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This article originally appeared in the Global Policy Journal.

The fast-evolving processing power of computers is a fact that hardly surprises anyone today. This was predicted five decades ago by the co-founder of Intel,  Gordon Moore , in what is now widely known as the Moore Law. He postulated that processor speed (and overall processing power) for computers would double every 18 months and that the number of transistors on an integrated chip would double at the same pace. The law gained so much popularity that it became some sort of self-fulfilling prophecy and  chip fabricators   raced to make processors faster, smaller and simultaneously cheaper.

In the past decade, this trend appears to have reached a plateau as the  difference in processing speed  between 2000 and 2009 has barely doubled in a 10-year span. This has prompted conclusions that the end of Moore’s Law, anticipated for a while now, is nearing. To keep up with the demand to increase processing power, big companies will have to invest much more in research, thus potentially spiking up the prices of processors.

While the accuracy of Moore’s Law is now losing ground, this does not mean that the search for supercomputing has faded too. Moving away from conventional computing, with its already impressive power, quantum computing is part of a new revolutionary generation of computer research which aims to surpass not only limitations in speed but also in the  technical limits of the chip-making material . Whatever speed can be imagined with computers, it is nowhere near what quantum computing is expected to achieve.

In the 1980s, the  notion that quantum physics  could be used to perform computations simultaneously, on massive amounts of information, emerged for the first time. The quantum computer is considered a “ seventies child ” as its conceptual foundations were first laid during the late ‘70s and early ‘80s. The interest in developing such a machine, with unprecedented speed and agility, was revived in the mid 1990s, when computer theorists began to explore the possibilities of developing quantum computers. Highly ambitious researches placed overly optimistic bets that quantum computers could be in use by 2010. To date, scientists have yet to create an operational quantum computer but this task is surely not hampering its research and development. “ The Holy Grail of supercomputing ” is now drawing increasing interest and investment: NASA, IBM and Google’s D-Wave Systems are among the most important actors in the field and more recently, the National Security Agency joined the ranks by pledging $ 80 million on basic research in quantum computing.

What is so special about quantum computing?

Unlike a classic computer, quantum computers do not work in an orderly and linear manner.  Conventional computers  function according to binary logic, using 1s and 0s (“either/or” distinctions) and stringing together combinations of these. By contrast, quantum computing uses quantum bits or qubits, which are basically quantum particles such as electrons or atom nuclei. This gives quantum computers unique functionalities as qubits communicate with each other through entanglement and calculate every existing possibility at the same time. Qubits are placed in a state of “ superposition ” where they do not have values of 1 or 0 but both. In this regard, quantum computing is a step further from what is possible in the real world as  qubits   can be in more than one state at a time.

This means that quantum computers would be capable of huge calculations and enormous processing power. They could  surpass conventional computers  in speed and could help solve or race through problems that would normally take other systems eons to solve.

The ongoing research is also charting new grounds in material science and our understanding of materials properties. For example, a leading start-up in quantum computing,  D-Wave Systems , claims that certain types of metals, such as niobium (a soft metal that becomes superconducting at low temperatures), are key to the development of the quantum processor. Moreover, other recent breakthroughs in  silicon-wrapped quantum technology  prove again that more thorough investigation of materials and properties of chemical elements can unlock the unknowns that have delayed progress.

Quantum computers, once fully functional, will mark the ultimate frontier in computing, being able to make calculations billions of times faster. It is their extraordinary features which also prompt immediate considerations about their social and security implications. In a future not too distant, when the quantum leap will have reached an operational stage, we can expect a series of groundbreaking uses. For a start,  quantum computers  could help scientists find cures for cancer, advance research of Alzheimer’s disease, or find distant planets; they could be used to simulate or test certain political and military scenarios and inform policymakers about possible outcomes. But by far, the greatest scope for interest (and investment) so far has been the promise of quantum computing in the area of cryptography.

Quantum computers could potentially be capable of  breaking public key encryption , which is responsible for protecting almost all private communication online. Not surprisingly, the US spy agency,  the NSA , has been at the forefront for the development of the supercomputer which could crack most keys used for encrypted communication. Its sponsored research project, called “ Penetrating Hard Targets ”, aims to build a computer that could break almost all forms of encryption that protects medical, business, e-commerce, banking or government records in the world. Clearly, if successful, this would be the ultimate ‘Big Brother moment’ for the agency. Today, long encryption keys (particularly for sensitive information) are very difficult to break, taking up to several years but quantum computer could accelerate the process, making it millions of times faster. Similarly, since qubits cannot be cloned, hacking a code encrypted with a quantum computer is virtually impossible and hacking would mostly be a concern if a hacker were to have access to a quantum computer.

