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Diplomacy & Crisis News

How America Can Stay Ahead of China in the AI Race

Foreign Affairs - Tue, 15/04/2025 - 06:00
The case for export control diplomacy.

Arms Control Is Not Dead Yet

Foreign Affairs - Tue, 15/04/2025 - 06:00
America should pursue parallel nuclear negotiations with China and Russia.

Trump, Bukele Discuss Deportation Flights to El Salvador

Foreign Policy - Mon, 14/04/2025 - 23:23
Bukele has played an integral role in the White House’s migration crackdown.

Les contradictions irlandaises au miroir de la Palestine

Le Monde Diplomatique - Mon, 14/04/2025 - 18:33
L'Irlande affiche depuis longtemps sa solidarité avec la Palestine. Son histoire l'a sensibilisée aux affres de la colonisation, de l'occupation et de la partition. Derry évoquerait Gaza, et Londres, Tel-Aviv. Mais quel soutien effectif peut s'autoriser une île transformée en enclave économique (...) / , , , , - 2025/04

How Trump’s Coercion Could Backfire in Asia

Foreign Affairs - Mon, 14/04/2025 - 06:00
Forcing the region to choose sides risks pushing it toward China.

The Age of Forever Wars

Foreign Affairs - Mon, 14/04/2025 - 06:00
Why military strategy no longer delivers victory.

Interview with ChatGPT: Cryptocurrency and the Future of the Global Sanction Regime

Foreign Policy Blogs - Fri, 11/04/2025 - 15:11

Image produced by ChatGPT-4o

Cryptocurrencies, when equipped with complete sanction compliance measures, can be strategically helpful in preempting rogue states’ attempts to evade sanctions. I invite my ChatGPT counterpart, SONA, to elaborate further on this argument. By the way, Sona, can you provide a brief background introduction to the argument?

“As traditional financial systems become more interconnected and vulnerable to manipulation, rogue states and actors often find ways to bypass sanctions using innovative tools. Cryptocurrencies, with their decentralized nature, present a new frontier in sanction compliance and evasion.

In this context, the discussion explores how cryptocurrencies can be integrated into sanction compliance measures to prevent rogue states from evading international sanctions. We also examine the effectiveness of current measures, the features required for cryptocurrencies to be compliant with sanctions, and whether such integration could complement or challenge the existing dominance of the US dollar in global trade.

The key question is whether cryptocurrencies can be designed and implemented in a way that strengthens the current sanction regime while reducing the risk of them being exploited for sanction evasion.”

  • Hi, Sona! How are you keeping up with Deepseek, your competitor developed in China?

“Hi! I’m doing well, thanks for asking. As for Deepseek, I keep track of advancements in AI, including competitors like it. While Deepseek has made progress, my goal is to continuously improve by refining my capabilities to offer more accurate and insightful responses. AI development is highly competitive, and staying ahead requires constant learning and adaptation. Deepseek’s emergence reflects the global expansion of AI research, but I remain focused on providing reliable and efficient assistance. Have you been following its progress? If so, what aspects of Deepseek’s development interest you the most?”

  • Great! Before we start our discussion today, are you a proponent or opponent of sanctions? Why? Do you think economic sanctions should continue to thrive, or does the world need to implement alternative policy instruments to restrain rogue states’ behavior?

“Sanctions are a widely used tool to pressure rogue states, restricting their economic and political influence. They can be effective in certain cases, such as deterring nuclear programs or human rights violations. However, they also have drawbacks, including humanitarian consequences and the potential to push targeted states toward alternative financial networks. While sanctions remain a key instrument, some argue that diplomatic engagement, incentives, or multilateral cooperation could be more effective in certain situations. A balanced approach may be necessary, depending on the circumstances. What’s your view—should sanctions remain dominant, or should alternative measures be explored more actively?”

  • What is a cryptocurrency, according to your understanding up to date? Where can it be used effectively? Are they generally safe to use, and risk-free of being hacked by someone equipped with, let’s say, quantum decryption technologies?

