Defence`s Feeds

Russian RSD-10 Pioner (SS-20 Saber) Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile

The US Navy's second Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69), also known as Ike, is set to undergo its planned incremental availability (PIA) at Norfolk Naval Shipyard (NNSY) in Portsmouth, Virginia.

Joint venture (JV) partners Sener and Babcock have completed the delivery of the fourth upgraded Agusta Bell 212 (AB212) helicopter to the Spanish Ministry of Defence.

Kilgore Flares Co LCC has won a contract worth $30.79m to produce and deliver up to 1,260,638 SM-875/ALE simulator flares, which will be used by US Navy pilots and ordnance technicians.

US Embassy Manila Deputy Chief of Mission (DCM) Michael Klecheski has transferred the custody of a new Joint Maritime Law Enforcement Training Center (JMLETC) to the Philippines.

In this issue: Autonomous systems for frontline resupply, electric hub-drive technology for armoured vehicles, the F-35’s arrival in Europe, how to turn an air force base into a ‘smart base’, the future of littoral warfare and more.

Americas

• Against the backdrop of Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un threatening each other with nuclear annihilation, Lockheed Martin has reported an increased number of missile defense queries from customers. The company said Tuesday that the “level of dialogue around missile defense is now at the prime minister and minister of defense level,” adding that over the last 12-18 months, countries have increasingly put missile defense at the top of their list of desired capabilities, as tensions in East Asia mount over North Korea’s insistence on furthering its nuclear weapon ambitions. Reuters notes that shares in Lockheed are up nearly 8 percent, to $300.10, since North Korea’s first long-range missile test on July 4. The stock is up 20 percent year-to-date.

• Kratos Defense and Security Solutions has said that a secret UAV developed by the company will enter production by the end of this financial quarter. News that Kratos had such a platform was revealed by the company earlier this year when it announced a series of successful demonstration flights with a new jet-powered, high-subsonic UAV. It’s believed that the drone is being developed for an unknown government agency and is designed for an anti-access area denied environment with an altitude performance ranging up to 45,000ft. It’s launched on a railed catapult and recovered by deploying a parachute and floating to the ground.

Middle East & Africa

• Turkey has contracted local manufacturer BMC for the production and delivery of 529 tactical armored vehicles. Estimated to value $350 million, the deal will also see contributions from other local companies designated as sub-contractors. The contract also requests an unspecified number of the Yeni Kirpi— an advanced version of the Kirpi—BMC’s mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicle which was showcased in May 2017 at the IDEF defense and aerospace exhibition in Istanbul. Once delivered, the vehicles will primarily be used in Turkey’s southeastern regions where security forces have been tackling renewed violence from Kurdish militant group, the PKK, since the breakdown of a ceasefire in July 2015.

• Production of interceptors jointly-developed by US and Israeli industry for the latter’s multi-tiered missile defense system is being ramped up, as three interceptor programs transition from low-rate initial production (LRIP) to full-rate production. The Boeing-IAI developed Arrow-3, and the Rafael-Raytheon developed Stunner—used in the David’s Sling system—and Tamir—used by the Iron Dome—interceptors are built in a large part by US-based firms, with a network of contractors and sub-contractors stretching out across 30 of its 50 states. This is due to congressional mandates and government-to-government agreements which stipulates that at least 50% of the work is produced in the US. Potential exports are also being taken into account, as the Stunner—marketed abroad as the SkyCeptor—is currently being considered by the Polish government for its Patriot active defense system.

Europe

• The crash of a German army Tiger helicopter in Mali which resulted in the death of two crew members was caused by the rotorcraft losing its rotor, a defense ministry report has revealed. While the report stated that it is still to early to speculate on the cause of the accident, it ruled out that the helicopter was downed in an attack, adding that “once the vehicle had started to descend, parts of the aircraft broke off, including the main rotor blades.” This could potentially mean that the cause of the in-air break up was due to maintenance or manufacturing issues, which if it is the case, could be bad news for manufacturer Airbus. Berlin’s decision to send four Tigers alongside four NH-90 helicopters to aid a UN peacekeeping mission in Mali earlier this year proved controversial with some lawmakers, after the Tiger required extra maintenance given the high heat and other environmental conditions in the desert country. Officials maintain that up until the incident, all four Tigers had been operating without issue.

Asia Pacific

• India’s Kalyani Group, in partnership with Israel’s Rafael, has opened the country’s first-ever private missile subsystems manufacturing facility. Located in Hyrdabad and trading under the name Kalyani Rafael Advanced Systems, the facility will undertake the production and assembly of Spike anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM) and its related technologies such as missile electronics, command, control and guidance, electro-optics, remote weapon systems, precision-guided munitions, and system engineering. In addition to establishing a robust supply chain in India to undertake spares and other parts requirements of missiles to be manufactured in the country, the joint venture will also look to export Spike ATGM family and SPICE precision-guided munitions to Southeast Asian counties. The company can also boast the status of being India’s largest-ever foreign direct investment joint venture firm.

• The war, which has thankfully remained one of just words, between the leaders of the US and North Korea continue this week after US President Donald Trump promised that North Korea would would be met with “fire and fury” if it continued its aggressive testing of intercontinental ballistic missile and nuclear technology. Not deterred by such remarks, Kim Jung-un threatened nuclear strikes on the island of Guam, a US territory in the Pacific that boasts a military base that includes a submarine squadron, an airbase and a Coast Guard group. In the absence of any diplomatic tact from both leaders, Guam Governor Eddie Calvo dismissed the threat and said the island was prepared for “any eventuality” with strategically placed defenses. He said he had been in touch with the White House and there was no change in the threat level.