Racing for the supercomputer

The development of quantum computing remains highly disputed and advancing slow due to a combination of scientific unknowns, mixed reactions in the academic community and industries. A persistent obstacle has been the challenge of instability and vulnerability. Quantum computers combine computing with quantum mechanics, an extremely complex and still mysterious branch of physics. On top of this, as  calculations take place at the quantum level , no outside interference (such as light or noise) is permissible since the qubits would collapse and it would disrupt the calculations. This makes quantum computing extremely expensive to build and maintain.

However, as elusive as the search for the super computer might be, it has sparked a competition in which both states and private shareholders have stakes.

The US Defence agencies have been investing in quantum computing research for over a decade and other countries have gradually entered the race as well. Now China, Russia and other European states are investing in quantum research and Canada’s Institute of Quantum Computing at University of Waterloo is over a decade old. In late 2013, the  UK government announced  it would spend £270 million to build a network of quantum computing centres.

Security Implications

The construction of a functional quantum computer means much more than simply winning the innovation race and it has clear national security relevance. In the context of the current of development, the race is now fought at an academic level, where researchers work in interdisciplinary labs to shrink transistors to the quantum scale.

However, as pointed out by many, science is now inevitably done in global collaborative frameworks and it is quite difficult to estimate if there are guaranteed paybacks for individual nations. Ultimately, the Herculean efforts and funding that defence agencies pledge often pass through private industry and will benefit the commercial sector too, not only the government.

Quantum computing will have very disruptive effects, both at national levels and internationally. They will have implications for  information security , impacting both symmetric-key algorithms and public-key algorithms. If spying and mass surveillance are already impressively effective with the more limited means we now have in place, quantum computing will simply enable unprecedented breaches of privacy and access to confidential data in businesses, hospitals, banks or governments worldwide. The NSA  no longer hides  its support and sponsorship for the development of quantum computing which could be used to crack any encryption system in the world. Hand-in-hand with the race for the supercomputer is the race to ‘own’ the internet and gain virtually unlimited access to information. Quantum communication will redefine how we communicate, making data transfer faster and more able since quantum computers can process enormous amounts of information with high encoding and decoding speeds.

The amount of distrust already existing over questions of privacy both domestically and between governments is only expected to surge, creating further domestic and diplomatic frictions and accelerating competition between states. A likely scenario is that with functional quantum computers, some governments will speed up the investment for the creation of other,  cryptography-capable computers . At the same time, this competitive situation will leave behind less resourceful countries, widening a digital gap that is already stark.

The unique potential of quantum computers could also give unmerited temporary advantage to some individuals, retailers or groups over others. Quantum computers could dramatically improve stock market predictions thus benefiting  wealthy financial institutions . This is not an imminent risk since the fees for access to quantum computing will be staggering, yet the possibility of quantum computing entering the Wall Street is not to be dismissed.

Coexistent with its numerous security risks, quantum computing offers a set of unique opportunities for humanity and states. From better logistic optimizations to DNA sequencing, better predictions in global warming and weather forecasting, quantum computing means new potential to tackle global challenges, improve healthcare and find cures for diseases, solve optimization, labour or economic problems (including in agriculture or water management). The application of quantum computers to solve optimization problems could be especially useful in the defence sector or space, where it can significantly impact the speed and accuracy of operations. A quantum computer could calculate ideal paths for travel either on land or air and it could improve code verification dramatically. Indeed, software verification is a key element in the defence industry’s push for quantum computers, especially as complex software systems are increasingly at the heart of defence applications. The  F-35 joint strike fighter , for instance, has more than 10 million lines of code on the aircraft and quantum computers could be employed to do the code validation and verification.

