Middle East

The following by Efraim Inbar is reposted here with the permission of the Middle East Form:
How Dangerous is ISIS to Israel?by Efraim Inbar
BESA Center Perspectives
September 7, 2015http://www.meforum.org/5473/israel-isis


Many Arabs are concerned less by the nature of ISIS atrocities than by the fact that they aren't committed primarily against Israelis.ISIS, a radical Islamist group, has killed thousands of people since it declared an Islamic caliphate in June 2014, with the city of Raqqa as its de facto capital. It captured tremendous international attention by swiftly conquering large swaths of land and by releasing gruesome pictures of beheadings and other means of executions. In Israel, concern is increasing as ISIS nears Israeli borders.
Yet, several analyses of the threat ISIS poses to Israel seem to be unnecessarily alarmist. ISIS is primarily successful where there is a political void. Although the offensives in Syria and Iraq showed the Islamic State's tactical capabilities, they were directed against failed states with weakened militaries. When and where ISIS has met well organized opposition by non-state entities, such as that posed by Kurdish militias, the group's performance has been less convincing.

The attack on an Egyptian town in the Sinai Peninsula conducted by the local ISIS branch with several hundred fighters – an item well covered in the Israeli media – is not an exception to this assessment. ISIS has shown tactical ability in employing large numbers of militiamen in an area where, for several years, the Egyptian army has encountered problems in enforcing state sovereignty.
ISIS does not yet pose a serious strategic challenge to Israel.Nevertheless, the Egyptian army eventually succeeded in repelling the attack and in killing hundreds of attackers. A determined Egyptian regime put up a good fight against the terrorists in Sinai. Despite the fact that the Egyptian army is not well-trained in scenarios posed by groups like ISIS, and despite the army's preoccupation with the delta region (the threat in Sinai is considered peripheral), the Egyptian army is still likely to be successful in containing the ISIS challenge.
The difference between a real army and the forces in Syria and Iraq that ISIS has encountered should be recognized. Generally, non-state actors are less dangerous than states. Only states can develop nuclear weapons. Non-state actors usually do not possess airplanes, heavy artillery and tanks that can cause great damage. Since they are Iranian proxies, Hizballah and Hamas are not an exception to this rule because they have been endowed with destructive capabilities, such as missiles, by a state. Moreover, they have secured almost exclusive control over a piece of territory.
Similarly, the success of ISIS is partly the result of the role played by Turkey. Ankara allows overseas volunteers to flock to ISIS training camps in Iraq. The same Turkish route is used by foreign experts that operate the oil infrastructure captured by ISIS. It is Turkish territory that is used to resupply ISIS and to treat its wounded. It is money from Gulf States that subsidizes ISIS activities. Even the recent Turkish formal agreement to join the coalition against ISIS does not change much. Ankara's primary targets are the Kurds and evidence shows that ISIS still receives Turkish limited support.
This means that it is misplaced to view ISIS as posing an independent serious strategic challenge. It is true that ISIS has ignited immense passion among many young and frustrated Muslims all over the world and the Caliphate idea has a great appeal among the believers, but the relevant question is: What can ISIS do without outside support? ISIS on its own is capable of only limited damage. The magnitude of the threat has been greatly exaggerated, while the states that help it need to be treated adequately.
The Obama administration is using the grand threat of ISIS to legitimize Iran as a 'responsible' actor.The American administration has good reasons to inflate the threat from ISIS. It is using the grand threat of ISIS to legitimize Iran as a "responsible" actor (that will, supposedly, fight ISIS) in Middle East affairs. This has been part of the Obama administration's rationale for its nuclear deal with Iran.
ISIS might eventually carve an area of control along Israel's borders, particularly on the Golan where the Syrian state is disintegrating. In a worst case analysis, Syria could yet become another "Hamastan." But it is important to note that Israel has been successful in containing Hamas in Gaza. In fact, Israel has refrained from a more muscular response to Hamas only because it has an interest in perpetuating the divide between the Hamas in Gaza and the PA in the West Bank. Such restraint would not apply to a future ISIS entity. Indeed, due to less global support for ISIS than for Gazans, Israel's freedom of action against ISIS is obviously much greater.
Jordan, an important buffer state and strategic partner of Israel, also has the military capability to withstand an ISIS onslaught. Its security services probably can also manage for the time being the radical Islamist threat from within.
Suggestions that ISIS may constitute a bigger threat to Israel than Iran are ridiculous. The Israeli army and the ISIS militia are in different leagues. As long as ISIS behaves in a most unconventional bestial way, many in the world will be happy to see Israel doing the dirty work on their behalf, dealing ISIS blow after blow, if the opportunity and necessity arises.
Efraim Inbar, a professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan University, is the director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.