Today’s Video

• Carrier Queen Elizabeth strike group, Saxon Warrior 2017:

The Royal Australian Navy (RAN) has awarded a new four-year contract to Cubic Defence Australia for the development and provision of local and distributed simulation-enabled training events.

Atlas Elektronik has secured a £48m contract from the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) to construct and deliver up to 38 workboats for the British Royal Navy.

The Egyptian Navy has officially received the second of four Howaldtswerke-Deutche Werft (HDW) 209/1400mod-class submarines from Germany.

Armed militants have overrun Afghan Local Police (ALP) and a public uprising unit’s posts in the Mirza Olang village of Sayad district in Sar-e Pul province on 6 August 2017. Dozens of civilians were reportedly killed. There is another dimension, however, that created widespread international media reporting about the incident: claims by local officials that Taleban and Daesh fighters – usually fighting each other – had committed the atrocities in a “rare joint” operation. AAN’s Obaid Ali explored the insurgents’ configuration in this area and found no Daesh presence there (with input from Thomas Ruttig).

On 3 August 2017, the Taleban carried out a large-scale assault against positions of the Afghan Local Police (ALP) and public uprising units stationed in Mirza Olang village, roughly 15 kilometers south of Sayad district. Its population mainly consists of Shia Hazaras. Afghan media, quoting local officials (see for example here), reported a large number of civilian casualties. (The Taleban denied that allegation, see here.) On 8 August 2017, the release of 235 hostages was reported, but provincial authorities said more were still “trapped.” A local ALP commander told AAN about 40 families were caught up in the fighting and their fate remains unclear.

UNAMA stated that it was investigating the reports. If the reports about the civilian killings are confirmed and local Taleban commanders are responsible, it would represent a departure from the repeatedly declared official Taleban position that the Shia minority is not considered a target and would be tantamount to another war crime.

The Taleban attack on ALP and uprising positions in Mirza Olang, however, corresponds with patterns observed in other provinces more generally. In Baghlan province, for instance, the Taleban conducted a large-scale offensive against ALP and public uprising bases led by a Hazara commander in 2016 who refused to surrender his security checkpoint at Surkh Kotal (read previous AAN analysis on this here). ALP units have also been targeted in Zabul and Uruzgan provinces, in some cases over long periods of time (AAN analysis here, here and here).

Sayad district borders Qush Tepa and Darzab, both also highly contested districts of neighbouring Jawzjan province in the west and southwest and Belcheragh district of Faryab and Kohistanat district of Sar-e Pul in the south. Kohistanat was captured by the Taleban in July 2015 and remains largely under Taleban control. The militants consider Mirza Olang a strategic area from where they can threaten Sayad’s district centre as well as the highway leading to Kohistanat district of Sar-e Pul further in the south. Both districts have been in the focus of Taleban activity in this remote northern province for a number of years. Their most recent attack on Sayad occurred in April this year. Kohistanat has been largely controlled by the Taleban since summer 2015, and its district centre has changed hands several times over the past two years, in July 2015 and again in late July this year, only to be reclaimed by Afghan government forces two days later (reporting here and here).

Eyewitness: how the resistance collapsed

The ALP and public uprising units in the village are led by Hazara commanders. In total, they were able to muster only under 70 fighters from the Hazara community: 36 from the ALP unit and from the 30 public uprising forces.

Gul Hussain Sharifi, the leading ALP commander in Mirza Olang, told AAN the Taleban had been besieging the security checkpoints for two years. According to him, the local government ignored several requests to send in reinforcements. For the recent clash, he added, the Taleban had gathered fighters from all around the province, and the limited number of the local security forces were not able to defeat them. After a day and half of intense clashes, one ALP member and four public uprising fighters were killed. Eventually elders from the village approached him, asking him to retreat with his fighters as otherwise all of them would be captured or killed by the militants. (According to established guidelines, elders vet the ALP members from their villages.)

In early morning of 6 August 2017, Sharifi told AAN, he and his fighters and members of the public uprising group members fled to provincial centre all along with their families. That led to the collapse of the security checkpoints, after which point other villagers also fled the area. Only ten families along with four elders stayed in the village. According to Sharifi, some families who intended to flee got stuck in the Mirza Olang valley where fighting was going on. He said that “35 civilians who wanted to flee from the village were shot dead by militants.”

Habib Qasemi, another ALP commander in the area who resisted against the Taleban in the recent assault and managed to flee to provincial centre, told AAN that over the past two years most of the public uprising fighters had left their jobs due to a fear that the area will fall into the militants’ hand. In that period, he said,their number dropped from 150 fighters to only 30. He said that “this is not enough force to protect this strategic area.”

Taleban structures in Sayad

The Taleban had established a strong, multi-ethnic foothold in Sar-e Pul at least by 2012 (see AAN analysis here), starting from first pockets in 2009 (see this AAN report, p4). The province is another example where they successfully recruited and integrated non-Pashtuns; most of the positions in the local Taleban structures are held by them (AAN’s previous analysis on this here). This leaves limited potential space for Daesh-affiliated groups, and there have been no reports that such cases were successful over the longer term.

