Diplomacy & Crisis News

En juin 1914, plus de soixante trains se dirigent vers Zacatecas, au Mexique. À l'intérieur voyagent des soldats, des canons, des chevaux. Pancho Villa suit, à cheval. C'est la division du Nord qui avance, l'armée révolutionnaire de Chihuahua, pour attaquer cette ville enserrée dans une vallée, à 2 (...) / Mexique, Histoire, Bande dessinée - 2016/07

Welcome to my blog.

My name is Gergely Varga, I’m an international relations and security policy expert, with a PhD from Budapest Corvinus University. Currently I’m working as a non-resident fellow of the Center for Strategic and Defense Studies (CSDS) at the National University of Public Service.

I launched this blog to share my take on international security issues effecting Europe and the wider transatlantic region. As for what to expect balanced approach in understanding competing perspectives, favoring realism in an age of ideologues and extremists, a cherish for traditional values and support transatlantic cooperation in a rapidly transforming world.

I bring extensive research experience from the area of international security studies to this blog: I joined CSDS in 2008 after finishing my law and history studies at ELTE University. In 2012 I was a visiting fellow in Washington D.C. at the Center for Transatlantic Relations Johns Hopkins University. I have written numerous publications, most of the focusing on my primary research areas, US foreign and security policy, NATO, transatlantic relations and European security challenges.

Üdvözlöm a blogomon.

Dr. Varga Gergely vagyok, biztonságpolitikai szakértő. Jelenleg a Nemzeti Közszolgálati Egyetem Stratégiai Védelmi Kutató Intézetének külső munkatársa vagyok, doktori címemet a Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem nemzetközi kapcsolatok szakán szereztem meg.

A blogon Európát és a tágabb transzatlanti térséget érintő nemzetközi biztonsági kérdések kerülnek előtérbe. A blog szellemisége a felmerülő versengő perspektívák megértése tekintetében kiegyensúlyozottságot, az ideológikus és szélsőséges megközelítésekkel szemben a realizmus előtérbe helyezését, a hagyomásos értékek iránti elkötelezettséget és a transzatlanti együttműködés támogatását fogja tükrözni.

Az itt megjejelő cikkek írásakor széleskörű kutatási tapasztalatokra hagyatkozom: 2008-ban kerültem a Stratégiai Védelmi Kutatóközpontba miután befejeztem jogi és történészi tanulmányaimat az ELTE-n. 2012-ben 10 hónapig a washingtoni Johns Hopkins Egyetem Transzatlanti Kapcsolatok Központja vendégkutatója voltam. Számos publikációm jelent meg a fő kutatási területemet, amerikai kül és biztonságpolitikát, transzatalnti kapcsolatokat, NATO-t és az Európai biztonsági kihívásokat érintő kérdésekről.

Language Undefined Tag: StrategoNATOUSA

The honeymoon period is now over for the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan, which formally ended the civil war in August 2015. Its guarantors need to act urgently in the next days to save it and prevent the country from returning to full-scale combat.

(Own report) - Just a few days before the NATO summit opens in Poland's capital Warsaw, German think tanks are not only pushing for stationing combat troops at Russia's borders but even for the expansion of the West's nuclear arsenal. A "revision" of NATO's "nuclear strategy" is "urgently needed," because, vis à vis Moscow, for a "credible deterrence" a "nuclear component" is necessary, explained the CDU-affiliated Konrad Adenauer Foundation. The German government's main military policy think tank, the Federal College for Security Studies (BAKS) is also calling for the transatlantic alliance to reach a "new strategic nuclear consensus," to contain Russia, the "anti-western power." The implementation of the missile defense system in NATO's eastern European member countries is also explained with Moscow's alleged "aggressivity" and the derived need for "deterrence." The western military alliance demonstrates its "political capability to take action" against Russia, by its "close involvement" of the formally neutral countries Sweden and Finland "in NATO processes," according to the author. Besides, both think tanks admit their commitment to militaristic "global crisis management." According to the Adenauer Foundation, NATO must be able to address and "neutralize threats wherever they arise." The think tank explicitly considers the "flow of migrants" in this category.

