EDA National Armaments Directors (NADs) met on 19 October at the European Defence Agency for their biannual Steering Board meeting under the chairmanship of Czech Deputy Minister of Defence, Daniel Kostoval.
EDA Chief Executive Jorge Domecq updated NADs on progress made in key defence-related dossiers, including the EU Global Strategy Implementation Plan on European Security and Defence, the Policy Framework for Systematic and Long-Term Defence Cooperation, the Pilot Project on defence research, the Preparatory Action on CSDP-related research as well as the EDA strategic review process.
Lead nations also briefed participants on the status of the four key capability programmes: Air-to-Air Refuelling (AAR), cyber defence, GovSatCom, and RPAS.
NADs then discussed a wide variety of topics, including industry involvement in defence cooperation, the Collaborative Database (CODABA), the ongoing work on the setting up of a Cooperative Financial Mechanism, energy and environmental implications for the defence sector and EDA-Nato cooperation.
Israel’s C-130J Samson:
North Korea’s recent aggressive actions, including abrogation of the 1953 ceasefire, nuclear detonation, and testing of short and long-range missiles, has increased international tensions and directly threatened its southern neighbor. South Korea has been modernizing its defenses for some time now, and a recent request for Standard Missile 2 (SM-2) systems from the United States is a case in point.
The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announced May 26/09 [PDF] South Korea’s official request to buy 46 SM-2 Block IIIA missiles, 35 SM-2 Block IIIB missiles, 3 SM-2 Block IIIB Telemetry Missiles for testing, 84 SM-2 missile containers, and associated test and support equipment, spare and repair parts, training, and other forms of support. The estimated cost is $170 million, and the prime contractor will be Raytheon in Tucson, AZ. The sale would require temporary travel for U.S. Government or contractor representatives to the Republic of Korea for in-country training, as a recurring requirement during the life of the missile systems.
How does this purchase fit into South Korea’s overall defense plans?
While press reports didn’t identify the type of short-range missiles that North Korea tested in May from Musudan-ri, North Korea has tested both short range ballistic missiles and HY-2 anti-ship missiles on a number of occasions over the last decade. The 150 – 200 km HY-2 coast-to-ship tactical missile weapon system, with the Western designation “Seersucker,” is employed at coastal fortifications, bases, or islands, to attack enemy surface ships. Ship-launched versions are also produced.
Since South Korea would be reliant on shipping for war supplies, keeping its sea lanes open against naval and aerial attacks would be a key strategic objective. A recent Yonhap News report adds that with the renunciation of the 1953 cease-fire:
“The North said it will no longer guarantee the safe passage of civilian ships, as well as U.S. and South Korean warships, operating along the Yellow Sea border.”
A second dimension of the North Korean threat targets South Korea’s cities, as well as allied military bases throughout the region. North Korea recently tested medium- and long-range ballistic missiles, most noticeably the April 5/09 test of a long-range Taepodong-2 missile with a range of over 6,700 km. North Korea has a large arsenal of short- to medium-range ballistic missiles, and exports them to countries around the world. The Associated Press has compiled an informative list of North Korea’s ballistic missiles and capabilities.
ROKN KDX-II: DDH 976The SM-2’s primary role is to provide area defense against enemy aircraft and anti-ship missiles. The current generation of SM-2s, Blocks IIIA and IIIB, capitalize on technology improvements to substantially increase performance against advanced anti-ship missile threats. In a pinch, the SM-2 can also be used against small and fast naval surface targets. South Korea already uses SM-2 missiles on its KDX-II (SM-2 Block IIIA) and its KDX-III AEGIS (SM-2 Block IIIB) destroyers.
The SM-2 Block IV is a different variant of the missiles that South Korea is ordering. It adds a booster rocket, allowing it to be used for terminal phase ballistic missile defense as well as wide area anti-aircraft defense. It can be employed in stand alone mode, or alongside longer-range Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) missiles that add late mid-course interception. The Bush administration was working on such as “system of systems” approach to defense against ballistic missiles from rogue states, such as North Korea.
SM-3 missiles fired by American ships on station, and Patriot PAC-3 missiles operated on Korean territory by American forces, can already provide some coverage against a limited number of North Korean missiles. At the moment, however, South Korea lacks the native ability to intercept ballistic missiles over its territory.
Under South Korea’s current modernization program, that will change. A billion-dollar South Korean program called AMD-Cell will install long-range radars that can track ballistic missiles as well as enemy aircraft deep within North Korea, and link those radars to new command centers that would be able to share information with allied forces. Another billion-dollar program called SAM-X will give Korea land-based Patriot PAC-3 systems. They offer marked improvements over its older Nike and Hawk anti-aircraft missiles, and add short-range protection against ballistic missiles.