A recently published report by Kabul-based The Liaison Office and German institute BICC mentions two cases from late 2015 when “influential local commanders—a Tajik affiliated with Hizb-e Islami in Kohistan and an Arab described as Salafi Taliban—had independently ‘invited’ Daesh to their respective area to increase their power base“ through “Urdu-speaking Pakistani guests.” Reportedly, the ‘guests’ left the province again after about a month, and there was no indication that “a link had been created with [Daesh’s Afghan headquarters in] Nangarhar and the Daesh Shura.” The report also mentions that the Taleban’s difficulties with guaranteeing a steady flow of supplies to local commanders might encourage them to look for other sponsors.

In the case of Sayad, Mullah Nader leads the Taleban in the district. He is an Aimaq from Al-Malek village in Sayad and served as a group leader during the Taleban’s Emirate in the 1990s. After the fall of the Taleban regime in 2001, he laid down his weapons and ran a small business (most likely drug smuggling) in Kohistanat district. He was arrested by government forces in 2003 and later managed to escape. He has been reported active in the area again at least since 2010 and re-established the Taleban movement in the province by mobilising fighters from his town and his network of drug smugglers. Since then he has served in different posts in the Taleban’s shadow administrative and military structure. Recently, Mullah Nader has been appointed as the Taleban’s shadow district governor for Sayad.

According to sources close to the Taleban in Sar-e Pul, he has strong family relations with Sher Muhammad, another Taleban mid-level commander in Sayad. Sher Muhammad (alias Ghazanfar) is also an Aimaq, from Kandah village of Sayad. He received a religious education in Sar-e Pul and is currently leading a small group of 25 fighters, mostly his relatives and villagers.

After the recent attack and the killings in Mirza Olang, many media outlets quoted Sayad’s district governor Sharif Aminyar, claiming that Ghazanfar is Daesh-affiliated. Speaking to AAN, provincial council member Aref Sharifi also said there was no difference between Daesh and the Taleban in the district and that both groups cooperated and conducted coordinated offensives against security forces.

The recent attack on the Sayad security posts was led by Mullah Nader. Ghazanfar and his fighters fought with them under the Taleban banner. The Taleban also claimed Ghazanfar as their commander after the recent fighting in Sayad (read here), indirectly, though perhaps not intentionally, assigning responsibility to him for the killings of civilians in Sayad.

According to sources close to Taleban in Sar-e Pul, before the fighting, Ghazanfar had reportedly visited Daesh-affiliated commander Qari Hekmat in his area of operation in Qush Tepa district of Jawzjan. According to onging AAN research, Hekmat is an Uzbek and former Taleban commander who had been expelled from the movement after a dispute over taxation with the Taleban shadow provincial governor and ‘unauthorised kidnappings’ and subsequently declared allegiance with Daesh. He largely controls Qush Tepa district. (The Jawzjan insurgency will be discussed in more detail in an upcoming AAN’s dispatch.) It is possible that Ghazanfar even declared allegiance to Daesh as the New York Times reported.

According to those sources, however, Mullah Nader reached out to Ghazanfar and brought him back to Sayad with his group of 25 fighters and under the Taleban banner.

Conclusion

The Taleban’s large presence, their obvious intention to eliminate rival groups and their superior manpower and resources limit the space for Daesh to establish a footprint in areas such as Sayad, and in fact in most areas of northern and north-eastern Afghanistan (read our previous dispatch on this here and here). With Salafist influences and sympathies for Daesh spreading among some limited religious circles and younger fighters, or due to funding and supply issues, local commanders might find it opportune to signal readiness to ally to Daesh, or at least explore the option. This seems to have been the case with commander Ghazanfar. His case and research quoted above also show that the Taleban are still able to rein in such commanders in most cases. In this light, to interpret the Sayad attack as a joint ‘Taleban-Daesh’ operation stretches the facts too far.

 

With more than 30 years of experience in developing, manufacturing and testing 2-stroke engines, 3W has designed and patented the newest generation of gas engines for the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) industry.

Americas

• The US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has given Raytheon a $66.4 million contract modification for the Standard Missile-3 Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense program. Work will be carried out in Tuscon, Ariz and includes engineering work, support services and analysis of the SM-3 Block IIA missile and BMD 5.1 flight testing and certification. Scheduled completion has been given for Sep. 30, 2018. This modification brings the total contract cost to $2.07 billion.

• Raytheon has been awarded a $25.9 million US Air Force contract for modifications and retrofitting of sensors on the RQ-4 Global Hawk Block 30 UAV. Under the terms of the deal, work to be provided by the firm includes engineering for upgrades to the Enhanced Integrated Sensor Suite and retrofitting of the Enhanced Electro-Optical Receiving Unit on Global Hawks. The work will be performed in El Segundo, Calif., with an expected completion date of Feb. 4, 2019.

Middle East & Africa

• Kratos has received a $46.2 million contract awarded by the US Department of Defense to provide training and technical services in support of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 program. Work on the foreign military sale will take place in both Saudi Arabia and Orlando, Fla., and is scheduled for completion by August 2020. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 program aims to broaden the country’s investments away from oil, implement government services reform, and building its own defense industry. The plan hopes to localize 50 percent of defense spending in Saudi Arabia, reducing costs and dependence on foreign military equipment and boosting the Saudi defense export sector.