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Note: I posted this last week with the embed from Fox News -- it didn't work, so I am posting it again with the embed from You Tube.

If this is an illustration of Kerry's grasp of the facts, it is no wonder we came out on the short end of the stick.

The debunking of Kerry's "rhetorical flourishes" comes at the 1:10 of this video:



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From Arlene Kushner:
July 2, 2015
Facing Down ViolenceAs has become my practice of late, I’m going to start with a good news item, saving the somber stuff for later.  Here we have a brief video that should put a smile on your face and a touch of hope in your heart:

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הרפורמציה הפרוטסטנטית החלה במאה ה-16 ונמשכה גם למאה ה-17.היא החלה כמחאה ואי קבלה של הכנסיה הקתולית ומרותה שכן רבים הרגישו כי האליטה השלטת אופיינה בשחיתות וריקבון. המנהיג הבולט ביותר של הרפורמה הזו היה הכומר מרטין לותר שיזכר לדורות כפורץ דרך אמיץ. בתקופה ההיא, היו המון נוצרים שהאמינו באדיקות בדתם, אך לא הסכימו לשחיתות ולטרור שהושלט ע״י הכנסייה הקתולית (מסעות הצלב והאינקוויזיציה בין היתר). כך החל תהליך של שינוי שגרר גם תגובת נגד מצד הזרם הקתולי. הזרם הקתולי הבין שאם לא תהיה רפורמה גם שם, הם יאבדו את כל המאמינים שלהם לטובת הפרוטסטנטיים.ככה התמתנה הדת הנוצרית והפכה סובלנית יותר כפי שאנחנו מכירים אותה היום.בדיוק את אותו התהליך גם האסלאם צריך לעבור.כשנתקלים במישהי מדהימה כמו שרה זועבי, זה מחזק את האמונה שהתהליך הזה בוודאות יקרה.השינוי יכול להגיע רק בזכות אנשים אמיצים כמוה, כמו הבן שלה וכמו רבים שאוהבים את דתם אבל סולדים מהשחיתות והטרור שהשתלטה עלייה.מי שסובל בעיקר היום מהטרור המוסלמי, הם המוסלמים עצמם. במזרח התיכון הם סובלים ממשטרים טוטאליטריים שמענים את עמם ואף מוציאים להורג ללא משפטבמדינות ערב מתחילה להתעורר איסלאמופוביה שפוגעת גם במוסלמים שלווים.המוסלמים הם הראשונים שאמורים לצאת נגד האיסלאם הקיצוני.לגבי המציאות הישראלית,הגאולה לא תבוא מארגונים קיצוניים שרצים לפרלמנטים אירופאיים בשביל להציג מצגי שווא ולהתחנף ע״י הלשנה מסולפת על מנת להכריח את עמם לפעולות לא הגיוניות על פי דעת הרוב. הגאולה גם לא תבוא מגזענים חשוכים שחושבים שהפתרון הוא סילוק כל מי שלא חושב כמוהם או נמנה ביו בני דתם המונעים משנאה בוערת. הגאולה תבוא אך ורק מאנשים אמיצים ופורצי דרך כאלו שהדבר המהותי שמניע אותם היא גאווה ואהבה לכל הזהויות שלהם.הדו קיום היפה הזה ששרה זועבי מציגה בצורה מושלמת, לא אומר לוותר על הזהות שלך. יש פה עיקרון של שפע. שרה זועבי מצליחה להעביר מסר חד וברור של אהבה וגאווה ללאום שלה עם היכולת לקבל את האחר, להכיל אותו ולמזג בין התרבויות בלי לגרוע מאף אחת מהן.היא ערבייה מוסלמית בהוויתה ויחד עם זאת ישראלית ציונית גאה. אין פה שום סתירה בין הזהויות. יש פה מיזוג מרהיב של שתי תרבויות יפות והבסיס הוא אהבה לשתיהן.העולם המערבי בכלל והחברה הישראלית בפרט צריכה ללמוד לאזן בין חמלה לכוח.אנחנו חייבים מצד אחד לאמץ לחיקינו את האנשים המדהימים האלו ולעזור להם להתמודד עם הקשיים הנוראיים שהם עוברים בשל היותם פורצי דרךומהצד השני אנחנו חייבים להראות אפס סובלנות לטרור ותומכיו.חלק מהעיקרון של אפס סובלנות לטרור בין היתר כולל לא למסור שטחים לטרור ולא לאפשר לו להשליט את המשטרים האפלים והמדכאים שלהם שם. ישראל חייבת לשמור על גבולותיה הרמטיים ולחנך את האזרחים בגבולות האלו מהי אהבת חינם. אין לי ספק שהשינוי הזה יקרה. אי אפשר לדעת כמה זמן זה יקח, אבל זה בוודאות יקרה וזה יקרה הודות לאנשים כאלו.Sara ZoabiMuhammad Zoabi
Posted by Miri Lavi on Wednesday, June 24, 2015
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We had better hold fast to that hope, because there’s a whole lot that is very ugly facing us at the same time.  In recent weeks, we have seen an increase in the number of attacks in Judea and Samaria, and Jerusalem:


[] Early last week, outside the Damascus Gate of the Old City of Jerusalem, a terrorist critically stabbed a border police officer in the neck and chest.  The officer, in spite of his wounds, managed to shoot the terrorist before collapsing.
Credit: flikr

[] Last Saturday night, terrorists shot at a civilian ambulance traveling on a road adjacent to Beit El, in Samaria.  Bullets hit the vehicle, but thank Heaven no one was injured.

[] Then Monday, a woman soldier at a checkpoint outside of Rachel’s Tomb, which is near Bethlehem in Judea, was stabbed in the neck several times by a knife-wielding female terrorist.  The soldier (shown below with the prime minister and minister of defense) was seriously wounded but has stabilized.Credit: GPO

The terrorist was found to be carrying two knives in addition to the one she used.  She told the Shin Bet that she had come to that checkpoint to kill a soldier.

[] This was followed by another incident Monday night, when terrorists fired upon a car near Shvut Rachel, in the Binyamin area of Samaria.  Four people were wounded, one critically.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/197464#.VZU005sVjIV

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The young man who was critically injured in the Shvut Rachel attack, Malachi Rosenfeld, 26, of Kochav Hashachar, succumbed to his wounds the following day.  At his funeral,  yesterday, his father sang a heart-rending song of faith:

"Even in the most concealed​​ of concealed​​ moments, certainly​ G-d, blessed be He`1, is also found there."Even behind the most difficult things that happen to you, He (still) stands, He stands - and we will stand, we will stand with G-d."Once again, I am awed by the strength of a grieving parent.  The video:


http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/197557#.VZVv_JsVjIV~~~~~~~~~~
And what is thought to be the reason for this increase in violence?

Ramadan.

That is, the Islamic holy month that we are in the midst of right now.  Fasting is required from sunup to sundown. This is supposed to be a time for spirituality and introspection, traditionally marking the receiving of the Koran by Muhammad.

However, Ramadan is typically accompanied by increased violence (called Ramadan rage), including Muslim on Muslim violence and a spike in crimes.  There are different explanations I’ve encountered, but the most frequent one is that the day-time fasting repeated day after day takes a toll on the body and makes people respond more irritably.

My thought: there is irritable and then there is violent.  Physical stress leads to violence in this context, it seems to me, because we are talking about an essentially violent culture.

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And what does Israel institute before the beginning of Ramadan?  “Good will gestures,” such as removing checkpoints to make it easier for people to get the Temple Mount for prayers.  There was even a decision to allow buses from Ramallah and Bethlehem to take people straight to the Old City.

Isn’t that nice of us?

Are we crazy?

Because of rockets launched from Gaza recently, a decision to allow 500 Arabs from Gaza to travel to the Temple Mount over Ramadan was revoked.

Now Minister Naftali Bennett is calling on Netanyahu to "cancel the exemptions granted to the Palestinians for Ramadan as they have become life threatening...Bayit Yehudi will not ignore the murder of Jews.”

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4675282,00.html

I totally concur with him here.  And so do a majority of Israelis, according to a recent poll:  51% want to remove leniencies for Palestinian Arabs with regard to their freedom of movement.

http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Poll-Majority-wants-to-remove-leniencies-on-Palestinians-407870

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I find that members of Habayit Hayehudi – Bennett and others - most frequently advance positions that project clarity regarding our need to protect ourselves.