Google also hopes that quantum computers could be used to make better and faster robots and more sophisticated artificial intelligence. Their use could also be extended to  aviation  in instances such as snowstorms where quantum computers could help find optimal alternative routes instantly. The Space agency NASA has also shown interest in quantum computing and its  Quantum Artificial Intelligence Laboratory  is working on exploring the likely applications of quantum computing in space. In addition to optimization solutions during space missions, such as better planning and scheduling, the lab is also working on improving the operations of NASA’s Kepler mission, which searches for habitable and Earth-sized planets. Current computational limitations, which use heuristic algorithms to identify transit signals from smaller planets, only help find approximate solutions whereas a quantum computer could perform data-intensive searches among the over 150,000 stars in the field of view of the spacecraft.

Emerging technologies for renewable energy are also taking into account the power of quantum computing and  California’s renewable energy program  aims to use “smart grids” or “quantum grids”, which is a network of quantum computers, to allow higher efficiency of input and output of energy.  Qubits  can also be deployed in solar panels to replace current photovoltaic cells technology or in quantum batteries and quantum dots can be embedded as semiconducting material, revolutionizing the energy sector.

Quantum computing is possibly a final threshold of scientific marvel, which will bring unparalleled precision and accuracy in computing. Given the extremely sensitive functions it can perform, it is critical that research and dissemination is done responsibly, with a view to harness its positive contributions. It is indeed critical that the development of quantum computing progresses in a way that will impede its becoming merely a tool for enhanced surveillance and endless control.

 

 

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Chaque conflit constitue un redoutable banc d’essai pour évaluer les choix technologiques Rencontre avec Alain De Neve, chercheur à l’Institut Royal Supérieur de Défense, en Belgique, et analyste spécialiste de l’impact des innovations technologiques sur les doctrines stratégiques. Propos recueillis par Gilles Vilain. Quel rôle occupe la recherche sur les matériaux dans le domaine de […]

Public Discussion: "Ukraine, ISIS: which role for the use of force?"

Public Discussion: "Nuclear Weapons: The State of Play 2015"

This article originally appeared in the Open Mind Blog.

When  Aristotle  famously claimed that the good life was not made in a summer, nor in a day, he implied that the best life was  a life committed to contemplation.  The question of what gives meaning to life has been central to philosophical inquires for millennia. While no definite answer would appear to clarify or solve this fundamental question, a look into  the neurochemistry underlying our feelings, thoughts and behaviour  charts new grounds in this exploration. Moreover, it hints at ways in which  gratification is relevant both to society and the world at large.

 

A long history of philosophical inquiries

Existentialist   thinkers  emphasized the possibility of individuals being able to generate meaning through their actions.  Sartre ’s statement that existence precedes essence is  a rejection of the possibility that there could be any externally derived purpose to human life. It is simultaneously an argument that one’s life is given meaning through specific actions. Nietzsche ’s philosophy carries a similar credo: that defining one’s life creatively according to chosen actions makes a person who they are.

The ideas that one must live an “authentic” life and make choices that harmonize with a robust conception of the self are powerful, but leave unaddressed the question of  what exactly it is that promotes authenticity.  It is here that contemporary  neuroscience  can offer further insights, as a shared neurochemistry implies similar needs for achieving gratification. The human brain is “hard-wired” to seek pleasure and avoid pain , as well as to repeat acts that achieve gratification and avoid actions that cause discomfort.  This process, which I previously called  neurochemically mediated gratification   implies that at a fundamental level,  human beings are all seeking similar things.  The difficulty is that  at an individual level , such gratification might find expression in destructive actions, such as  sustaining an addiction or engaging in criminal activity.  It is thus crucial for societal policies to be fashioned and implemented with these challenges in mind.

 

Neurochemical gratification: creating the right circumstances

Our gratification is experienced neurochemically, irrespective of what prompts it.  All of our feelings, emotions and experiences have a physical component insofar as they are mediated by neurochemistry. With the benefit of  advanced scanning technology , we can observe that different mental processes change regional blood flow and  chemistry in the brain . As such, we generally seek to feed our  neurotransmitters  (the chemical messengers transmitting signals within the brain) and boost the  “feel good” chemical dopamine . It is likely that in time  other neurochemicals relevant to various cognitive processes   and gratifications  will be identified and their specific actions known. However, to date, we know that the neurotransmitter  dopamine , involved in reward processes in the brain, informs us which of our actions are more conducive to gratification and which are not. However, what exactly contributes to each of our respective forms of gratification and levels of dopamine as individuals can vary a great deal.