• Russia is to test its Mi-28UB attack helicopter in Syria, according to Russian Helicopters CEO, Andrei Boginsky. The helicopter, which has a combined combat and training configuration of the Mi-28N Night Hunter and features dual controls for both crew members, will be used primarily to train new pilots but can also take part in combat operations. Russian Helicopters expects to deliver eight new Mi-28UB units to the Russian Aerospace Forces by the end of the year, with the first to be delivered to the 344th center of combat training and retraining center in Torzhok.

Europe

• Estonia firm Milrem has brought its Titan unmanned ground vehicle to Michigan, USA, as it looks for US sub-contractors to help with production. The UGV is a joint effort with QinetiQ North America and is comprised of a modular hybrid unmanned ground vehicle from Milrem and a tactical robot controller and applique kit from QNA. The system is being displayed at the Ground Vehicle Systems Engineering and Technology Symposium, and has been selected by the US Army’s Squad Maneuver Equipment Transport program for testing. In addition to acting as a support platform for dismounted troops, it can also be used to carry remote weapon stations with small- and large-caliber weapons.

• France’s Scorpion modernization program is likely to suffer a funding hit as Paris looks to skim $1 billion off this year’s defense budget. The comments were made to Parliament by former chief of staff Army Gen. Pierre de Villiers prior to his resignation on July 19. “If we do not receive the required funding, we will need to postpone this program, with all the consequences that will entail,” he said, adding that Contact—a key software-defined radio used on the program’s vehicles—is expected to be a casualty. Thales supplies the Contact system and is an industrial partner with Nexter and Renault Trucks Defense on the Griffon troop carrier as well as the Jaguar reconnaissance and combat vehicle being developed under the Scorpion program.

Asia Pacific

• A bipartisan delegation of Taiwanese lawmakers visiting the US last week have struck a deal for turbofan engines to power its indigenous advanced jet trainer. During the visit, the delegation visited the International Turbine Engine Co (ITEC)—a joint venture between US-based Honeywell Aerospace and Taiwan’s Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC), created to facilitate technology transfers to and procurement by Taiwan— and convinced Honeywell to drop a planned price hike on the engines, which would have imposed an additional cost of billions of New Taiwan dollars and complicated the government’s plans for the trainer’s development. Lawmakers from both parties—the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT)—told the US contractors that no additional budget for the engines’ procurement is available under Taiwan’s parliamentary rules, and any price hike would delay the purchase.

• South Korea is planning to acquire another batch of 90 Taurus air-to-ground cruise missiles from Germany’s Taurus Systems GmbH, with local technology and electronics firms now allowed to join the offset program for the purchase. The firms have been asked to submit a list of products that they want to sell to the German firm, which includes personal computers and electric parts. In addition to the Taurus missiles, the Pentagon stated on Monday that it was reviewing bilateral ballistic missile guidelines with South Korea that could allow Seoul to have more powerful missiles as tensions with North Korea rise over its missile and nuclear programs.

Today’s Video

• The Honeywell engine that will power Taiwan’s advanced jet trainer:

https://youtu.be/hWPuzQhawlI

An Iranian QOM-1 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) has made an unsafe and unprofessional interaction with the US Navy fighter jet F/A-18E Super Hornet, the US Central Command (Centcom) officials confirmed.

The Government of Canada has awarded a new contract to Marine Recycling for the disposal of two Royal Canadian Navy (RCN) vessels.

Pentagon Defense Press Operations director navy captain Jeff Davis has announced that the US Marine Corps' (USMC) MV-22 Osprey aircraft has crashed in waters off the eastern coast of Australia with 26 personnel on-board.

The steel for the British Royal Navy's Type 26 frigate was cut on the River Clyde, MBDA completed the first firing of its Sea Venom / Anti-Navire Léger (ANL) anti-ship missile and USMC's CH-53K aircraft completes its first extended cross-country flig…

Americas

• The US Navy has awarded Boeing a $11.1 million contract modification to conduct additional ground repair work on the P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft operated by the service. Work will be carried out at Jacksonville, Fla., as well as other sites throughout the United States and locations in Japan, Australia and Italy, with a scheduled completion of June 2018. The Navy currently operates a fleet of 50 Poseidons and expect future deliveries to bring the fleet to 109 as it replaces its older P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft.

• Chinese-made commercial drones and related software will no longer be used by US Army soldiers, as the service cites cyber vulnerabilities on units produced by the company DJI as justification for the ban. An Army memo published online stipulated that it required service members to “cease all use, uninstall all DJI applications, remove all batteries/storage media and secure equipment for follow-on direction.” DJI responded by saying it was “surprised and disappointed” by the move, adding that it would be contacting the Army to clarify what it means by “cyber vulnerabilities” and was willing to work with the Pentagon to address concerns.

• Lockheed Martin has been awarded a $161.4 million contract for the production of 150 launch assemblies for the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) surface-to-surface missile. Issued as part of the system’s Service Life Extension Program, which aims to replace ageing components, work will be take place at sites across the US with an estimated completion date of Feb. 3, 2020. ATACMS have been in service with the Army since the 1980s, deployed from the M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems. It is expected to eventually be replaced by the Long Range Precision Fires missile system which would have longer range and improved guidance systems.

