German Foreign Policy (DE/FR/EN)

(Own report) - Since 1990, the German Navy is more than ever focusing its activities on the power struggle with Russia in the Baltic Sea. It is "conceivable" that "the eastern area of the Baltic Sea could become the venue for conflicts of interests and provocations," the head of a department in the German Navy Command wrote in an article published in the current edition of MarineForum. This necessitates preparations for "the regular and permanent presence of operational forces" and a resolute military buildup, and Berlin's announcement to procure five new corvettes is a signal in the right direction. At the same time, large scale maneuvers are regularly being held in the Baltic Sea. The most recent "BALTOPS 2017" exercise was focused around the scenario of naval combat against an enemy advancing "from the North." Strategic B-52 bombers - among others - we e training so close to the Russian border that Moscow saw itself forced to chase them off with fighter jets. B-52s can be equipped with nuclear arms. Moscow has announced Russian-Chinese naval exercises to be held this month - for the first time in the Baltic Sea.

(Own report) - The current discussion in Germany about the German population's "resilience" to attacks by enemy combatants can be traced back to reflections expressed in World War I and during the Nazi period. In 1935, Gen. Erich Ludendorff, who had been appointed in 1916 to the Supreme Command of the German Empire's army, declared that the "German people's spiritual unity" was a prerequisite to victory in the coming "total war." According to Ludendorff, the population, the military and the political leadership must be "welded" into a "powerful unity," seeing itself as a "community of destiny" and devoting all its energy to the service of warfare. To this end, the general demanded the introduction of "general compulsory service" for men and women, as well as the launching of the appropriate propaganda campaigns - "already in peacetime." Parallels can be found today in current German government initiatives. For example, in its "Civil Defense Concept" the German Ministry of the Interior speaks of changing the constitution to permit women to be obligated to work in "defense-relevant domains." Through "social discourse" the population should be prepared to "assume risks" and "endure" damaging events.

(Own report) - With billions in arms programs at the EU and national levels, the EU is seeking to become a globally operating military power. At its summit last week, the EU agreed not only to enhance cooperation among the member armed forces to facilitate their combat deployment - for example in Africa - but to also rapidly establish a "defense fund" planning to reallocate funds from civilian to military use. In a few years, Brussels will already be allocating €1.5 billion annually for both research and development of new military technology. The German government is also increasing its military spending and decided last week to allocate nearly ten billion euros for arms projects, including warships, tanker aircraft, satellites, and optimizing existing weaponry for current wars. In addition, billions are being earmarked for completely new projects. Lucrative for the arms industry, they include the Multi-role Combat Ship MKS 180, and a new fighter jet, capable of competing with the US F-35 and being integrated with guided missiles, drones and other weaponry.

(Own report) - The Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS) is calling for a propaganda campaign to strengthen the German population's resilience to attacks in their country by enemy combatants. In collaboration with "media partners" and "civil society," an "understanding" must be achieved that "firmness against crisis" by each citizen towards "terrorist attacks" forms an "integral part" of society's overall resilience," explains the government's military policy think tank. BAKS explicitly refers to the "White Paper on Security Policy and Future of the Bundeswehr," presented by the German Defense Ministry in 2016, which is also pleading "to improve the ability of both state and society to withstand and adapt" to all kinds of attacks, necessitating a "whole-of-government approach to security." The state-owned Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft had launched urban projects along the same lines, already years ago, in which "each individual citizen" is considered "part of a comprehensive concept of resilience to multiple security risks."

(Own report) - German arms exports are leveling out at a new record high, as indicated by the Arms Export Report for 2016 and the first four months of 2017, published last Wednesday in Berlin. According to the report, the German government has approved €6.85 billion worth of military equipment sales in 2016 - one billion less than in 2015 but significantly more than the fluctuations around five billion in the overall value of arms exports since 2003. The main recipients of German deliveries include countries of the Arab Peninsula, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, with the aim of forming a military counterforce to Iran. For over two years, they have been waging war against Yemen - also using German weapons. Berlin has also approved the sale of patrol boats to Saudi Arabia, which can be used to escalate the famine blockade around Yemen. Algeria and Egypt are receiving German warships. A closer cooperation with the navies of these two countries would enable Berlin and Brussels to complete their control over the EU's southern flank. German arms recipients include several countries around the Pacific basin, prone to become Western partners in the event of a conflict with the People's Republic of China.