Not only is our gratification experienced on a personal neurochemical level but it is also attuned to our respective family and socio-political environments. In my paradigm of emotional amoral egoism , I discussed  the relationship between our neurochemical underpinnings, the role of circumstances, morality and good governance.  The fundamental feature encoded in our genetics is  survival , meaning that the main driver of our actions will almost always be based in this instinct. Actions that are influenced by other drivers have a margin of fluctuation in strong alignment to our environment, including  our moral compass and propensity for moral acts.

Like our human nature itself,  our neurochemical make-up is modifiable, meaning that there is significant room for the environment to influence  and mould both the motivators of our neurochemical gratification and our behaviour. Therefore, we will try and test many experiences but will predominantly choose to repeat those actions that gratify us in some way, no matter how unrealistic or influenced by our own perceptions they might be. Our gratification is highly individualistic and experienced subjectively, but it is also fluid and can be ‘instructed’ to a certain extent by the environment, repeated experiences, and exposures. This also implies that our neurochemical gratification might not be exclusively constructive , as we can opt for behaviour that is harmful to ourselves or others, such as forms of addiction or violence. The upside of this alterability, however, is that the foundations for this gratification can be influenced and turned into constructive forms of behaviour that meet societal expectations. In these situations, good governance plays a tremendous role. We might not be intrinsically moral, generous, altruistic etc., but living in a setting where basic survival and dignity needs are met will enhance our reflection, which is in turn subsequently required for  conscious  moral acts.

Conversely, living in fear, deprivation, injustice and insecurity precludes morality in most cases, and  prompts survival-driven acts.  Harmful excesses of any kind promote a form of personal gratification that is very likely to affect both individuals people and society at large.  However, ultimately, the meaningfulness of existence is individualistic and results from whatever brings each one of us most  sustainable neurochemical gratification . What we can hope and strive for, collectively, is to create environments in which SNG comes from activities and beliefs that will create  a balance between our personal wishes and acceptable values, both domestically and globally.

Neurochemistry teaches us that at the very basic level,  we are fundamentally hardwired for survival and pre-programmed to ‘feel good’,  often irrespective of what factors constitute the sources of our gratification or, in some cases, their social acceptability. To keep this gratification sustainable in a social and political setting, family, education and society need to create mechanisms whereby individuals associate gratification with behaviour that is positive  and constructive both for the individual and for society. Anything from social norms to media outlets, educational systems or entertainment industries contribute to the way gratification is defined. In order to ensure functional social orders, it is crucial that gratification is linked to constructive behaviour, such as social responsibility, work ethic, lawfulness, empathy, tolerance and mutual respect.

 

 

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The Master of Advanced Studies (MAS) is jointly run by the Geneva Centre for Security Policy and the Global Studies Institute (GSI) of the University of Geneva.

It is based upon the internationally recognized training expertise of GCSP’s Leadership in International Security Course , a course on international security policy entering its 30th year, and the long-standing academic expertise of the Global Studies Institute of the University of Geneva. The MAS attracts participants who serve in the broad area of security policy, be it in government, military, private sector or international institutions and agencies engaged in security-related policy planning and decision-making. 

Creative diplomacy is diplomacy practiced through the prism of creativity. This course provides participants with the opportunity to explore the concept of “creative diplomacy” as a powerful extension to classical diplomacy. In addition to discovering new methods and skills in diplomacy, participants will be able to discuss common challenges, and share experiences and develop creative and innovative solutions.