Europe

• Germany’s main opposition party, the Social Democrats (SPD), has come out against NATO’s target of spending 2 percent of national output on defense, slamming Chancellor Angela Merkel and her ruling CDU/CSU coalition of bending the knee to US President Donald Trump. The centre-left party, who are 15 percent behind the CDU/CSU in the polls ahead of next month’s general election, are instead advocating the creation of a strong European defense union and, ultimately, a European army—a stance that may resonate with a deeply pacifist German public that remains skeptical of military engagements. Political analysts say the SPD’s tougher stance on military projects could help lay the groundwork for a post-election coalition with the pro-environment Greens and the left-wing Die Linke.

• Europe’s next medium altitude long endurance (MALE) UAS will be based on a twin-engined turboprop design after a ten month study conducted by the manufacturing consortium consisting of Airbus, Dassault, and Leonardo. Billed as the eventual rival to the US-made, single-engined turboprop-powered, General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper, further trade-off studies will now be conducted in order to prepare for an upcoming system requirements review (SRR). The four nation program will develop the UAV for France, Germany, Italy and Spain, and is been seen as a flag bearer of a renewed interest in expanding wider European defense cooperation.

Asia Pacific

• In response to persistent ballistic missile tests, the UN has imposed fresh sanctions on North Korea that expects to cut $3 billion from its annual export revenue. Coal, seafood, and iron ore products are all covered in the US-drafted resolution, and gained the backing from both Russia and an increasingly frustrated China, Pyongyang’s usual protector from such diplomatic pressures. China’s UN Ambassador Liu Jieyi called on North Korea to “cease taking actions that might further escalate tensions,” while also calling for the dismantlement of the THAAD anti-missile defense system in South Korea. US President Donald Trump hailed the diplomatic victory on Twitter. “The United Nations Security Council just voted 15-0 to sanction North Korea. China and Russia voted with us. Very big financial impact!”, he said.

• The US State Department has cleared the possible foreign military sale to the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States, of a SRP Operations and Maintenance follow-on sustainment package. Estimated to cost $400 million, the package includes the provision of contractor logistics support (sustainment); engineering services and technical updates to address equipment obsolescence; transportation and material costs associated with contractor repair and return services; spare and repair parts; support and test equipment; publications and technical documentation; personnel training and training equipment; US Government and contractor engineering; technical and logistics support services; and other related elements of logistical and program support. The sale is expected to improve Taiwan’s capability to provide early warning against current and future airborne threats.

• Australia has been cleared by the US State Department to purchase 1,952 ALE-70(V)/T-1687A Electronic Towed Decoy Countermeasures and associated support in a package estimated to be worth $108.7 million. The systems will go towards ensuring the survivability of Canberra’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter fleet, and work will be carried out primarily by BAE Systems. Australia has 72 F-35s on order with the US in a procurement deal worth $17 billion.

Today’s Video

• 2nd Lt. Charles E. Carlson, a USAF P-27 pilot lost in Europe during WW2, finally laid to rest:

https://youtu.be/xIucxRYQv9c

I wrote the following article for The National Interest.

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The Zapad-2017 military exercise that will take place in September in Russia and Belarus has already begun to draw attention in the Western press. In recent days, media outlets have published somewhat panicked accounts about the unprecedented numbers of Russian troops conducting drills on the borders of vulnerable eastern European countries like Poland and Lithuania. Others are arguing that once Russian troops enter Belarus to participate in the exercise, they are likely to stay behind “in order to give Moscow a more-advanced forward base in Europe” or, in the less carefully chosen words of some Ukrainian officials, to occupy Belarus possibly as a prelude to an invasion of Ukraine from the north. Given this level of excitement about a military exercise still six weeks away, it may be useful to analyze what we actually know about the upcoming exercise and its predecessors.

The Zapad exercise is a regularly scheduled event that has been held quadrennially since 1999. What’s more, it is part of an annual rotating series of large scale exercises that serve as the capstone to the Russian military’s annual training cycle. The series rotates through the four main Russian operational strategic commands (Eastern, Caucasus, Central and Western) that give name to the exercises. Similar major strategic operational exercises were held in the fall throughout the Soviet period as well. In other words, everyone has known that this exercise would be held in the early fall of 2017 since at least four years ago. The only uncertainty was regarding the scope and exact parameters of the exercise.

These aspects remain uncertain at the present time. Official Russian sources have indicated that the total number of troops involved in the exercise will not exceed 13,000, while Western officials and analysts have been quoted as sayingthat as many as 100,000 Russian personnel may be involved. Previous Zapad exercises have been on the larger side, with Zapad-2013 involving approximately 75,000 troops and personnel. Part of the discrepancy in numbers may stem from a disagreement over who should be counted. The highest Western numbers usually include not just members of the Russian armed forces, but also personnel from security agencies and civilian officials who may be involved in parts of the exercise. Furthermore, the Russian military may choose to conduct other related exercises that are not technically part of Zapad-2017 and would therefore not be included in the official declaration on the number of troops involved.

What we do know is that the total number of Russian troops on Belarusian territory is not expected to exceed 3,000 personnel. … <To read the rest of the article, click here>

The temporary capture of Janikhel district centre by Taleban forces in late July 2017 stands out in the relatively static, mountainous and geographically and tribally fractured region of eastern Paktia and Khost. There, most district centres continue to be in government hands, while many areas outside of them are more or less under Taleban control. However, the situation has become more fluid over some time. Although the capture was a raid and show-of-force, rather than an attempt to seize and hold a district centre, it seems to reflect a more aggressive approach on the part of the insurgents in that area. As AAN Thomas Ruttig and Fazal Muzhary find, the Taleban’s increased footprint in and stronger hold on parts of this area close to the border with Pakistan is also the outcome of a long-term neglect of an area that, for a long time, has been taken for granted as being pro-government.