(Own report) - A strategy paper prepared by the US Atlantic Council think tank - with the assistance of Germany's CDU-affiliated Konrad Adenauer Foundation - is proposing measures for Western powers to take to insure their continued influence in Iraq following the fall of Mosul. According to the paper, published a few days ago, US military forces should remain in Iraq for the foreseeable future, train and equip Iraqi forces to prevent IS from regrouping and recovering after its expected defeat. To push back Iran's influence, measures should also be taken to help the country's economic development. In Baghdad, a government "strongly inclined to cooperate closely with the United States" is needed, the paper states, and calls for US allies - particularly European countries - to engage in Iraq to "tackle sensitive areas in which the United States is not seen as neutral." Berlin is already using this opportunity to build its own base of influence in Iraq and is supporting the reconstruction of towns recaptured from the IS. Insuring western control of Iraq is considered all the more urgent, since Russia could successfully obtain major influence in Damascus following the anticipated end of the Syrian war.

(Own report) - On her trip to Argentina and Mexico last week, Chancellor Angela Merkel sought to use the tensions between US President Donald Trump and Latin America to strengthen German influence on the subcontinent, by expanding business relations. Berlin would like to knit closer ties to Argentina through a free trade agreement with the South American Mercosur alliance and is planning to expand bi-lateral trade with Mexico, on the basis of the existing free trade agreement. Already long before Trump's electoral victory, the German government had been seeking to strengthen its trade with Latin America. Trump's threats to fortify the Mexican border with a wall and the revocation of the NAFTA free trade agreement have practically driven the countries of this region into Berlin's arms. This was even reinforced, when Chancellor Merkel publicly criticized the wall project. The coup had the desired effect, despite the fact that the EU - under German pressure - is surrounding itself with wall-like border fortifications. The German effort to expand its Latin American influence is also directed at China.

(Own report) - Following the recent terror attacks, international pressure has been mounting on a major supporter of global jihadism - Saudi Arabia, a close German ally. In London, leading politicians from the opposition are calling on the British government to finally publish an investigation of the - presumably Saudi - financiers of British jihadis. Protest against the western powers' pact with the Saudi ruling clan is being raised also beyond Europe's borders. The youth league of the world's largest Islamic organization, the Indonesian Nahdlatul Ulama, for example, has published a declaration accusing the West of ignoring the direct correlation between the Saudi Salafist crusade "and the spread of terrorism worldwide." For decades, Saudi Arabia has been promoting Salafi jihadi milieux throughout the world - partly in alliance with Germany, partly with Berlin's de facto approval - significantly strengthening them in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Sahel, North Africa, the Middle East and the European countries with Muslim populations, such as Kosovo, as well as in Southeast Asia - in Indonesia and in the Philippines. While milieux supported by Saudi Arabia have increased their terror also in Western Europe, Berlin is continuing its cooperation with Riyadh.

(Own report) - With its continued worldwide support for Salafis, Germany's close partner, Saudi Arabia, is relentlessly fertilizing the soil for the growth of jihadi terror, according to the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). "The consequences of Saudi Arabia's support for Salafism are catastrophic," the SWP concludes in light of IS/Daesh activities in Europe. British experts are also sharply criticizing cooperation with Riyadh. If one seriously wants to combat jihadi terror, one "should start by stopping the mass export of Wahhabism's intolerance and hatred from Saudi Arabia," an insider recommends. This is, however, countered by Germany, other European powers and North America's relentless cooperation with the Saudi ruling clan. Just a few weeks ago, Chancellor Angela Merkel launched regular military cooperation with the Saudi armed forces. Out of consideration for Riyadh, the British government has been withholding an investigation, showing the - presumably Saudi - financiers of British jihadis. This had been made known only three days before the latest terror attack in London.

(Own report) - German authorities are seeking to enhance German influence in Ethiopia, a country of strategic significance at the Horn of Africa, using several business conferences. Ethiopia is currently regarded as one of the continent's booming countries. Its double-digit growth rates over the past few years have also aroused German business interests. Berlin and Addis Ababa have been closely cooperating in warding off refugees, where Ethiopia's well armed repressive forces have proven very effective partners. The German government is also seeking to intensify its military cooperation with Ethiopia. The Ethiopian armed forces are engaged in the African Union's (AU) efforts to hold down the conflicts in Somalia and prevent them from becoming a serious threat to maritime trade around the Horn of Africa. At times, this includes the use of brutal repression of the Somali civilian population.