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is currently the subject of heated debate – but with a narrow focus. The debate is primarily concerned with the impact of TTIP on Germany and Europe. Too little attention is being paid to the implications of this mega-regional for the rest of the world. In light of growing global in-equality, the question of how we can shape globalisation fairly and whether TTIP can play a role in this is more pressing than ever.
TTIP is an attempt by the European Union (EU) and the United States to define new rules of play for the world economy with potential global application. From a development policy perspective, this exclusive approach gives cause for concern, as it precludes emerging economies and developing countries from negotiations.
The TTIP negotiation agenda goes far beyond the dis-mantling of trade barriers, also encompassing, for example, the rules for cross-border investment and a broad spectrum of regulations that are often only loosely related to traditional trade policy. This expansive negotiation agenda is the real innovation of the transatlantic negotiations, with uncertain consequences for all those countries that do not have a seat at the negotiating table. Whether they like it or not, these countries will be affected by the rules agreed upon at this table through their participation in international trade.
As such, TTIP could mark an important turning point in the world trade system. TTIP, along with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiated by the United States and 11 other nations, threatens to further undermine multilateral negotiations within the World Trade Organization (WTO). Of even greater concern is the fact that emerging economies such as Brazil, India and especially China, none of whom are involved in the TTIP and TPP negotiations, could react to these mega-regionals by joining together to form opposing trade blocs. Instead of taking a largely exclusive approach, it would be better if the transatlantic partners placed the emphasis on cooperation with emerging eco-nomies and developing countries, especially given the tremendous economic potential of these nations and the global challenges currently being faced in other policy areas, challenges which can only be overcome by working together with these states.
When it comes to promoting global development and shaping globalisation fairly, the TTIP negotiations offer potential and present challenges at the same time. Nonetheless, there are some specific recommendations as to how TTIP can be made as development-friendly as possible: 1) steps should be taken to avoid discriminating against third countries in the area of regulatory cooperation; 2) rules of origin should be as generous, uniform and open as possible; 3) preference programmes of the EU and the United States should be harmonised;  4) third countries should be afforded credible options for joining the partnership in future.
Development policy stakeholders have the following options for action: 1) the TTIP negotiations should under-score the importance of measures for integrating developing countries into global value chains; 2) efforts need to be made at European level to promote greater consistency between TTIP and development policy goals, particularly those of the post-2015 agenda; 3) steps should be taken to reach out to emerging economies and developing countries with greater transparency and to offer them the opportunity to engage in dialogue; 4) the WTO process needs to be reinvigorated and reformed at multilateral level.

World affairs today appear to ignore ‘order.’ Enshrined in the age-old Westphalian system, the role of the nation-state is more than ever under challenge. Governments compete with multinational businesses, NGOs and ever-multiplying informal networks to attempt to control the narrative. Globally, analysts ponder whether newcomers such as ISIS constitute ‘anti-state’ actors that do not adhere to any rules which civilised parties recognise. Elsewhere, some states behave as if adherence to international rules is merely optional while others modulate cautiously their influence and responsibility. Competition for scarce natural resources worldwide is as fierce as it has ever been. The United Nations Security Council, foreseen in 1945 as a main arbiter of disputes between and among nations, seems paralysed, often impotent beyond rhetoric.

In den letzten beiden Jahrhunderten hat die Zahl technischer Neuerungen rasant zugenommen. Man spricht in diesem Zusammenhang häufig von mehreren industriellen Revolutionen. Im Rahmen des Fachforums Physik/Ingenieurwissenschaften vom 30. Januar bis 1. Februar 2015 in Kloster Banz wurden Technologien vorgestellt und diskutiert, die Vorreiter der sogenannten vierten industriellen Revolution sind.

 

Sommaire et résumés des contributions du Géoéconomie 73

Commander le numéro, s’abonner à la revue

In recent years, the international community has examined and promoted the unique role of women and girls in countering violent extremism. But what does this mean in practice? How can the international community best support women and girls facing the challenge of recruitment and radicalization to violence?

This event will focus on the work governments and civil society have done to address the threats facing Iraqi and Syrian women and girls by Da’esh/ISIL/ISIS.