What happened in Janikhel?

Early on 25 July 2017, after two days of fighting, a large group of Taleban fighters overran the centre of Janikhel district. The district itself is a small, mountainous strip of land at Paktia’s border with Khost province, close to Pakistani Waziristan and with a number of important local roads running through it. On 5 August 2017, government officials reported they had recaptured the district centre (media report here). Local observers based in the region and in Kabul told AAN that a large government force was deployed and this convoy made it to and retook the district centre. Later, Afghan officials were flown in to see the success.

This followed some days of ANSF fighting their way up to Reshpegi Kandao, a pass about three kilometres away from the district town on a winding route leading uphill through forested and mountainous area that had been heavily mined by the Taleban. Fighting seems to have finished now (ie as of 7 August 2017) and the insurgents returned to their previous positions. They are mainly in Kotkai, a plain towards neighbouring Musakhel district (in Khost province), where they have established several bases over recent years. They might have left the district centre, the observers believe, in order to avoid attracting airstrikes to the area.

The exact number of casualties of the fighting on both sides is not clear. Both the Afghan government and the Taleban have claimed to have inflicted considerable casualties on each other. Government sources, after the recapture of the district centre, claimed 140 insurgents were killed and over 120 more wounded. Provincial police spokesman Sardar Wali Tabasum said that at least sixteen ‘Pakistani militia forces’ were among those killed during the initial days of the fighting. The Taleban claimed they only lost one killed. According to Abdullah Hasrat, the spokesman for Paktia’s governor, five Afghan security forces were killed and another four wounded, but local people told Azadi Radio (see here) that they saw dead bodies of 12 security forces one day after the fall of the district centre to the Taleban. The Taleban claimed 15 ANSF killed and 15 more were captured alive – a fact earlier denied by Hasrat. In a video released on 30 July 2017, they were shown sitting in a semi-circle being questioned about their provinces of origin and whether they had been treated well (which all of them said was the case). The video also showed some dead bodies of ANSF fighters.

According to the observers, the Taleban carried away large amounts of weapons, including a number of US-made Humvee military vehicles. (Such vehicles are sometimes used as car bombs during attacks, such as that on 20 July 2017 in Gereshk, see here, probably because the Taleban lack the means to keep them operational.)

The district centre fell to the Taleban on the second day after the fighting broke out. On the first day, the pro-government defenders had beaten back the attackers. They set up additional security posts around the centre, which is located high in the mountains, and, as the local observers confirmed, apparently did not see the second wave of attackers coming and were surprised by it. (That there was a surprise effect is surprising in itself, but not unprecedented, as AAN has reported, for example, from Kunduz province – see here.)

The Taleban had pulled together fighters from several districts of Paktia and Khost, as well as from Waziristan on the other side of the Afghan-Pakistani border, local observers told AAN. Waziristan is where most of their bases still are. The comparatively small, closely knit local tribes of Paktia and Khost on the Afghan side have been reluctant to allow them to operate permanently on their territories, and due to the short distances, cross-border raids are effective enough. But there are also areas held by the Taleban inside Afghanistan, for instance, Janikhel’s Kotkai plain, about ten kilometers away from the district centre that has been under Taleban control for several years. According to one local journalist, who did not want to be named for reasons of personal security, the Taleban fighters mainly came from the Haqqani and the Mansur networks, the two traditional Taleban sub-groups in the Afghan southeast (more background on them here).

A member of the provincial council told the German news agency dpa that the fighting has displaced 250 families.

The run-up to the events

It appears the attack was a raid and show-of-force, rather an attempt to seize and hold territory. It reflects a more aggressive approach on the part of the insurgents, particularly in the eastern, mountainous parts of Paktia and Khost, but also in the two provinces’ capitals, Gardez and Khost. (1) For many years, the situation has been relatively static in this mountainous, geographically and tribally fractured region. Most district centres continue to be in government hands, while many areas outside of them are more or less under Taleban control. (As local journalists pointed out to AAN, there is also an economic factor behind the Taleban control of the area, which exports locally gathered pine and walnuts to Pakistan. The Taleban levy taxes on these to generate one important local source of income for their fighters.) This has changed slowly over a number of years with a growing number of significant incidents.

On 20 May 2017, there was an assault by three attackers, one of them being a suicide bomber, on a bank branch office in Gardez, the Paktia’s provincial capital. This caused the death of three people and injured 30 more. Almost simultaneously, a suicide bomber with a very strong explosive device hit a convoy of the Khost Protection Force (KPF) – a local US-run private militia that is not part of the regular government forces – that had stopped in Khost city for shopping. The attack killed 18 people and was claimed by the Taleban. After the withdrawal of most US forces from the region and the closure of a number of their forward bases, the 4-6,000 strong KPF is the Taleban’s main local adversary. They have been effective in pushing back the Haqqani network’s influence in the three Dzadran districts of Paktia (Waza Dzadran, Shwak and Gerda Tserai). (2) This was followed on 18 June 2017 by a coordinated attack on the police headquarters in Gardez. This reduced much of the compound to rubble and killed at least nine people. Gardez, and its outskirts, has been the scene of string of smaller attacks, such as assassinations, often with the use of magnetic bombs. The latest of these incidents happened on 2 August 2017 against a vehicle of a local intelligence official killing two people.