While the SM-2 order will not give South Korea additional ballistic missile defense capabilities, it does fit within a larger context of modern radars, improved missiles, and strengthened anti-aircraft defenses that can protect South Korean and allied forces on land and at sea. See “Raytheon’s Standard Missile Naval Defense Family,” for more information about the SM-2 and SM-3 missile families.
UpdateOctober 20/16: North Korea could have an operational Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile by next year, according to experts. John Schilling, an aerospace engineer specializing in rocket propulsion, wrote on the 38 North website that Pyongyang’s aggressive testing schedule also points to its determination to have the weapon ready in the near future. The dictatorship’s latest test this month was tested far from its Musudan-ri test facility, instead moving to a roadside near Kusong. Schilling likened the move to “taking the training wheels off the bicycle, seeing if you really have mastered something new.”
With its own spy satellite program facing delays, South Korea is contemplating leasing a surveillance satellite from Israel. Seoul is already heavily reliant on intelligence data provided by the US and military officials are keen to be able to independently obtain information on North Korea’s military activities. In addition, the military plans to purchase another 90 KEPD-350K air-launched cruise missiles from Germany to add to the 170 currently en route.
July 8/16: The US State Department has cleared the sale of 17 SM-2 Block IIIB standard missiles to South Korea. Estimated at a cost of $60 million, the medium-range surface-to-air missiles will be used to compliment the RoK Navy’s existing stocks of SM-2 Block IIIA/IIIB inventory. The missiles operate on Aegis destroyers as ballistic missile interceptors and represent a beefing up by Seoul of its stocks to counter potential threats from North Korea.
Russia and India signed a major arms deal on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Goa this past weekend. The deal included four major components.
First, India becomes the second country after China to receive S-400 long-range air defense missiles. The agreement is for Russia to provide either 4 or 5 S-400 battalions to India. (Russian sources report the lower number, while Indian sources went with the higher one.) While a contract has not yet been signed, Russia signed a contract with China in 2014 to export four battalions for approximately $2 billion. The first systems are expected to be delivered in 2020.
Second, the two sides signed an agreement for India to purchase four Project 11356 (Admiral Grigorovich class) frigates. This agreement resolves the saga of the Project 11356 frigates that were originally ordered for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet but could not be completed after Ukraine refused to provide turbines for the ships in the aftermath of the 2014 conflict in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. An agreement has been reached for Ukraine to provide the turbines for the ships as long as they are exported to India. According to Alexey Nikolsky of Vedomosti, one of the three ships will be completed at Yantar, while the hulls of the other two will be transferred to India and completed there. In addition, a fourth ship will be built entirely in India. The BMPD blog states that two ships will be completed in Russia and two built in India. It should be noted that India already operates six frigates of this type, which it calls the Talwar class. The total value of this agreement may be around $3 billion, which may include Russian assistance in the modernization of the HSL shipyard in India.
Third, the two sides signed an agreement for India to lease an inactive Akula-class multi-purpose nuclear submarine. India is already leasing a submarine of this class from Russia, the INS Chakra (formerly known as the Nerpa), which has been in the Indian Navy since 2012. Although the specific submarine to be leased was not mentioned, Russian contacts report that it is likely to be one of the Northern Fleet submarines currently being overhauled at Zvezdochka (Samara or Bratsk), rather than the hull that has been sitting incomplete at the Amur shipyard since the mid-1990s and has in the past been mentioned as a possible candidate for leasing to India. The agreement noted that the submarine is expected to be refurbished and modernized prior to transfer. Given the Indian Navy’s experience with the modernization of the INS Vikramaditya, I wonder what provisions about delays and cost overruns the Indian side will include in the contract.
This agreement signals that India has given up on leasing or buying a Yasen-class submarine. As I have indicated previously, Russia was most likely unwilling to provide its most advanced submarine to India, either because of its capabilities or because constraints on the number of Yasen-class submarines that can be built in Russia would mean that providing such a submarine to India would result in delays in the procurement of Yasen submarines for the Russian Navy.
Finally, Rosoboronexport, Russian Helicopters, and the Indian company HAL have agreed to create a joint venture for the production of Ka-226T helicopters. According to the BMPD blog, the venture will buy 60 helicopters from Russian Helicopters and then assemble an additional 140 in Bangalore under license.
According to Konstantin Makienko of CAST, the total value of these four agreements is likely to substantially exceed $6 billion. The agreements show that although India has sought to diversify its suppliers for military equipment, it will continue to have a strong relationship with Russia in this field, particularly when it comes to hardware that it cannot receive from other suppliers (such as nuclear submarines and long-range air defense missiles).