(Own report) - Already 14 years ago, a high-ranking officer of the German Bundeswehr maintained ties with the most important rightwing extremist think tank in Germany. In early 2003, Erich Vad, colonel at the time, appeared as speaker at the "Institute for State Policy" (IfS) that is entertaining good relations with graduates of the Bundeswehr University in Munich, as well as to the trendy right-wing extremist "identitarian" movement. In 2003, Vad criticized in the institute's journal, the "paralysis of a post-bourgeois political class" in Germany, "whose world view primarily draws on re-education, on the sclerotic rituals of dealing with the [Nazi] past and the 1968 mythology." While Vad moved up to become Chancellor Angela Merkel's chief military policy advisor, the "IfS" has been seeking to intensify its relations with students at the Bundeswehr University in Munich. According to a study, 13 percent of the students at that university feel a political affinity with the "New Right." A First Lieutenant among the soldiers affiliated with the Institute, is today demonstrating in the "identitarian" movement, alongside neo-Nazis. The officer had last served in the mechanized infantry battalion in Oberviechtach. Today, that battalion comprises the largest segment of the German contingent in Lithuania's Rukla.

(Own report) - Berlin is considering deploying German fighter jets in Kuwait to systematically expand its foothold in this Middle East Emirate. It is not yet clear, whether the Bundeswehr's Tornados, currently participating in the anti-IS war, will be removed from Incirlik Air Base or where they may otherwise be stationed. The Kingdom of Jordan or the British colony on Cyprus (Akrotiri and Dhekelia) may be alternatives. Kuwait is also an option, given the fact that the German government has been intensifying its cooperation with the Emirate for quite some time - not only economically but also with arms deliveries. Increasing the German military presence in Kuwait would raise German-Kuwaiti relations to new heights. The Bundeswehr would also gain another foothold directly at the Persian Gulf. So far, particularly the US, British and French armed forces have a presence in that region.

(Own report) - German Minister of the Interior, Thomas de Maizière, is calling for the deployment of an EU border protection mission along Libya's border with Niger. Because, so far, efforts to seal the border have not had the desired results, further steps must be taken and "fact-finding missions" should be dispatched to the Libyan-Nigerien desert, de Maizière and his Italian counterpart wrote last week in a letter addressed to the EU Commission. By exerting political pressure and offering training programs, Berlin and Brussels had - successfully - induced the Nigerien repressive organs to intervene against undesirable migrants. However, as was to have been expected, the migrants are now taking alternative - and much more dangerous - routes. According to local human rights groups, this is a direct consequence of European pressure leading to a significant rise in the number of deaths along the transit route through the Sahara. Observers report that the EU is proposing agricultural projects to the impoverished town of Agadez, situated in the middle of the desert - an absurd substitution for its loss of income through the lucrative migration business.

(Own report) - Berlin und Brussels are obstructing China's "New Silk Road" mega project. Last Sunday, the EU refused to sign a declaration pertaining to this project at an international summit in Beijing with representatives from more than 100 countries, including 29 heads of states and governments. Beijing plans to invest trillions in this project to develop overland and maritime transport corridors from East Asia to Europe. It is considered one of today's most important economic-strategic projects. A similar project, initiated by Berlin and Brussels in 1993 was a failure. China seeks new markets for its economy, but also seeks to consolidate unstable regions in the West of the People's Republic. The "New Silk Road" is intended to closely connect the economies in Europe and Asia - without the United States, which had opposed it. German interests are contradictory: While business circles hope for new profits through intensified cooperation, China's rise, propelled by this project, is challenging Germany and the EU's geopolitical interests. Thus, Berlin and Brussels are taking an ambivalent position.

(Own report) - The German government is negotiating new German Turkish arms deals, as was confirmed by the German Ministry of Economics. Brigitte Zypries (SPD), Minister of the Economy, spoke with the CEO of Rheinmetall weapons manufacturer about upgrading the Turkish Leopard battle tank. "In principle," such deals with NATO partners "can not to be restricted," according to Berlin. The German government is also seeking to re-invigorate German-Turkish economic cooperation, to strengthen bilateral relations. Germany does not want to loose Turkey as a "bridge" connecting Germany and the EU to the Middle East. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Ankara is not only strengthening the country's economy and, in the long run, make it one of the world's top ten economies ("Vision 2023"), he is also planning to transform the country into an independent regional power, forming alliances as it chooses - no longer dependent on the western states. The reorientation of its foreign policy is accompanied by the country's transformation into a presidential dictatorship.

