This report is for the media and the general public.
Summary
Ceasefire violations[1]
In Donetsk region, the SMM recorded fewer ceasefire violations, including about 85 explosions, compared with the previous reporting period (about 200 explosions). The majority of ceasefire violations were recorded in areas south-east of Svitlodarsk (government-controlled, 57km north-east of Donetsk), south of the Donetsk Filtration Station (DFS) (15km north of Donetsk) and south-east of Chermalyk (government-controlled, 31km north-east of Mariupol).
In Luhansk region, the SMM recorded fewer ceasefire violations, including about 40 explosions, compared with the previous reporting period (about 120 explosions). The majority of ceasefire violations were recorded in areas south-east of Popasna (government-controlled, 69km west of Luhansk).
Follow-up on reports of a van hit by small-arms fire in Chermalyk
The SMM followed up on reports that a van of a funeral company had been hit by small-arms fire in Chermalyk on 2 February. On 4 February, at the yard of the funeral company in Zoria (government-controlled, 22km north-east of Mariupol), the SMM saw a green van with a fresh hole in the outer lower right corner of the right-hand front door and a corresponding burn mark on the inner door frame, as well as another fresh hole below the roof line on the right-hand side and a corresponding hole in the front left-hand side door. The SMM assessed the damage as caused by bullets (7.62mm in calibre). On the same day, a woman (in her sixties) in Chermalyk told the SMM that she was at the cemetery with a representative of the funeral company and three cemetery workers on 2 February and that she had been trying to enter the van when she had heard the sound of bullets hitting it around 12:30 (see SMM Daily Report 4 February 2019).
Disengagement areas[2]
On 5 February, an SMM mini-unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) again spotted 18 anti-tank mines (TM-62) laid out in four rows across the road between Bohdanivka (government-controlled, 41km south-west of Donetsk) and Viktorivka (non-government-controlled, 42km south-west of Donetsk), near the disengagement area near Petrivske (non-government-controlled, 41km south of Donetsk).
During the day on 6 February, positioned near the Petrivske disengagement area and inside the disengagement areas near Stanytsia Luhanska (government-controlled, 16km north-east of Donetsk) and near Zolote (government-controlled, 60km west of Luhansk), the SMM observed calm situations.[3]
Withdrawal of weapons
The SMM continued to monitor the withdrawal of weapons in implementation of the Memorandum and the Package of Measures and its Addendum.
In violation of withdrawal lines:
Non-government-controlled areas
5 February
An SMM long-range UAV spotted:
An SMM mini-UAV spotted:
Beyond withdrawal lines but outside of designated storage sites:
Non-government-controlled areas
5 February
An SMM long-range UAV spotted:
Government-controlled areas
6 February
The SMM saw:
Indications of military and military-type presence in the security zone[4]
Government-controlled areas
5 February
An SMM mini-UAV spotted:
6 February
The SMM saw:
An SMM mini-UAV spotted:
Non-government-controlled areas
5 February
An SMM long-range UAV spotted:
An SMM mini-UAV spotted:
SMM facilitation of repair works to civilian infrastructure and of possible demining activities
The SMM facilitated and monitored adherence to the ceasefire to enable repair works to a water conduit near Novotoshkivske (government-controlled, 53km west of Luhansk) and snow removal near the bridge in Shchastia (government-controlled, 20km north of Luhansk). The SMM also facilitated and monitored adherence to the ceasefire to enable an assessment of the situation for possible demining activities at a school in Zolote-4/Rodina (government-controlled, 59km west of Luhansk) and near a kindergarten in Stanytsia Luhanska. At both locations, a representative of the State Emergency Service told the SMM that no explosive devices had been found. The Mission continued to facilitate the operation of the DFS and to monitor the overall security situation in the area of the pumping station in Vasylivka (non-government-controlled, 24km north-east of Donetsk).
Demining activities
In Hranitne (government-controlled 60km south of Donetsk), the SMM saw four members of the State Emergency Service carrying mine detectors and wearing personal protective equipment, accompanied by a Ukrainian Armed Forces representative of the Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination (JCCC), conducting demining activities inside a fenced-off area around a functioning kindergarten. Representatives of the State Emergency Service later on told the SMM that they had found and cleared two exploded shells outside the fenced-off area about 100m north of the kindergarten: one from an IFV (BMP-2) cannon (30mm) and another from an anti-aircraft gun (ZU-23, 23mm).