Minister Uri Ariel called on the prime minister to take more stringent action in the face of terror: “The terrorist organizations must receive the message that the blood of Israeli citizens, especially residents of Judea and Samaria, cannot be shed with impunity.”

And MK Bezalel Smotrich declared, “Too many steps have been taken to improve the lives of the Palestinian population at the expense of Israeli citizens.”

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Bayit-Yehudi-threatens-coalition-crisis-over-terror-attack-407719

And yet there is something else Bennett said that troubles me:

He called for government approval "for construction in Judea and Samaria and strengthening of the settlements.”

Clearly, I am not opposed to construction in Judea and Samaria.  But this should be advanced as a matter of right, and not presented after terror attacks as a sort of retribution.  Building as a punishment for terror gives the wrong message.

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Egypt yesterday endured an enormous blow when an affiliate of ISIS, located in the northern Sinai, attacked in at least 15 different locations simultaneously, killing some 100 people, including 50 security personnel.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Egyptian-security-sources-At-least-30-killed-in-Sinai-terror-attacks-407664

Egypt’s battle is hardly over yet, and what goes on in the Sinai impinges directly on Israel: ISIS is at our door.  We are solidly with Egypt in this fight, and have given permission for Egyptian forces in excess of what is permitted by treaty to enter the Sinai.

There are indications that radical forces in Gaza are cooperating with ISIS, and there are weighty ramifications in this regard as well.

The Israeli borders with the Sinai and Gaza have been closed.

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Hamas is known to be attempting to rebuild its strength in Judea and Samaria, after it was severely weakened by the IDF last summer.  In recent comments, Defense Minister Ya’alon confirmed this fact, saying that Hamas had outside support, including from Iran:
"There's Iranian funding. [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has declared that terrorists in Judea and Samaria must be funded and armed."http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=26605

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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.  
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Technorati Tag: Israel and Gaza and Hamas and Egypt.

The following by Raymond Ibrahim is reposted here with the permission of the Middle East Forum:
Where Is the Pope's Encyclical on Christian Persecution?by Raymond Ibrahim
FrontPage Magazine
June 25, 2015http://www.meforum.org/5351/pope-christian-persecution

Pope Francis recently released a new encyclical. Portions of it deal with environmentalism, global warming, and climate change. Naturally, this has prompted controversy.

It's noteworthy that Francis didn't merely make a passing comment on global warming during this or that sermon, but that he issued a papal encyclical on the matter. Encyclicals are much more formal and significant than remarks made during mass. They are letters written by a pope and sent to bishops all around the world. In turn, the bishops are meant to disseminate the encyclical's ideas to all the priests and churches in their jurisdiction, so that the pope's teaching reaches every church-attending Catholic.

All this leads to the following question: Where is Pope Francis' encyclical concerning the rampant persecution that Christians—including many Catholics—are experiencing around the world, the Islamic world in particular?
To be sure, the pope has acknowledged it. On April 21, during mass held at Casa Santa Marta, Francis said that today's church is a "church of martyrs." He even referenced several of the recent attacks on Christians by Muslims (without of course mentioning the latter's religious identity). Said Pope Francis:In these days how many Stephens [early Christian martyred in Book of Acts] there are in the world! Let us think of our brothers whose throats were slit on the beach in Libya [by the Islamic State]; let's think of the young boy who was burnt alive by his [Pakistani Muslim] companions because he was a Christian; let us think of those migrants thrown from their boat into the open sea by other [African Muslim] migrants because they were Christians; let us think – just the day before yesterday – of those Ethiopians assassinated because they were Christians... and ofmany others. Many others of whom we do not even know and who are suffering in jails because they are Christians... The Church today is a Church of martyrs: they suffer, they give their lives and we receive the blessing of God for their witness.The pope is acquainted with the reality of Christian persecution around the world. So why isn't he issuing an encyclical about it? Such an encyclical would be very useful.
The pope should instruct bishops to acknowledge the truth about Christian persecution worldwide.The pope could instruct bishops to acknowledge the truth about Christian persecution and to have this news spread to every Catholic church. Perhaps a weekly prayer for the persecuted church could be institutionalized—keeping the plight of those hapless Christians in the spotlight, so Western Catholics and others always remember them, talk about them, and, perhaps most importantly, understand why they are being persecuted.
Once enough people are familiar with the reality of Christian persecution, they could influence U.S. policymakers—for starters, to drop those policies that directly exacerbate the sufferings of Christian minorities in the Middle East.
Whatever the effects of such an encyclical—and one can only surmise positive ones—at the very least, the pope would be addressing a topic entrusted to his care and requiring his attention.
As recently as 1958, Pope Pius XII issued an encyclical that addressed the persecution of Christians. A portion follows:We are aware—to the great sorrow of Our fatherly heart—that the Catholic Church, in both its Latin and Oriental rites, is beset in many lands by such persecutions that the clergy and faithful ... are confronted with this dilemma: to give up public profession and propagation of their faith, or to suffer penalties, even very serious ones. ...
Missionaries who have left their homes and dear native lands and suffered many serious discomforts in order to bring the light and the strength of the gospel to others, have been driven from many regions as menaces and evil-doers.Note that Pius does not mention the burning and bombing of churches, or the abduction, rape, enslavement, and slaughter of Christians. The reason is that Christians living outside the West in 1958 rarely experienced such persecution. In other words, today's global persecution of Christians is exponentially worse than in 1958. Pius complained about how Christianity was being contained, not allowed to spread and win over converts.