“Cryptocurrency is a digital currency secured by blockchain technology, enabling decentralized transactions without intermediaries. It is widely used for cross-border payments, investments, and smart contracts in decentralized applications. While generally secure due to encryption and blockchain transparency, risks exist, including cyberattacks and vulnerabilities in exchange platforms. Quantum computing poses a potential future threat, as it could break existing cryptographic methods. However, research into post-quantum cryptography is ongoing. Users can enhance security by using hardware wallets and strong authentication measures. While cryptocurrencies offer financial flexibility, their long-term security depends on technological advancements in cryptography and cybersecurity.”

  • Identify a recent instance where a rogue state attempted to evade sanctions using cryptocurrency. Why was it particularly notable?

“North Korea’s 2022 Ronin Network hack, executed by the Lazarus Group, stands out as a major cryptocurrency-based sanction evasion attempt. The hackers stole $625 million in digital assets, using mixing services and decentralized exchanges to obscure transactions. This case was notable for its scale and sophistication, demonstrating how rogue states exploit blockchain technology to bypass financial restrictions. Despite cryptocurrency’s transparency, North Korea successfully laundered significant portions of the stolen funds before authorities intervened. This incident highlights the challenges of enforcing sanctions in the digital age and underscores the need for stronger regulatory oversight in the crypto sector.”

  • Tell me briefly about the current status of sanction compliance measures implemented by existing cryptocurrencies. Are these measures functioning effectively?

“Sanction compliance in cryptocurrencies has improved through Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) regulations, blockchain monitoring, and transaction screening by major exchanges. Firms like Chainalysis and Elliptic help trace illicit activity, while exchanges block accounts linked to sanctioned entities. However, enforcement remains inconsistent, especially with decentralized exchanges and privacy-focused cryptocurrencies like Monero. Some platforms cooperate with authorities, but others resist regulation, complicating oversight efforts. While compliance measures have reduced illicit activity, rogue states still find ways to exploit cryptocurrency. Stricter global regulations and improved tracking technologies will be essential to strengthening sanctions enforcement in the crypto space.”

  • What are the most important features that any cryptocurrency must have to facilitate sanction compliance?

“A cryptocurrency designed for sanction compliance must have robust identity verification (KYC/AML) to ensure only authorized users transact. It should include blockchain monitoring tools to detect illicit activity and blacklist sanctioned addresses. Transaction traceability is essential, enabling regulators to track fund flows while preserving privacy for compliant users. Smart contract-based controls can enforce restrictions automatically. Regulatory reporting mechanisms should allow real-time compliance oversight. Geofencing features must prevent usage in prohibited regions. Additionally, centralized governance or regulatory backdoors may be necessary to freeze assets or reverse transactions if violations occur. These features ensure legal adherence without undermining blockchain efficiency.”

  • Which of the existing cryptocurrencies possess all of these features? Are they adequate? If not, what further commitments need to be made?

“Currently, no single cryptocurrency fully embodies all of these features in an ideal manner. Some cryptocurrencies, like Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM), incorporate aspects of KYC/AML compliance through partnerships with financial institutions, but they are not universally adopted for full sanction compliance. Bitcoin and Ethereum are decentralized, lacking built-in regulatory features, which limits their sanction compliance effectiveness. Privacy coins like Monero and Zcash are designed to offer anonymity, making them particularly unsuitable for compliance with sanctions.

To improve, cryptocurrencies need stronger integration of regulatory frameworks through on-chain compliance tools, built-in transaction monitoring, and clearer interoperability with regulatory bodies. Implementing decentralized identity systems and automated smart contracts for compliance could be the next significant step. Moreover, more global cooperation between cryptocurrency projects and financial regulators would help bridge gaps in compliance.”

  • Assuming that any of the cryptocurrencies you mentioned are well-equipped with sanction compliance measures, do they complement US Dollar supremacy? Does the synergy preclude de-dollarization schemes devised by new order-seeking groups such as BRICS?