Border areas not under government control
While at a border crossing point near Ulianivske (61km south-east of Donetsk) for about 20 minutes, the SMM saw no traffic crossing the border in either direction.
While at a border crossing point near Uspenka (73km south-east of Donetsk) for about one hour, the SMM saw 21 cars (four with Ukrainian and 12 with Russian Federation licence plates, and five with “DPR” plates), a bus (with Russian Federation licence plates), 63 trucks (53 covered cargo trucks, six tank trucks and four with “toxic” and “flammable” markings – of which 23 with Ukrainian, 11 with Russian Federation, one with Georgian and six with Belarusian licence plates, and 21 with “DPR” and one with “LPR” plates) queuing to exit Ukraine.
Public gathering in Kyiv related to funding for housing for internally displaced persons
The SMM observed a gathering organized by a non-governmental organization advocating for the rights of internally displaced persons (IDP) who have participated in the ATO. At the corner of Instytutska and Bankova Streets, the SMM saw about 100 people (90 per cent men, ten per cent women), some carrying banners indicating they were from Lviv and Kyiv regions and others with flags of, amongst others, Svoboda, Sokil and Aidar. Speakers addressed the participants with messages criticizing what they said was a lack of sufficient funding allocated in the 2019 budget to enforce a provision supplying adequate housing to IDP ATO veterans. The SMM saw about 35 police officers present.
Follow up on attack against a civil activist in Kropyvnytskyi, Kirovohrad region
On 4 February, the SMM met with a civil activist in Kropyvnytskyi (formerly Kirovohrad, 206km west of Dnipro), to follow up on media reports of an attack against him on 26 January. The SMM saw that his right eye was blood-shot and that there was a cut just below it. He told the Mission that he had incurred the injuries after he had been attacked outside his home by two men on the evening of 26 January. On 5 February, in Kropyvnytskyi, a representative of Kirovohrad Regional National Police told the SMM that the attack on the civil activist had likely occurred as a result of his work and added that the investigation continued under Article 296 (hooliganism) of the Criminal Code of Ukraine.
The Mission continued monitoring in Kherson, Odessa, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv and Chernivtsi.
*Restrictions of SMM’s freedom of movement or other impediments to fulfilment of its mandate
The SMM’s monitoring and freedom of movement are restricted by security hazards and threats, including risks posed by mines, unexploded ordnance (UXO) and other impediments – which vary from day to day. The SMM’s mandate provides for safe and secure access throughout Ukraine. All signatories of the Package of Measures have agreed on the need for this safe and secure access, that restriction of the SMM’s freedom of movement constitutes a violation, and on the need for rapid response to these violations. They have also agreed that the JCCC should contribute to such response and co-ordinate mine clearance. Nonetheless, the armed formations in parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions frequently deny the SMM access to areas adjacent to Ukraine’s border outside control of the Government (for example, see SMM Daily Report 4 February 2019). The SMM’s operations in Donetsk and Luhansk regions remain restricted following the fatal incident of 23 April 2017 near Pryshyb; these restrictions continued to limit the Mission’s observations.
Denial of access:
Regular restrictions related to disengagement areas and mines/UXO:
Delay:
Other impediments:
[1] For a complete breakdown of ceasefire violations, please see the annexed table. The SMM camera in Svitlodarsk was not operational during the reporting period and winter weather conditions limited the observation capabilities of some SMM cameras.
* Please see the section at the end of this report entitled “Restrictions of the SMM’s freedom of movement or other impediments to fulfilment of its mandate”.
[2] Disengagement is foreseen in the Framework Decision of the Trilateral Contact Group relating to disengagement of forces and hardware of 21 September 2016.
[3] Due to the presence of mines, including on a road between Bohdanivka and Petrivske, the SMM’s access to its camera in Petrivske remains limited, and thus the SMM has not been able to access observations from the camera since 22 June 2018.
[4] The hardware mentioned in this section is not proscribed by the provisions of the Minsk agreements on the withdrawal of weapons.