Global persecution of Christians is exponentially worse today than in 1958.Today, indigenous Christians who've been in the Middle East before Islam was conceived are being slaughtered, their churches burned to the ground, their women and children, enslaved, raped, and forced to convert. "ISIS" is the tip of the iceberg.
Even in the West, statistics indicate that Islam is set to supersede Christianity, at least in numbers.Yet there is no encyclical from Pope Francis on any of this. Instead, Francis deems it more fit to issue a proclamation addressing the environment and climate change.
If the pope doesn't think this is a priority issue, what can be expected from secular politicians in the West?Whatever position one holds concerning these topics, it is telling that the pope—the one man in the world best placed and most expected to speak up for millions of persecuted Christians around the world—is more interested in speaking up for "the world" itself.

Bear in mind, the Christian worldview is not about "saving the earth"—"where moth and rust do corrupt, and where thieves break through and steal"—but in saving souls, both in the now and hereafter. The Lord questioned Saul of Tarsus as to why he was persecuting his flock, not about the environment.
Yet here we are: if even the Catholic pope does not deem the ongoing, systematic assault on Christianity and Christians a priority issue in need of its own encyclical, what can be expected from the average secular/atheistic politician in the West?
The answer is before us: brutal persecution and slaughter of Christians on the one hand, and absolute indifference from the West on the other.
Raymond Ibrahim is a Shillman Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center and a Judith Friedman Rosen Fellow at the Middle East Forum. He is the author of Crucified Again: Exposing Islam's New War on Christians (2013) and The Al Qaeda Reader (2007). 
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From Arlene Kushner:
June 29, 2015

The Horrors and the Hope


Never do I relinquish hope, my friends.  Not even in the midst of growing horrors.  And so I begin here with something we did right: the way we handled the “threat” of the “Freedom Flotilla.”

The flotilla, carrying a total of 47 passengers, was comprised of four boats, lead by the largest – the Swedish-registered “Marianne of Gothenburg,” with some 20 passengers aboard.  When all diplomatic efforts to re-route the flotilla failed, a political decision was made to stop it at sea.  During the night last night, three Israeli navy boats approached the “Marianne” in international waters – some 100 nautical miles from shore - and in accordance with international law, repeatedly advised the lead boat to change course.  When there was no compliance, the “Marianne” was surrounded; Navy commandos from Shayetet 13, the special forces unit of the Israeli Navy, boarded, seizing control of the boat without violence or incident. 

The other three boats in the flotilla turned back.  The “Marianne” will be brought to the port in Ashdod. After its crew and passengers are questioned, they will likely be deported via Ben Gurion Airport.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-navy-boards-ship-headed-for-gaza-no-injuries-reported/


Credit: YouTube Screenshot

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The PR emanating from the pro-Palestinian Arab passengers and news sources sympathetic to them strikes me as parody.  One passenger referred to the Israeli navy as “pirates.” and one news source explained that the “Marianne” was on a humanitarian voyage - carrying solar panels because “there is no electricity in the Gaza Strip.”  Indeed there is electricity: and Israel supplies 70% of it!  The pity is that there are some who believe this garbage.

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Last night, a letter to the passengers of the “Marianne” from Prime Minister Netanyahu was released (emphasis added):

“Welcome to Israel.


“You seem to have gotten lost.  Perhaps you meant to sail to a place not far from here – Syria where Assad’s army is slaughtering its people every day, and is supported by the murderous Iranian regime.