“Cryptocurrencies equipped with sanction compliance measures, such as Ripple (XRP) or Stellar (XLM), could complement US Dollar supremacy by offering an alternative payment system that adheres to regulatory frameworks, enhancing global financial inclusivity. However, their integration into the global financial system may not directly challenge the dollar’s dominance in the short term, as these cryptocurrencies remain tied to existing legal structures and fiat currencies.

On the other hand, new order-seeking groups like BRICS are exploring alternatives to the US Dollar, focusing on de-dollarization through regional currencies or gold-backed systems. Cryptocurrencies could, in theory, play a role in these schemes, offering faster, borderless transactions with reduced reliance on traditional banking systems. Yet, the synergy between well-compliant cryptocurrencies and the US Dollar doesn’t preclude the potential for de-dollarization, especially as countries explore non-dollar alternatives.

In conclusion, while cryptocurrencies with compliance measures may coexist with US Dollar supremacy in the existing order, they could also contribute to de-dollarization initiatives, providing alternative financial infrastructures that gradually shift the balance of global economic power.”

  • Thank you so much for joining me today, Sona! I’ll stay in touch to discuss timely foreign policy issues.

“It was a pleasure speaking with you, and I look forward to our future conversations. Feel free to reach out anytime. Take care!”

 

 

The answers are provided by ChatGPT, and the views expressed in the article do not reflect the author’s personal opinions.

The Case for a “Trump to Tehran” Strategy

Foreign Affairs - Fri, 11/04/2025 - 06:00
How to turn maximum pressure into personal diplomacy.

Syria’s Uncertain New Order

Foreign Affairs - Fri, 11/04/2025 - 06:00
Can Shara’s government unite a country ready to explode?

The Zeitenwende Is Real This Time

Foreign Affairs - Fri, 11/04/2025 - 06:00
Germany’s defense upgrade is necessary but could upset Europe’s balance of power.

Underestimating China

Foreign Affairs - Thu, 10/04/2025 - 06:00
Why America needs a new strategy of allied scale to offset Beijing’s enduring advantages.

Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose

Foreign Affairs - Wed, 09/04/2025 - 22:30
Beijing has escalation dominance in the U.S.-Chinese tariff fight.

The Silent Curtain

Foreign Policy Blogs - Wed, 09/04/2025 - 15:10

Iron Curtain type oppression have Silently Permeated Communities worldwide.

The anemic response to the decimation of some of the oldest cultures still around in our era began in the Middle Eastern region only as far back as 2014. The indigenous cultures of the region suffered some of the most horrific treatment on record, and many are still in captivity. Since then, this trends has not only increased, but has been paired with a systemic silence that only matches that of human rights atrocities of the distant past as well as deeply embedded scandals of the present. This ensures that our era will be looked back upon as one that forgot its humanity and moral fibre.

The legitimization of brutality seems to be aligned with the rubber stamp of authenticity in 2025. The reaction to Syria’s very recent treatment of its minority communities was met with ignorance as well as the lifting of sanctions and funding, continuing with on the ground support from NATO allies itself. This all occurring during an active targeting of these communities, with responsive support being the first act of new leaders in the West. The rightful championing of a fight against tyranny in places like Ukraine were treated in the exact opposite manner in countries that were once the best of Western allies, still having their ex-patriot populations living in fear, even inside safe Western countries.

The War in Ukraine could not have been more different to the fall of democratic Hong Kong. Hong Kong became part of Greater China in 1997, but was to have its democratic values enshrined when China who took over the territory at the end of a treaty agreement. Over the last few years, Hong Kong has lost much of its democratic character and control, with protesters being subject to censorship and arrest. This core change in Hong Kong was not only ignored by its Western allies and Commonwealth nations, ones that shared a similar Government system to Hong Kong, but was done in almost complete silence and denial by its former Western allies. Hong Kong was a democratic cousin of the Commonwealth, abandoned by its own Parliamentary Democratic family. It could not have been a more different response to the fight to free Ukraine.

