FT / Brussels Blog

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Jean-Claude Juncker’s white paper on the future of Europe asks what can be done to secure the foundations of a 27-country EU after Britain leaves. In the face of this titanic challenge, the European Commission presents stark political choices to government leaders as they seek a new remedy for the bloc’s many woes.

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Whatever happened to Dutch politics? With two weeks until the election, the image of a tolerant, liberal country has been replaced by one of a grinning Geert Wilders. But away from Mr Wilders’ “STOP ISLAM” posters, signs of the old Netherlands remain.Although his Party for Freedom (PVV) still has a lead in most polls, Mr Wilders is losing ground. Meanwhile, the Netherlands’ liberal lump of mainstream parties – who have all refused to work with Mr Wilders – remains steady. Centrist D66 are doing welland on track for their best performance since the early 1990s.

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As you tuck into your pancakes, spare a thought for the competition officials locked in their offices until Easter finishing investigations into three complicated, politically-charged mega-mergers that all need to be settled in weeks.

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The prime concern is to avert any threat to the Good Friday agreement of 1998 that settled decades of violence in Northern Ireland. Further anxiety surrounds the potential to disrupt more than €50bn in annual trade flows between Ireland and Britain.

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It has been an excruciating decision for Mr Bayrou: the mayor of Pau has spent decades cultivating the centreground, coming close to qualifying for the presidential runoff in 2007 (but Segolene Royal made it to the second round against Nicolas Sarkozy).

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Ministers took a step towards resolving the splits with the IMF on the next stages of Greece’s bailout programme during a eurogroup meeting on Monday.

Mega-mergers are once again all the rage – just as protectionist currents are gaining strength. Corporate dealmakers are running headlong into some treacherous politics. Some combustible merger-related battles are already playing out in Europe.

Shortly before Kraft Heinz ditched its $143bn pursuit of Unilever on Sunday, Downing Street desperately thinking of ways to shield the Anglo-Dutch group from the US cost-cutters. EU law would have made that difficult. But the sentiment is clear. Britain’s historic open door is no longer so open.

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“The customs union means free movement of our goods. It doesn’t mean free movement of our trucks.” The FT visited the Turkish border with Bulgaria to find out what Britain’s lorry drivers can expect after Brexit. In short? Queues.

By Richard Milne

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To receive the Brussels Briefing in your inbox every morning, register for a free FT account here and then sign up here.

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Uncertainty abounds. Mr Trump has veered from dismissing Nato to saying he backs it. “Let’s put it this way: people are attached to Twitter, and it changes every half hour,” said a senior Nato diplomat. Still, allies were reassured that Gen Mattis and Rex Tillerson, the new secretary of state, expressed support for the organisation at their Senate confirmation hearings.

Britain’s Article 50 notification could be less than a month away. Theresa May has outfoxed her opponents in the first parliamentary skirmishes. Unexpected delays are always possible in the Lords. But it looks like Downing Street may meet its March 9 target for notifying Brexit, just in time for the European Council summit that day.

Britain’s prime minister will have the chance to explain herself in person (rather than just break up by fax/letter/email or text message). And the EU-27 will take their cue. Diplomats are already preparing a special EU-27 summit in early April to set “guidelines” for Brexit talks.

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Something is stirring in Luxembourg. In the space of a few months, the European Court of Justice could turn the EU’s refugee policy on its head, fundamentally reshape the way Muslims are treated in Europe and set the parameters for any post-Brexit trade deal. Through this handful of cases, the court will demonstrate its extraordinary and growing influence.

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After months out of the limelight, Greece has crept back up financial traders’ worry list.

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It was also fake.

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How do they get to €60bn? The Commission’s arguments are becoming clearer, but it remains cagey about the precise numbers (EU-27 officials may be told more today when they meet on this subject). From some (often patchy) public data, I’ve estimated the net €60bn bill consists of: €10bn for pension promises to EU officials; around €36bn from unpaid spending commitments; and €27bn of other liabilities and promises of structural funding that will be discharged between 2019-2023. From that is deducted roughly €12bn of UK receipts, from its share of assets and commitments.

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The deal has shades of the close – and controversial – links between Italy and Libya during the Colonel Gaddafi regime that had the effect of stemming the number of people making the deadly trip in the central Mediterranean.

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Brexit has “exploded a bomb” under the EU’s family finances, warned the UK’s former permanent representative Sir Ivan Rogers in parliament yesterday. How much Britain has to pay towards the damage will be a key part of the split.

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This morning, for the second week running, satirical newspaper Le Canard Enchaîné is hitting breakfast tables around France with revelations regarding Mr Fillon’s family finances.