“Here in Israel we face a reality in which terrorist organizations like Hamas try to kill innocent civilians. We defend our citizens against these attempts in accordance with international law.

“Despite this, Israel transports goods and humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip – up to 800 trucks a day. In the past year we enabled the entry of over 1.6 million tons of products, an average of one ton per person in the Gaza Strip. By the way, these supplies are equivalent to 500,000 boats like the one you came in on today...

“However, we will not allow the terrorist organizations to transfer weapons into the Gaza Strip by sea.  Only one year ago, we thwarted an attempt to smuggle hundreds of weapons into the Gaza Strip by ship. These weapons were meant to target innocent Israeli civilians.

“There is no siege on the Gaza Strip, and you are welcome to transfer any humanitarian supplies for the Gaza Strip through Israel.

“Barring the entrance of boats and ships into the Gaza Strip is in accordance with international law, and was even backed by a committee commissioned by the United Nations Secretary General.

“If you were truly concerned about human rights, you would not be sailing in support of a terrorist regime which summarily executes citizens in the Gaza Strip, and uses children as human shields.”
http://www.pmo.gov.il/English/MediaCenter/Spokesman/Pages/spokeYam290615.aspx

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I thought this would be a good place to share the following fascinating piece of information, as well (emphasis added):

“Shop owners in the West Bank lament that it is impossible to boycott Israel, Jordan-basedAlbawaba news reported on Thursday.

“According to the report, Palestinian political party Al-Mubadra Al-Watniya, or the Palestinian National Initiative, has launched a campaign throughout Ramallah urging consumers to boycott Israeli products, as part of the larger international boycott, divestment and sanctions movement against Israel. Signs throughout Ramallah call on Palestinians to ‘boycott Israeli goods’ and to refuse to ‘pay for the bullets that kill our children.’

“But it appears locals are having difficulty accomplishing just that because of certain specialty goods that come from Israel. ‘Our gluten-free bread and lactose-free milk come from Israel,’ one Palestinian businessman said, according to the report.

“According to the report, most small grocers in Ramallah continue to sell Israeli goods, despite the active boycott movement.

“Pharmacist Samer Toubassi told Albawaba, ‘We’re with the boycott, but for many products we have no alternatives,’ adding that 40 to 50 percent of his medications come from Israel...

“’Palestinians do not have the technology to produce medicine that is used to treat cancer, problems with the immune system, or diabetes, for instance,’ said Toubassi.

“One Palestinian told the Jordanian paper that he would not boycott ‘the settlements’ — Jewish communities built on lands conquered by Israel in the defensive 1967 Six-Day War — because the settlements provide many Palestinians with work.

“’I don’t believe in boycotting. If we boycott settlement products, what about the Palestinians who work in the settlements?’ said Ramallah resident Mahmoud Jbbarin.
http://www.algemeiner.com/2015/06/26/palestinians-in-west-bank-its-impossible-to-boycott-israel/#How about that?

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Then I want to return to the issue of the Druze in Syria, who were said to be threatened by Islamist rebels fighting Assad.  Recently Israeli Druze demonstrated in large numbers, and appealed to the Israeli government to act to save their cousins across the border, who presumably were facing potential genocide because of their support for Assad. 

Credit: AP/Ariel Schalit

Many here, sensitive to the issues of genocide, declared in support of acting to helping the Syrian Druze.  There was discussion of the establishment of a “safe zone” on the Syrian side of the Golan, for example.But the story has grown ever more complex since then, taking on different shadings every day or two. 

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As my readers may remember, Druze in the Israeli Golan attacked an IDF ambulance that was bringing two Syrians to a hospital for care – one Syrian died and the other was left in critical condition.  This was a situation that was by all measures unacceptable and had the effect of shifting attitudes here in Israel.  Civilians in Israel (many but not all Israeli citizens) cannot attack an IDF ambulance under any circumstances, or otherwise interfere with an IDF mission. 

The Druze in the Golan were charging that the Syrians who were attacked were rebels belonging to groups that threatened the Syrian Druze.  Israeli officials said that we help Syrian individuals – presumably civilians, who have been injured in cross-fighting – and that Israel does not directly support the Nusra Front.  How it is determined who is a civilian was not made clear. 