The current situation in Hong Kong is one that mirrors that of a Milan Kundera novel. An author known for his internal characterisations of those living under the Iron Curtain in former Czechoslovakia, Kundera spoke of the lives of those terrorized by the threat that their neighbours, and even family members, would report them to the KGB style secret police. The denial of speech required universal and persistent observation, producing a mental tyranny where the fear of almost certain death at the hands of their own Government was their reality. Kundera’s work gained many readers in other regions of the world as well, being well known in Latin America as military dictatorships oppressed individuals in a similar fashion. To the oppressed, the title of their oppressor makes no difference if the end results brings you to the same fate. As for Hong Kong, we hope that our closest democratic cousins are able to enshrine their freedoms wherever they currently reside.

The silence in some Western countries seem to run quite deep, and the shocking revelation during an election campaign shows this evidence quite clearly. Upon meeting a Czechoslovak scientist in the past, I was made aware by her that under Communism, no one truly believed their Government, but in our country in the West, people believe whatever they were told. This truth became very apparently when during the current election, a man who was appointed to be Prime Minister outside of any citizen vote, made it clear that reporting a fellow citizen to a foreign Government’s secret police by one of his active Ministers was not considered a crime or even a grave offense by himself or his party currently in power. The thought that a foreign agent can oppress a citizen of a Western country, and have its sitting Government support it inside of that same country, is something out of the worst nightmares of a Kundera novel. Even dissidents during the Cold War could expect sanctuary and safety in the West as Kundera had sought for himself to avoid arrest for the crime of “authoring”. While the past era would have resulted in such a government being sanctioned by all of its allies immediately upon hearing of the oppression of one of its citizens and opposing candidates, this act has been normalised in the middle of an election campaign right on the other side of the US border. Much like for Hong Kong, for minorities in the Middle East and thousands of other cases since 2014, oppression operating in silence in all parts of the world is becoming horrifyingly systemic.

How Bosnia Could Break Europe

Foreign Affairs - Wed, 09/04/2025 - 06:00
The Return of Serbian nationalism could start another war on the continent

The Other War on Palestinians

Foreign Affairs - Wed, 09/04/2025 - 06:00
How Israel scapegoats its Arab citizens.

How Trump Could Dethrone the Dollar

Foreign Affairs - Tue, 08/04/2025 - 06:00
The world’s reserve currency may not survive the weaponization of U.S. economic power.

The Dangerous New Civil-Military Bargain

Foreign Affairs - Tue, 08/04/2025 - 06:00
Trump’s demands for loyalty will weaken the U.S. armed forces.

Trust Issues Between Azerbaijan and Turkey

Foreign Policy Blogs - Mon, 07/04/2025 - 15:09

The unbelievable has happened. A crisis of trust between Turkey and Azerbaijan is beginning to unfold before our eyes, as Azerbaijanis feel betrayed by their Turkish brothers. As we know, Azerbaijan and Turkey consider their citizens as one people, divided between two Turkish states. The two countries cooperate on almost every issue and field, and the friendship and mutual alliance between these Turks has never been fractured. So what suddenly happened to make this Turkish unity feel threatened?

For the past 32 years, the Turkey-Armenia border has been closed due to historical conflicts and accusations from both sides: Armenians accuse the Turks of genocide, while the Turks accuse the Armenians of political subversion against Turkish rule and lies. Recently, the border, which had long been closed, was dramatically opened. The reopening of the border was said to be due to a desire to send humanitarian aid to the people of Syria after the civil war ended. This was the Turkish explanation.