L'ex-plus haute fonctionnaire européenne chargée de réguler l'activité d'Uber travaille désormais comme lobbyiste pour Uber. L'art du pantouflage — vendre au privé une influence acquise dans le public — atteint ici son apothéose. / Droit, Économie, Entreprise, Personnalités, Technologie, Transports, (...) / Droit, Économie, Entreprise, Personnalités, Technologie, Transports, Groupe de pression - 2016/07

La victoire du Brexit constitue bien un coup de tonnerre pour l'ensemble du Vieux Continent. Car, cette fois, il sera difficile d'ignorer le suffrage universel en s'appuyant sur une classe politique désavouée par le résultat du référendum du 23 juin afin de rafistoler un arrangement rejeté par le (...) / Europe, Royaume-Uni, Démocratie, Mutation, Politique, Protectionnisme - 2016/07

Westerners said the web could never be controlled. Lu Wei, China's departing internet czar, proved them all wrong.

The country's top court declined to revisit a law that targets gay sex — the latest setback for the subcontinent’s LGBT community and its struggle for equality.

The Islamic State seized a trove of weapons from U.S.-backed rebels, including U.S. ammunition, mortars, and a pickup truck.

Young Syrians living in Lebanon are attempting suicide in ever greater numbers.

How Democrats changed their decades-old approach to the Israel-Palestine conflict — and why the fight isn’t over yet.

More than two months after a convoy of vehicles carrying Samantha Power hit and killed a Cameroonian child, the family is being paid by Washington.

A Chinese tour guide is leading a group of tourists in the central city of Da Nang. (VnExpress)

Ahead of an expected unfavorable ruling for China over its maritime territorial claims in the South China Sea, in an international court case filed by Manila at the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague, Beijing has been rallying both international and domestic support to their cause.  

Internationally, Beijing’s Foreign Ministry claimed the support of more than 40 nations last month in its boycott of the ruling, while Chinese state media declared almost 60 this past week.  Only 8 of these countries have expressed public support and 5 on the list of supporters have even denied backing the boycott.

On the domestic front, state-owned China Central Television (CCTV) ran a video on June 21 to highlight Beijing’s argument, hoping to propel domestic support. The video, sanctioned by the Chinese Central Propaganda Department, was shared by CCTV on Weibo, China’s widely popular microblogging site.

And in a more concealed ploy, a “friend of the court” brief was submitted by a legal organization called the “Asia-Pacific Institute of International Law” (APIIL) in Hong Kong.  APIIL was only registered in Hong Kong a mere two months ago, has no website or public contact information, and is run by its chairman, Daniel Fung.  Fung is a delegate to the Communist Party-led Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) in Beijing.  Aligned with Beijing’s official position, the brief calls into question the PCA’s jurisdiction in the ruling over the disputed maritime territories, citing “factual and legal errors” in the case.

But the propaganda wars do not end there, as domestic Chinese tourists are now being indoctrinated to the South China Sea disputes. More than 10,000 tourists have taken a cruise ship to the Paracel island chain, which are in dispute with Vietnam. And this week, government authorities in the Vietnamese city of Da Nang are accusing some 60 Chinese tour guides of operating illegally in this popular tourist city and providing incorrect information about Vietnam’s history to tourists.  Many of the Chinese tour guides are employed by Chinese tour guides who hire a Vietnamese director to act as a front.  

Local Vietnamese guides, who find themselves competing for the tourists, have submitted photos and videos as proof to the Da Nang Tourism Department.  One Vietnamese tour guide has accused the illegal Chinese tour guides of even referring to the shores off Da Nang’s beach as part of China’s territory.

Beijing’s efforts to rally support ahead of the ruling in The Hague will not do much to change the eventual outcome, and could backfire internationally as well as domestically.  Internationally, the efforts are perceived as a failure – attempting to usurp international rule of law by uniting politically weak and economically challenged nations to its cause, with other nations calling out China for never having pledged support.

For its domestic audience, the stakes are higher.  Rallying patriotic support ahead of an expected unfavorable —and could easily backfire should Beijing lose and fail to respond in an adequate “face saving” fashion.   

The post China Extends Propaganda Efforts Ahead of South China Sea Ruling appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

al-Sisi and Netanyahu (Photo: Motti Kimchi, Reuters)

Russia’s new status as a pivotal nation in the Middle East’s security environment, accompanied with the American withdrawal and the  rise of ISIS, is pushing Israel and Egypt to rekindle their relations. As Jerusalem wants to retain its status of an oasis of stability amidst surrounding volatility and Cairo is struggling to re-establish itself after the post-Arab Spring fiasco, Russia’s involvement in the region serves as an additional stimulus for these strange bedfellows.