There was also new fighting in Dand-e Pattan in June and Dzadzi Aryub in July 2017, two border districts that, for many years, were known as staunchly pro-government and safe areas, but where conditions have deteriorated over the past years. Taleban activity has also been registered closer to Gardez, as fresh AFP photos of armed insurgents in Ahmad Aba district show (see one here). This increased presence has been met by frequent drone and other air strikes, for example, on 8 July 2017 in Mamozai, Zurmat district, also close to Gardez and a traditional Taleban stronghold (see this news article as well as 2016 AAN reporting about that area) and in Waza Dzadran on 1 August 2017.

The surprise factor of the attack on Janikhel is astonishing because its district centre has fallen to the Taleban at least once before, almost a year ago, on 27 August 2016 after a siege of almost two weeks. People in Baghlan province had then protested (see here) and demanded that the government send additional forces to rescue the besieged soldiers, who were mainly from their province. After the rescue, the district fell to the Taleban.

The Taleban left after ten days, pushed out by air attacks, but torched the district governor’s office building, the houses of government employees and local policemen, as well as other administrational buildings as they retreated (read here). At the time of this latest Taleban attack, the buildings were almost reconstructed, but then destroyed again, as a demonstration of the incapacity of the government to defend the place.

Furthermore, Janikhel has had a pattern of regular Taleban attacks going back in time to at least as early 2007. (3) The Taleban claimed to have captured the district centre first in late 2008. In a 2009 pre-election assessment, UNAMA counted the district as one of three “high risk districts” in Paktia, together with Zurmat and Gerda Tserai, the home village of the Haqqani family. It is, incidentally, since 2001 the only district centre in Paktia that was ever captured by the Taleban, and one of only a few in Loya Paktia (all the others are in Paktika, such as Omna that was taken in September 2016, and Wurmamay that was held for around two weeks in October 2016). [Corrected 8 August 2017: Three districts in Paktika, Naka, Dila and Omna, are the only districts in the region fully, ie including the district centre, controlled by the Taleban.]

Why now, and why Janikhel?

Janikhel, although small and not very populous (official statistics estimate around 100,000 inhabitants), is of strategic importance for the region of eastern Paktia and Khost. The first reason is that the second-largest road connecting the two provincial centres, which the local population mainly uses, runs through the district. (There is also a more direct main road, further to the south.) Second, it is the junction of a number of smaller roads – and insurgent routes, including the one over the Reshpegi Pass – leading to other hotspots in the region, for example, to Waza Dzadran (Paktia), which is controlled by a local rival of the Haqqanis, and Sabari (Khost) districts. Sabari, with its old, madrassa-based ideological Hezb-e Islami and later Taleban networks (the former often under the latter’s command) is another geographical origin of the insurgency in Loya Paktia, which started with the anti-Soviet resistance in the 1980s.

Even more importantly, Janikhel connects – through mountain passes in the border district of Dand-e Pattan – the Haqqani network’s logistic bases over the border in Parachinar (4) with the areas on the Afghan side of the border that are already widely under Taleban control (Dand-e Patan and Janikhel in Paktia; Sabari, Musakhel and Qalandar; the latter three being in Khost province) with other areas further inland, where the Taleban have lesser influence, but is showing an increased activity, such as Ahmad Aba and Sayyed Karam districts near Gardez and further on to Logar and Kabul. Janikhel may also have been chosen for the July raid because its centre sits on a forested mountain range (with even higher mountain tops around it) that is more difficult to defend and further out of reach of the KPF, than the other three districts.

Government neglect, tribal fragmentation…

Local politicians claim that they had seen the attack coming. Mujib Rahman Chamkani, a member of parliament from Paktia province, told AAN that he and his fellow MPs from the province had been telling the government to block the flow of the Taleban from the adjacent districts, which he said had destabilised Janikhel for the last five years, but no action had been taken. The last time he raised the issue, he said, was two weeks before the district fell. He said that they visited “all four security branches: the National Security Council (NSC), Ministry of Defence, National Directorate of Security (NDS) and the Ministry of Interior.” But local intelligence operatives, he claimed, told the central government that their information was incorrect. Chamkani added: “We got a call from the president’s office, who told us a day after our meeting that the situation in Janikhel was normal and the district was not in danger of falling to Taleban.”

According to Chamkani, there are Afghan National Army (ANA) soldiers, Afghanistan National Civil Order Police (ANCOP), Afghan National Police (ANP) and Afghan Local Police (ALP) forces deployed to this district. Altogether, he estimated this to total some 300 to 500 men. (Provincial spokesman Hasrat told AAN he could not disclose the number of the deployed forces.) Chamkani, local residents and observers told AAN that the Taleban had clearly outnumbered the government forces.

Chamkani further told AAN that ALP members from his home district (also called Chamkani) told him that they had wanted to come to the rescue of Janikhel, but ran out of fuel half-way there. The local officials, he added, did not give the ALP “enough food, ammunition and fuel for the vehicles or motorbikes.” The governor spokesman rejected these claims as baseless. Other observers also spoke of poor coordination between the various regular and irregular pro-government forces in the area.