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All this by way of background.  Five days ago, Brig- Gen. (res.) Imad Fares, a Druze IDF officer who served in high positions, went public with a statement, saying that the Israeli defense establishment cannot and should not intervene in Syria (emphasis added):

“If we can be mature and accept this point, it will be easier for us to understand the complicated nature of the situation.

“It is not a correct or realistic request, and I think that intervention must be coordinated with the side receiving the support, and therefore intervention with an Israeli stamp of approval is unacceptable, will not happen, and there is no mutual interest, making it useless to think about.

“...the Druse in Syria also won’t want Israel to intervene on their behalf. The Syrian Druse, let’s be honest, identify with the Assad regime. Their continued survival is also dependent on other alliances which won’t necessarily be helped by joining with Israel.”
http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Former-Senior-army-official-The-IDF-cannot-intervene-in-Syrias-war-406914

Quite a departure from the original statements we were hearing, and makes a great deal of sense. I had reported on the analysis of one of my contacts, who had said that all Israel might do is send weapons to the Syrian Druze so that they can better defend themselves.  The weapons should go through Jordan, he told me: This would be so that they were not readily identified as having come from Israel.  And this dovetails with what Fares said.

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Now there is yet another take on the situation, which is what prompted me to revisit it (emphasis added):“Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon said Monday that Israel has been providing aid to Syrian rebels, thus keeping the Druze in Syria out of immediate danger. Israeli officials have previously balked at confirming on the record that the country has been helping forces that are fighting to overthrow Syrian President Bashar Assad. 

“During a briefing with Israel’s diplomatic correspondents at the IDF’s headquarters in Tel Aviv, Ya’alon said that Israel’s ongoing humanitarian assistance to Syrian rebel fighters, a source of growing conflict between Israel and its own Druze population, safeguards the minority population in Syria.

“’We’ve assisted them under two conditions,’ Ya’alon said of the Israeli medical aid to the Syrian rebels, some of whom are presumably fighting with al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra Front to topple Syrian President Bashar Assad. ‘That they don’t get too close to the border, and that they don’t touch the Druze.’”http://www.timesofisrael.com/yaalon-syrian-rebels-keeping-druze-safe-in-exchange-for-israeli-aid/

Not the same story we started with...

It is no secret that the Israeli government tends to see the radicals such as Nusra Front as the lesser of the evils in Syria (a lesser evil, not as dangerous, but this does not mean an ally), with the first goal being to see Assad – the puppet of Iran - taken down.

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The horrors I refer to in my subject line?  Very real and growing daily.

There has been a series of terrorist killings in a host of different venues over the last few days that boggle the mind with their horror and inhumanity.  Perhaps I will return to deal with them in greater detail.  Perhaps not.  The beheading, the drownings, all the rest.  Not sure if it serves purpose to dwell on the details (although threats to France must be mentioned).

What strikes me, again and again, is a perversity so great that it makes it difficult to take a breath: Israel has been charged by the UN with possible war crimes for defending herself in Gaza.  Israeli leaders in turn may be charged with war crimes by the ICC (if Abbas has his way – and this I must return to).  Israel!  When we are surrounded by beheadings, and rapes of six year olds, and all the rest.

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There is incredible unrest and insecurity in the EU, starting with Greece, but not ending there. Along with fiscal instability, there are problems of large numbers of Muslim refugees flooding into Europe. This must be watched carefully.

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And, of course, what I must return to in detail is the perennial subject of the negotiations with Iran.  As matters stand now, the deadline – that’s tomorrow! - will not be met.  Netanyahu declares himself pleased that no deal is likely to be signed, because he knows it would be an awful deal.  It can still be improved, he cautions. But this is a pipe dream, not reality.  Each day, as I see it, the situation is worse, not better.  The negotiators of P5+1 are not going to suddenly discover they have backbones.

The best case scenario that I can envision (I guess also a pipe dream) is that P5+1 tells Iran, we have given you more than enough time and you have not cooperated in good faith.  Negotiations are now declared failed.  This would mean, this should mean, the imposition of the stiffest of sanctions, to bring Iran to its knees, backed by a credible military threat if Iran pursues further military nuclear development. 

I have just read that Dennis Ross, formerly an advisor to Obama on Iran, says it would be reasonable to negotiate for another three to six months.  This is daft.  Obama cannot bear to say the negotiations failed, and so concedes more and more to keep them going.  (Boy, do the Iranians have his number!)  In six months, he’d probably be sending hi-tech advisors into Iran to help them. ~~~~~~~~~~

© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 


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