(Own report) - German business associations are calling on the EU Commission to end its Brexit provocations. An unorderly Brexit would entail enormous costs for the German economy, the President of the German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) warned; therefore an amicable Brexit agreement with London must be reached. The Federation of German Industries (BDI) expressed a similar view. The head of the EU's Commission's recent audacious financial demands and deliberate indiscretions have stirred massive resentment in the United Kingdom and were rightfully considered an attempt to influence Britain's upcoming parliamentary elections. Observers attribute these indiscretions to EU Commissioner Jean-Claude Juncker's German Chief of Staff, Martin Selmayr (CDU), who is currently playing a key role in the Commission's Brexit negotiations' preparations. The German Chancellery is now calling for restraint in view of the severe damage a hard Brexit could entail for the German economy.

(Own report) - In Southeast Europe, Berlin and the EU are facing a setback in their power struggle with Russia. The Republic of Moldova, once the EU's "model for Eastern Partnerships" - that has been officially associated with the EU since July 1, 2016 - is slowly fading away from Berlin and Brussels' influence. Once pro-Russian President Igor Dodon assumed office, in December 2016, the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) granted observer status to this small southeastern European country. According to recent polls, Dodon's pro-Russian party could expect a clear majority in next year's parliamentary elections. The perspective of a comprehensive rejection of the EU and full admission to the EAEU would no longer be ruled out. This development is the result of Berlin and Brussels' having relied on despised oligarchs, to insure their influence in the Moldovan Republic. One of these, currently in control of the government, seeks to maintain power by changing the voting laws.

(Own report) - In the prelude to Chancellor Merkel's visit to Russia, German business associations and foreign policy experts are urging that the policy of sanctions be ended. They argue that sanctions practically have become ineffective, since Russia's economy has withstood these trade restrictions and is now even recovering. The boycott has also damaged the EU's image and that of the USA in Russia and, even though intended to weaken, it has helped to stabilize the Russian government. Moreover, Russian orders, that German businesses had once expected, were increasingly going to competitors, for example in China - and are ultimately lost. However, German economists still see Russia as a lucrative market. According to an analysis by the Bertelsmann Foundation and Munich's ifo Institute, a free-trade agreement between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), congregated around Russia, would generate a growth of 45 billion euros. Government advisors recommend that the sanctions policy be gradually ended. This would not eliminate the prospect that Moscow, at any time, could be forced to its knees with an arms race.

(Own report) - This Sunday, Chancellor Angela Merkel is expected in the Saudi capital Riyadh for talks on the wars in Syria and Yemen, according to the Saudi media. Her talks in the Golf monarchy will therefore focus not only on expanding economic relations but on the proxy wars, Saudi Arabia is currently waging against Iran. Berlin supports Riyadh in these proxy wars - politically but also with the supply of weapons proven to have been used in Yemen. Saudi Arabia is strongly criticized for its war in Yemen, which is causing numerous civilian casualties. In addition, Riyadh's maritime blockade of Yemeni ports is causing a famine. 2.2 million children are malnourished, including half a million who are severely malnourished and at imminent risk of death. In March, Berlin authorized the delivery of supplementary German patrol boats to Saudi Arabia, in spite of them being used to enforce the maritime blockade. Aid organizations are sounding the alarm.

(Own report) - Berlin's favorite candidate took the lead in the first round in Sunday's French presidential elections. According to the latest predictions, Emmanuel Macron won with 23.4 percent of the votes, followed by Marine Le Pen of the Front National with 22.6. Macron is expected to win the May 7 runoffs. Initially, the German government had banked on and openly promoted the conservative candidate François Fillon. However, after his approval ratings significantly dropped in the polls, due to the scandal over high payments to his wife as his parliamentary assistant, Berlin was forced to turn to Macron. Like Fillon, Macron is considered "Germany-compatible" by a German think tank, whereas all other candidates are viewed as unsuitable for "constructive cooperation" because of their criticism of the EU and/or of NATO. Recently, Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble ostentatiously recommended voting for Macron. Berlin's interference on behalf of Macron shows once again that German domination of the EU does not stop at national borders, and - according to a well-known EU observer - surpasses by far Russia's feeble meddling in France.