[5] The interference could have originated from anywhere within the radius of several kilometres of the UAV’s position.
(B2) En endossant le refus de la fusion entre les deux industriels français et allemand du rail, Alstom et Siemens, la Danoise Margrethe Vestager, commissaire à la Concurrence, a-t-elle signé la fin de ses espoirs d’être un jour à la tête de la Commission européenne ? En fait les jeux étaient faits d’avance et l’hypothèse Vestager à la tête de la Commission en 2019 tenait plus du leurre chimique que d’une réalité politique possible
(crédit : Commission européenne)
Le choix d’un président de la Commission européenne est souvent une alchimie complexe, mais qui ressort d’éléments à la fois objectifs (politique, national) et plus subjectifs (carrière personnelle, ). Les oublier expose.à l’erreur…
Premier élément, d’ordre politique, le poste de président de la Commission européenne est normalement réservée au parti majoritaire arrivé en tête, ou plutôt celui qui peut synthétiser une majorité de coalition. Sauf évènement de dernière minute, ce sont toujours les chrétiens-démocrates du parti populaire européen qui devraient arriver en première position aux élections, à bonne distance de leurs premiers poursuivants (les sociaux-démocrates). Et le PPE a clairement indiqué qu’il revendiquait la tête de la Commission pour un des siens, et n’entend pas faire ce ‘cadeau’ aux libéraux et démocrates (auquel appartient l’intéressée).
Deuxième élément, d’ordre national, le gouvernement danois n’a pas vraiment l’intention de renouveler M. Vestager au poste de commissaire. Non qu’elle ait démérité, au contraire. Mais son parti (social libéral), classé au centre-gauche, est dans l’opposition. Le gouvernement, qui a une autre composition politique, plus à droite, entend promouvoir un des siens, et non pas faire ce ‘cadeau’ à un potentiel adversaire politique. Cette condition basique, mais absolue, pour être nommée à la Commission européenne n’est pas remplie.
Troisième élément, d’ordre personnel, M. Vestager a prouvé ses compétences à la Commission européenne, elle est ancienne ministre (Éducation, puis Économie et Intérieur), mais elle n’a jamais été Premier ministre. Et le Conseil européen aime bien choisir parmi les membres du ‘club’, un ancien, le plus à même de comprendre leurs préoccupations. C’est une tradition ininterrompue après Jacques Delors. La Danoise peut soigner son image, prendre soin d’obtenir des portraits flatteurs dans la presse. Cela ne suffit pas à convaincre.
Quatrième élément, européen, qui n’est pas à négliger, le Danemark n’est pas un élément du cœur européen. Il ne participe ni à l’Euro, à une partie de la politique de justice, ni à la politique de défense, du fait de ses choix internes, et n’a jamais marqué contrairement à plusieurs autres ‘petits’ pays, sa volonté de renforcer l’intégration européenne. De par ces nombreuses ‘opt-outs’, et prises de position, c’est un outsider dans le jeu européen. Donner à un de ses nationaux le soin de conduire la politique de l’exécutif européen qui est l’élément le plus intégré de la politique européenne serait assez peu justifiable.
Dernier élément, plus géopolitique, le départ du Royaume-Uni prive le camp ‘nordique’ d’un poids non négligeable. Et dans ce camp, un Finlandais ou un Irlandais, voire un Néerlandais serait plus ‘indiqué’ pour occuper un poste de tête européen, que ce soit à la Commission ou ailleurs (Conseil européen, Parlement, etc.).
Conclusion : Rien n’est jamais impossible au niveau européen. Mais Margrethe Vestager avait très peu de chances, ne remplissant pas plusieurs des critères fondamentaux, pour accéder à la fonction suprême européenne. Ce bien avant sa décision dans la fusion Siemens-Alstom. Rien ne justifiait donc de sa part une quelconque mansuétude dans l’analyse de la concurrence. Ceux qui ont suggéré cette idée dans l’entourage de Emmanuel Macron, comme dans la presse, devaient savoir pertinemment ces éléments. Cela ressort davantage des ballons d’essai, ou des idées de comptoir, des quelques leurres qu’on lance avant d’aborder les ‘vrais’ choix.
(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)
Lire aussi : Comment est nommé le président de la Commission. Quelques points oubliés.
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