The Kremlin’s military campaign in Syria has successfully preserved Bashar al-Assad’s regime and saved Syria from slipping into the Libyan chaotic scenario. Moreover it is evident that Russia’s military bases will further augment country’s influence in the Mediterranean Sea and entire Middle East, allowing Moscow to actively participate in the regional security setting. Interestingly, unlike during the Cold War, Moscow is now seeking to build strong relations with all major players of the region including Israel.

Putin shares warm relations with both the Israeli Prime Minister and the Egyptian President. In effect, Netanyahu has visited Moscow three times more than the White House for the past year, and al-Sisi’s regime is looking forward to have Russia’s state nuclear giant Rosatom construct the country’s first nuclear power plant in El-Dabaa. In addition to their friendly relations with the Kremlin, Israeli and Egyptian leaders also share great relations with each other.

Israel has earlier returned to Egypt two sarcophagus as a sign of good relations between the two nations. Israeli Foreign Ministry Director-General Dore Gold told Reuters: “The return of the Egyptian (artefacts) is symbolic, more than anything, of the changing relations (between) Israel and Egypt.” Moreover, despite a direct violation of the peace treaty of 1979 terms, Israel did not object transfer of the Islands of Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi on April 9.

As Israel remains the most stable nation within the region and the Egyptian economy heavily relies on Saudi help, both countries are interested in benefiting economically from enhanced cooperation. In particular, both Cairo and Jerusalem cooperated in removing obstacles to a multibillion-dollar natural gas deal, as Israel was close to settling a $1.73 billion fine that Egypt was ordered to pay, a move that could further encourage discussion of exporting Israeli offshore gas.

Cooperation between Israel and Egypt is also augmenting due to coinciding interests in terms of regional security and balance of power. Israel and Egypt were alarmed by the spread of transnational jihadi groups such as ISIS and initiated one of the strongest network of intelligence gathering, which was highlighted by the IDF’s deputy chief of staff. Security in the Sinai peninsula has also become a vital issue for both nations.

Egypt could also help to resolve Israeli-Palestinian issue and Gaza’s blockade. Israel and Egypt are discussing possible territorials transfers that would allow Egypt to establish a corridor to Gaza. Furthermore, Sisi is reportedly trying to bring Israeli and Palestinian leaders to Cairo for an Egypt-led peace summit.

In effect, by helping Israel to resolve its conflict with the Palestinians, Egypt is also hoping to receive support back. Al-Araby Al-Jadeed newspaper has recently reported Sisi’s request for Netanyahu’s help in resolving its dispute with Ethiopia over the Renaissance Dam. The issue reportedly took place ‘due to Ethiopia’s intransigence and refusal to respond to the Egyptian calls to coordinate efforts during the construction and storage stages.’

Cairo might also hold old Ottoman grudges against Turkey’s ambitions for the region and Sisi would not want to cooperate with Turkey since it supported the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood. Thus, Cairo would rather seek cooperation with Israel within the current regional setting and try to alienate Ankara for as long as possible. Therefore, considering the current rapprochement between Israel and Turkey, Netanyahu will have to be more cautious while seeking to retain same level of relationships with Egypt.

The post Russia is Pushing Israel and Egypt Closer to Each Other appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

The Senate gives Puerto Rico a reprieve two days before a debt deadline.

Ce n'est pas vraiment une saga ni un polar, encore moins un essai, même s'il est instructif, mais bien un roman, un ouvrage-fleuve divisé en cinq livres, d'une construction aussi originale qu'époustouflante, leçon de géopolitique, travail d'historien allergique au sens chronologique. Pour son (...) / Caraïbes, États-Unis, États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Haïti, Culture, Femmes, Littérature, Spiritualité, Violence, Fiction - 2016/07

Occuper. Occuper, habiter les marges du rêve américain. Ou les pointillés de la colère. Afin de mieux les subvertir. Rose Zimmer est une obscure Juive new-yorkaise communiste, épouse d'Albert, « un héritier juif persuadé d'être allemand alors même que les nazis défilaient sous ses fenêtres », tout juste (...) / États-Unis, Communisme, Culture, Femmes, Histoire, Judaïsme, Littérature, Mouvement de contestation, Fiction - 2016/07

Every service occasionally goes through a slump.

General George Crook distrusted the whites on the frontier, and believed they had a vested interest in riling up the Indians so the Army would stick around.

I couldn't see the big picture from a lance corporal's perspective on the ground.