Leadership in Russia likely assumed that the assault on Kyiv would be swift and that trench style warfare would not take place in an era with rapid, modern tanks and armoured vehicles linked to GPS. The end result was trenches and drones and long range artillery with accuracy only dreamed of in the 1980s. While most of the Soviet stockpile was made to fight a Third World War in the late 70s and early 80s, it is now almost depleted in the mid-2020s.

Russia had large stockpiles of Soviet equipment in garages and sitting in fields all over Russia by the mid-2020s. Newer modern systems are often based on the late Cold War platforms with computer assisted communications and targeting equipment, designed to be an export product to nations who were looking for an economical, world class platform. When Russia lost many of these more advanced systems, they started taking equipment from their active reserves, then from working tanks from their stockpile, then upgrading the Soviet tanks to a modern standard, and now taking even 1960s era systems with an odd 115mm calibre to use as fire support for infantry. Russia has gone as far as purchasing weapons and ammunition from North Korea, much of it being of an older Soviet design and with additional problems due to quality controls. The race for modern tanks however may not be solved through these purchases, and both the Western allies and Russia may both have the option to purchase the last remaining large stockpiles of tanks for their forces in Ukraine.

Russia had a modernisation program based on the T14 Armata tank’s hull and chassis to re-equip their armed forces. The Armata platform would be utilized with new tanks and vehicles with the best technology and protection available in the post 2010s era. With the cost of the Armata being quite high however, and the requirements for the current war being one of needing more units as opposed to a few highly advanced units, it looks like the modernisation program will be focused on older models as opposed to a newly produced Armata based production. While the production for the T-80 series appears to no longer have the rationale past upgrades to make new tanks, the factory that produced the original T-72 has been working 24 hours shifts modernizing older tanks from storage to the T-72B3M standard and would likely focus on making the newer T-90M tanks if a new production run would take shape. Even with this large production push, Russia is still losing too many tanks, and both Russia and Ukraine will need to find a source of tanks that are significantly better than old T-62Ms and Leopard 1s.

The largest stockpiles of modern weapons that might be available for purchase lay in China and India. If China would decide to disengage from accelerating a conflict with Taiwan and continue as the world’s manufacturing hub, PLA land forces would be in excess of equipment and armour. China had to design the ZTQ15 light tank as it could operate effectively for use on the border with India, where many of their ZTZ99A and ZTZ96B tanks would struggle in a low oxygen/high terrain environment. After China’s 2008 Parade showing many new weapons systems to the public, many of these systems ended up being retired or put in rear units of the PLA after a few short years, despite being of a modern 2008 design. Tanks such as the ZTZ96B has similar characteristics to the newer T-72 versions and would suit both Russian and Ukrainian forces well in their conflict. Anti-aircraft systems like China’s PGZ-04A/PGZ95 is already largely being replaced by the PGZ09, and is like a modernised ZSU-23-4 Shilka, and would suit the anti-drone defence for Ukraine better than most of the early 80s Gepards currently being used. While it might be considered as a long shot to purchase armament from China for Ukraine, there have been many licensing agreements and commercial connections between Ukraine’s allies, particularly France and Germany, and it cannot be assumed that China would forgo a benefit to themselves for the sake of Russia in every instance. With China’s equipment being standard with many Soviet era artillery rounds, both Ukraine and Russia could integrate those systems with ease on the battlefield.

India’s currently has the license to produce the Russian designed T-90 tank and has production facilities making them in India for India’s armed forces. While it is unclear whether or not Russia has the ability to block exports of the Indian produced T-90 in their licensing agreement, India’s security situation requires an independent source for arms in the event its population is threatened. Due to India’s significance in its region and globally, they have been able to maintain relations with both sides of the conflict without enduring much pressure from either party. Besides equipment from France, India’s military has always sourced much of its equipment from non-NATO nations despite being the world’s largest democracy and having close ties to the West and its values. India has recently backed away from purchasing some modern Russian equipment after seeing the performance of the T-72/T-90 platform in Ukraine. India may be willing to sell part of its T-90 production if it can be compensated with other platforms as countries like Poland had chosen to do in displacing its T-72 based PT-91 Twardy tanks. While relational issues India might have with the West or Russia in selling T-90s to either side would be a topic of debate, any increased immediate threat to India, the region, or the larger world from India’s adversaries will push India to rapidly and unapologetically support its own best interests. India has already taken to supplying some weapons support to Armenia, even when Armenia has been abandoned by both traditional ally Russia, and the United States as the new player in the Caucasus region.

It may be the case that the usefulness of the traditional tank, with a large 125mm cannon and heavy ammunition, may not be the best system to use on the battlefield with so many threats from below the ground to nearly invisible drones above. Many weapons systems like the M2 Bradley use an autocannon to achieve its mission success and rely on speed, rapid fire and crew visibility in assaulting enemy positions and even challenging tanks themselves. The offensive use of Anti-Tank guided missiles can destroy most modern tanks and active and passive protection systems can be effective on systems using thinner armour. The Russian system called BMPT Terminator uses two BMP-2 style autocannons and four anti-tank missiles based on a T-72 hull designed as a response to tanks losses experienced in urban settings in Chechnya. This system uses modern vision and targeting equipment, and was initially one of the most feared systems to be encountered in Ukraine. These lighter systems may take over the role of the main battle tanks in future conflicts. The idea of having unmanned armoured vehicles may already be fielded in Ukraine. The Russian Uran-9 is essentially a drone armoured vehicle with an autocannon and anti-tank missiles akin to something you might see in an 1980s sci-fi movie, minus the growling and creepy voice. While many of these manned and unmanned tanks will be integrated with their own aerial drone support mechanisms, the war in Ukraine has established certain technologies over others, and will continue to do so as long as fighting continues in the region. We are at the cusp of the final stockpiles from the end of the Cold War, with no signs of less conflict in the world in 2024.