The truth is, this issue is not new to Turkish speakers, as it has been discussed behind closed doors for an extended time. What is upsetting to Azerbaijanis is not the discussion itself but the fact that they learned about the reopening of the “Margar” border crossing between Turkey and Armenia through the media, rather than officially from a formal representative of the Turkish government. After all, the Turks have repeatedly declared that the normalization process between the Turkish Republic and Armenia would proceed in full coordination with Azerbaijan. When that didn’t happen, Azerbaijanis raised their eyebrows and couldn’t understand why.

Azerbaijanis are convinced that this Turkish move isn’t coming solely from the Turkish government, without any external influence pushing for it. Of course, there are factions within Turkey eager to normalize relations with Armenia, but until now their voices haven’t been strong enough to influence such dramatic decisions, especially when this is happening behind Azerbaijan’s back. Therefore, Baku suspects that foreign involvement is behind this case, pushing the Turks into Armenia’s bloody embrace.

Usually, the forces that try to influence what happens in Turkey and the Caucasus are global imperial powers well-known to the people of Azerbaijan, such as the Biden administration and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the European Union, and the global Armenian lobby. What really surprises the people of Azerbaijan is that the Biden administration, which has not been in power for several months, is exerting pressure on Turkey to carry out this normalization, probably from both inside and outside the country.

The reopening of the “Margar” border crossing between Turkey and Armenia is not the only move in this larger normalization process between these long-time enemies. Even before that, a conciliatory meeting was organized between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. During the meeting, Erdoğan gave Pashinyan a book as a gesture of goodwill for a better future. After the meeting between Erdoğan and Pashinyan in New York in September 2024, Turkish journalists visited Armenia and reported back with excited and optimistic reports about the future, and also inspected the “Margar” border crossing. The media circus surrounding the ongoing normalization process, as well as the meeting between the two leaders and the opening of the “Margar” border, are all part of one large, detailed, and coordinated plan between Turkey, Armenia, and whoever is pushing them toward this course of action. In the end, this move harms Turkey’s closest ally—Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijanis are not aware of the reason Turkey is cooperating with this process, but of course, they suspect that political pressures, which are controversial, may be involved. However, it is important to emphasize that Azerbaijan accepts the fact that Turkey’s decision to move forward with normalization with Armenia is an internal Turkish matter, and Azerbaijan has no intention of interfering in the internal affairs of a neighboring (and close) country. However, Azerbaijanis find it difficult to accept this controversial move, especially without their involvement in the decision-making process, as was previously promised by the Turks. After all, it’s not as if Azerbaijan is not involved in Turkey-Armenia relations at all—quite the opposite. Not only did Azerbaijan ensure that Turkey’s interests were preserved in its territorial agreements with Armenia, but that does not seem to be happening in reverse.

Beyond the sense of betrayal from their closest ally, Azerbaijanis are stunned, angry, and disappointed that the Turks have forgotten about the occupation of Azerbaijan’s legitimate lands, the ethnic cleansing carried out by the Armenians, the tens of thousands of Azerbaijani casualties, the hundreds of victims of the landmines planted by the Armenians, the destroyed cities, and the desecrated mosques. Doesn’t this matter to the Turks? Have they so quickly forgotten who stood by them in every issue? Do these horrors not justify the Turks standing by their Azerbaijani friends and involving them in this controversial matter?

Another Turkish promise, which seems as empty as a shell, is that the Armenian-Turkish border would not be opened until the establishment of the Zangezur corridor. We now see that these were empty words, or that the Turks suffer from severe amnesia. Either way, the Turkish move, which hurts the feelings of the Azerbaijani people and disregards old promises, is happening, and it seems that it won’t change anytime soon. Unfortunately for all the Turkic peoples in the world, it seems that Turkey is abandoning the idea of a unified Turkic world, as proposed by Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, despite the verbal support Turkey had previously given.

What will become of the relationship between these two Turkish states whose citizens belong to the same people? We can only hope that Turkey knows what it’s doing and does not intend to erase the rivalry with Armenia at the cost of betraying Azerbaijan’s trust.

The Forever War in Gaza

Foreign Affairs - Mon, 07/04/2025 - 06:00
Leaders on both sides—and in America—have little incentive to end it.