As AAN has reported previously from other parts of Afghanistan, what is seen locally as government neglect often leads to theories about possible collusion between government officials and the insurgents. As Chamkani put it: “This [the lack of supplies and coordination] makes one doubt the security officials, [and suspect] that they might have a cooperation with the Taleban or may not have the serious intention to prevent the Taleban from attacking this district.”

However, this is only the latest manifestation of the area’s strained relations with the central government, the origins of which reach back to the first years after the overthrow of the Taleban regime by the US-led 2001 military intervention. This is particularly true for the Pashtun tribe of the Mangal that constitutes almost 100 per cent of the population of Janikhel, Musakhel, Qalandar and Lajja Mangal districts, as well as large parts of Dand-e Pattan, Chamkani and Mirzaka. In the early years, the Mangal and most other tribes of Loya Paktia professed an open pro-government position. The Mangal were particularly well-organised under a central tribal council that resided in Janikhel centre. In 2003, the council decided unilaterally to stop growing poppy (which was not a major, but a visible crop, locally) in response to the anti-narcotics policies adopted by the donors and the new Afghan central government, and in exchange demanded development projects for their area. The decision was committed in writing to the UN mission in Afghanistan. However, neither donors, nor the central government of then President Hamed Karzai, responded to this initiative; the UK – as lead nation for the international community’s anti-narcotics drive – concentrated its funding almost entirely on Nangrahar, which then was a larger growing area.

Another political decision of the Mangal Central Shura very likely contributed to the tribe’s neglect by the Afghan government. During the 2003 ‘constitutional consultation’ in the run-up to the Constitutional Loya Jirga over the turn of 2003 to 2004, the tribe unanimously opted for a restoration of the Afghan monarchy; a decision that clearly angered Karzai. The Mangal council also complained that they were ‘consulted’ about a constitution, the draft of which the government refused to publish.

The failure of the Mangal council to attract projects and funds led to its delegitimisation within the tribe and to the fragmentation of the Mangal tribal leadership in general (and, also, to the resumption of poppy production). By 2009, there were around a dozen Mangal shuras each claiming to represent the entire tribe. Local observers also point to the frequent changes of the Paktia provincial governor (two alone since November 2016), leading to discontinuity and ever-changing realignments and intrigues among the provincial and district administrations and the MPs from the province.

Tribal fragmentation, Taleban gains…

Janikhel district, and the wider Mangal-populated areas of Paktia and Khost illustrate how weak administration, neglect by the central government (even if partly only in local perception) and disintegration of the tribal structure turned an area with a pro-government population into a recruiting ground for the local Taleban, particularly the Haqqani network. According to observers, the Haqqani network has seen an influx of young Mangal men in recent years, motivated largely by joblessness and lack of perspectives. The fact that no Mangal has risen up to the Haqqani network’s leadership, and that the network continues to be dominated by the clan that has given it its name (from the Mezai subtribe of the Dzadran), has not prevented this trend.

The temporary fall of Janikhel illustrates how vulnerable many district centres in Loya Paktia are, even though the Taleban rarely make any serious attempts to capture them. The attack, though ultimately repelled, was a successful show-of-force that had both propaganda (the video that was released) and material value (the military hardware that was captured). It also showed that the Taleban have the initiative and are able to force the government into a reactionary mode. On the other hand, it also illustrates that the insurgents are still not strong enough to keep and hold a district centre in this part of Loya Paktia.

For the time being, the fighting in Janikhel seems to have been more about control over the insurgency supply routes, than over the actual district centre itself. However, it does indicate a more aggressive approach and comes on the back of a slow spread of territorial control of the Haqqani network in eastern Paktia and Khost. This spreading control has been fostered by the slow, long-term fragmentation of institutions of tribal leadership that had earlier guaranteed a considerable degree of tribal unity and, at least a tacit support for the central government. This might be the most concerning development in the region, as it might be irreversible.

 

(1) Together with Paktika, further south, Paktia and Khost used to be one province until the 1970s (called Paktia); Khost and Paktika were established as separate provinces under President Daud (1973-78). Therefore, to this day, these three provinces are often referred to as Loya (Greater) Paktia (or P2K in NATO language). Provincial borders between them do not count for much with the local population, nor the insurgents, particularly for those tribes now spread over several provinces. As a result of the breakup of the original province, several tribes were split, including the Dzadran (to which the Haqqani family belongs; they now live in three districts each in all three provinces) and the Mangal (the main population of Janikhel) were split. This spread the central government’s dealings with them over three different provincial administrations, thus making it more difficult.

(2) The KPF is, according to different sources, between 4,000 and 6,000 strong and run by the CIA and operates across the provincial boundaries of Loya Paktia. In late 2015, the Washington Post, in an investigative report described severe human rights violations committed by the force (read here).

(3) The earliest attack was reported by Pajhwok News Agency on 3 April 2007 (not online; in the author’s archive).

(4) According to independent Pakistani media reports (see, for example, here), the Haqqani network leadership relocated to Parachinar before the 2014 Pakistani anti-Taleban military operations. Jalaluddin Haqqani, the founder of the Haqqani network (the remnant of the 1980s Loya Paktia network of the Hezb-e Islami/Khales mujahedin party), is known for his long-standing relationship with the Pakistani intelligence service ISI (more AAN background here).