/ France, Transports, Ville, Service public, Région - Espace et territoire / France, Transports, Ville, Service public, Région - Espace et territoire

Helping it recover is the only way to save the two-state solution.

America must rediscover the ideological flexibility that helped it win the Cold War.

La rénovation de la gare Saint-Lazare, achevée en 2012, a transformé un peu plus cette cathédrale du voyage en temple du commerce. En s'associant à la SNCF, le groupe d'immobilier commercial Klepierre a envahi un espace public fréquenté par plus de 137 millions de personnes en 2022. Nouveaux étages, (...) / France, Transports, Infrastructures, Service public, Ville - Espace et territoire

Une jeune femme des temps anciens pour laquelle les hommes se battent, et qui va se venger de leur violence. Une jeune femme d'aujourd'hui qui n'est plus obligée de travailler pour gagner sa vie et qui découvre l'ennui. Deux déploiements romanesques du fantastique lié au féminin, écrits à un siècle (...) / Fiction, Littérature, Japon, Femmes - 2024/07

Americans will now know what a lack of accountability means.

Masoud Pezeshkian will not cross the supreme leader.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated recently at the sidelines of the NATO Summit: “Over the last year, year and a half, Armenia and Azerbaijan have done very important work toward negotiating and concluding a peace agreement—one that is durable, one that is dignified and one that would open extraordinary possibilities for both countries, the region that they share and for their relationship with the United States.”

He added: “Today is an opportunity to take stock in the progress that has been made, what remains.  But based on the engagements that we have had, including in recent weeks, I believe both countries are very close to being able to reach a final agreement, one that the United States will strongly support.”

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and his Armenian counterpart met in Washington, DC with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the sidelines of the NATO Summit.   The ministers agreed to continue to work diligently to finalizing the peace agreement, which will bring to an end the conflict between both countries.   Both sides expressed their gratitude to Secretary Blinken for his role in facilitating dialogue between both countries.

Spokesman for the US State Department Matthew Miller also expressed his satisfaction with the meeting and stressed: “The Secretary also emphasized the importance of peace in promoting regional connectivity, which would benefit the entire South Caucuses region.”    Bayramov also “reiterated Azerbaijan’s commitment to the peace process” in an X post following the meeting.

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev said that within a few months Azerbaijan and Armenia can lay the basic principles for a peace treaty, but a peace agreement can only be signed when Armenia changes its constitution “because it contains territorial claims against Azerbaijan.”   The Azerbaijani President believes that it is of pivotal importance to ending the conflict permanently that Armenia renounces all of its claims over Azerbaijani territory, implying that if the constitution is not changed, Armenia can always renege the peace agreement and wage conflict against Azerbaijan at a future date.  

Last February, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan did call for a new constitution.  However, his people have not taken kindly to the request they change their constitution, which presently affirms: “the December 1, 1989 declaration by the Supreme Council of the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic that calls for unification of the Armenian SSR and Nagorno-Karabakh.”  

For this reason, Farid Shafiyev, Chair of the Baku-based Centre of Analysis of International Relations (AIR), has suggested that a commitment to amend the constitution within a year of signing, if included in an agreement, could also be acceptable but that timeframe could be too short.

He noted that Pashinyan still needs to engage the public further in informed discussion regarding the necessity and benefits of peace for that to happen.  Nevertheless, it should be noted that last May Armenia returned four villages to Azerbaijan that it occupied during the First Karabakh War, so perhaps one day it will happen that Armenia will change their constitution as well.  When there is a will, there is always a way forward.   

« Les ouvrages consacrés à l'extraordinaire expérience religieuse et sociale réalisée par les pères de la Compagnie de Jésus au Paraguay pendant plus d'un siècle et demi sont extrêmement nombreux », note Jean-Paul Duviols. En fallait-il vraiment un de plus ? Oui : car ce livre-ci est érudit et (...) / Histoire, Amérindiens, Religion - 2024/07

N'y a-t-il pas quelque chose d'hypocrite à notre surprise ? Une crise institutionnelle, le Rassemblement national premier parti de France, un « grand jeu » politique : la conjoncture des dernières semaines s'inscrit dans une histoire d'au moins quarante ans. / France, Politique, Élections, Extrême (...) / France, Politique, Élections, Extrême droite - 2024/07

« Les hommes politiques, les journalistes et les politologues parlent un langage qui n'est pas très éloigné du mien quand il ne le recouvre pas, voire le dépasse. Je me suis normalisé puisque tout le monde parle comme moi. » Jean-Marie Le Pen, France Inter, 16 avril 2002 « Loin de rompre avec l'Union (...) / Extrême droite, France, Politique - 2024/07

Comme d'autres travailleurs, les journalistes subissent l'externalisation de leurs tâches et le nivellement vers le bas de leurs conditions de travail. À force d'encourager la production d'articles standardisés, attendus, recopiés sur des dépêches d'agences, les entreprises de presse ont facilité le (...) / Capitalisme, Information, Médias, Informatique - 2024/07

Rapporter les images au plus près de l'action, le point de vue des manifestants plutôt que celui de la police : les reporters de rue ou « street reporters » contribuent depuis quinze ans à changer le regard sur les mouvements sociaux. Comment, et au prix de quelles contradictions, ces journalistes (...) / Médias, Mouvement de contestation, Presse, Répression, Audiovisuel - 2024/07