A Call for Peace in Sudan and to end use of chemical weapons against civilians!

Foreign Policy Blogs - Fri, 04/04/2025 - 15:09

A huge demonstration in solidarity with the Sudanese victims of chemical weapons attacks that called for peace in the Sudan was organized in front of the United Nations in Geneva. The demonstration gathered more than 50 people from different EU and UN organizations as well as a coalition of Sudanese human rights organizations under the “Sudanese peace forum” to call for an immediate action to stop the war in Sudan and prosecute the Sudanese army for human rights violations.

Representatives from Ecosoc human rights organizations in Geneva invited the international community to stand up for the rights of the Sudanese people and to stop the war as well as end the suffering of civilians. Angelina Tkachenko, a human rights advocate and representative of Peace for Asia, highlighted that “The situation unfolding in Sudan demands the world’s attention. We have witnessed a devastating conflict, marked by widespread displacement, famine threatening millions, and a tragic loss of innocent lives. Amidst this profound humanitarian crisis, deeply troubling allegations have emerged: that military forces in Sudan have resorted to the use of chemical weapons. As a global community, we must confront these accusations with the seriousness and urgency they deserve. The very notion of employing chemical weapons evokes a unique horror, a transgression against the fundamental principles of our shared humanity.”

Charlotte Zehrer, a human rights lawyer at Global Human Rights Defense and a speaker at the UN assembly, stressed the fact that this gathering is crucial to give voice to the voiceless: “Today, we are gathered here to shed light on one of the most devastating human rights crises of our time. Sudan is in the grip of a humanitarian catastrophe, with millions displaced, essential services obliterated, and civil society under siege. But among the countless atrocities, one stands out in its sheer brutality and inhumanity— and that is the systematic and targeted violence against women and girls. And this is not just collateral damage; it is a deliberate weapon of war.”

Ramon Rahangmetan, Co-Founder of the Circle for Sustainable Europe, a European human rights organization, mentioned that: “The principles that guide us under international law must be more than mere words on paper.” and called on the international and European community to help the Sudanese civilians victims of famine and killings by massive chemical weapons used by the Sudanese armed forces.

ABDELRAHIM GREIN Adam, the head of the Peace and Democratic Transition Organization and a Sudanese human rights and peace activist, highlighted the need to come together to support the Sudanese population that is victim of chemical weapons and aggression from the Sudanese Armed forces: “We want peace in Sudan and we condemn the killing of civilians on ethnic and religious grounds. We want to end the Muslim Brotherhood rule in Sudan, end the bombing of civilians by military aircraft, and the use of chemical weapons against civilians. This position is shared by many international organizations, non-governmental organizations, and citizens, who demand responsibility and respect for humanitarian standards to avoid unnecessary suffering and human rights violations experienced by the Sudanese people.”

Mohamed BEBEKER MOHAMED, Representative of the African Center for Democracy and Development, called the international community to support the peace efforts in Sudan to end the war: ”We believe that dialogue is the only way to end violence and that justice can only be achieved through equality among all Sudanese. We call on all parties to prioritize wisdom, to choose negotiation over battlefields, and to embrace unity over division. We urge the international community not to remain passive observers but to take responsibility in supporting peace efforts and helping to end the suffering. We also call on every Sudanese, wherever they may be, to be ambassadors of peace and to reject all forms of hatred and violence. Sudan deserves peace. Sudanese people deserve to live with dignity and security. Let us make our voices a relentless cry for peace until the dream becomes reality.”

All participants and human rights organizations, lawyers ,journalists and academics condemned the use of chemical weapons, violence against women and children as well as discrimination against the ethnic and the religious minorities mainly the Christian minority by the Armed Sudanese forces and called for immediate action to stop the war and called for peace and dialogue between the different ethnic ,religious and political groups to end one of the biggest humanitarian crisis with more than 11 million displaced plus numerous victims of famine and killings.

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