Die Transatlantische Handels- und Investitionspartnerschaft (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, TTIP) wird aktuell heiß diskutiert – jedoch mit einem verengten Fokus. Die Debatte konzentriert sich vor allem auf die Auswirkungen von TTIP auf Deutschland und Europa. Den Implikationen dieses Mega Regionals für den Rest der Welt wird nicht genügend Beachtung geschenkt. Vor dem Hintergrund wachsender globaler Ungleichheit stellt sich die folgende Frage drängender denn je: Wie kann Globalisierung fair gestaltet werden – und kann TTIP dabei eine Rolle spielen?
Mit TTIP versuchen sich die europäischen Industrieländer und die USA an der Festlegung neuer, potenziell global gültiger Spielregeln für die Weltwirtschaft. Aus einer entwicklungspolitischen Perspektive ist dieser exklusive Ansatz bedenklich, da er Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer von den Verhandlungen ausschließt. Die TTIP-Verhandlungsagenda umfasst weit mehr als nur den Abbau von Handelsbeschränkungen, sondern z. B. auch die Regeln für grenzüberschreitende Investitionen und ein breites Spektrum von Regulierungen, die oft nur entfernt etwas mit klassischer Handelspolitik zu tun haben. Diese expansive Verhandlungsagenda ist die eigentliche Innovation der transatlantischen Verhandlungen – mit ungewissen Folgen für all diejenigen Länder, die nicht am Verhandlungstisch sitzen. Denn sie werden sich, ob sie wollen oder nicht, an diesen Regeln orientieren müssen, wenn sie am Welthandel teilnehmen möchten.
TTIP könnte somit einen wichtigen Wendepunkt im Welthandelssystem markieren. TTIP, aber auch die von den USA und weiteren zehn Ländern verhandelte Transpazifische Partnerschaft (Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP) drohen die multilateralen Verhandlungen in der Welthandelsorganisation (World Trade Organization, WTO) weiter zu unterhöhlen. Gefährlicher noch: Diese Mega Regionals provozieren als Gegenreaktion handelspolitische Blockbildungen von Schwellenländern wie Brasilien, Indien und vor allem China, die allesamt nicht an den TTIP- und TPP-Verhandlungen teilnehmen. Statt des überwiegend exklusiven Vorgehens der transatlantischen Partner wäre es besser, den Schwerpunkt auf die Kooperation mit den Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländern zu legen – insbesondere angesichts des enormen ökonomischen Potenzials dieser Länder und der aktuellen globalen Herausforderungen auch in anderen Politikbereichen, die nur mit den Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländern gemeinsam gelöst werden können.
Die TTIP-Verhandlungen bergen sowohl Potenziale als auch Herausforderungen für die globale Entwicklung und die faire Gestaltung der Globalisierung. Aber es gibt konkrete Empfehlungen, wie TTIP möglichst entwicklungsfreundlich ausgestaltet werden kann: 1) im Bereich der regulatorischen Kooperation sollte auf die Diskriminierung von Drittstaaten verzichtet werden; 2) Ursprungsregeln gilt es möglichst großzügig, einheitlich und offen auszugestalten; 3) Präferenzprogramme der EU und der USA sollten vereinheitlicht werden; 4) Drittländern sollten glaubhafte zukünftige Beitrittsoptionen eingeräumt werden.
Für Akteure der Entwicklungspolitik ergeben sich folgende Handlungsoptionen: 1) die TTIP-Verhandlungen unterstreichen die Bedeutung von Maßnahmen zur Integration von Entwicklungsländern in globale Wertschöpfungsketten; 2) auf der europäischen Ebene sollte auf die stärkere Kohärenz von TTIP mit entwicklungspolitischen Zielen und insbesondere der Post-2015-Agenda eingewirkt werden; 3) an Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer müssten Transparenz- und Dialogangebote gemacht werden; 4) auf der multilateralen Ebene sollte der WTO-Prozess wiederbelebt und reformiert werden.

Public Discussion: "After Paris: The Challenge of Returning Fighters", 17 February 2015

Chaque semaine, dans le Nouvel Économiste, Pascal Lorot propose un éclairage géopolitique et géoéconomique sur un sujet d’actualité.

20/01/2015

Charlie, la France, et le monde 

La complexité du monde, à l’aune du fait religieux, est un défi lancé à la France et sa laïcité

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14/01/2015

Lituanie, un signal positif sur le front de l’euro

La petite et vertueuse Lituanie a intégré la zone euro le 1er janvier dernier, preuve que l’Union monétaire demeure attractive

* 11/12/2014

Chrétiens d’Orient, la complaisante cécité occidentale

Qui se soucie aujourd’hui du sort dramatique des chrétiens d’Orient ? Bien peu de monde, hormis le Pape bien sûr et… Vladimir Poutine

* 03/12/2014

La Francophonie, “arme de contruction massive”

Là-bas, en francophonie, se trouvent les points de croissance qui nous font défaut, ici, en France

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26/11/2014

La Corée du Nord (enfin) au ban des Nations ?

Kim-Jong-un déféré devant la Cour pénale internationale, le scénario prend corps

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19/11/2014

De l’art et de la manière de traiter des différends politico-territoriaux

Quand la finesse diplomatique chinoise contraste avec l’irresponsabilité des rodomontades occidentales, en particulier à l’égard de la Russie

* 12/11/2014

Bilan plus que mitigé

Réussite en Asie, échec au Moyen-orient, aventurisme avec la Russie, incertitudes avec l’Iran

* 29/10/2014

Derrière la chute du brut, la main de l’Arabie saoudite

Maintenir les cours du pétrole au plus bas, un bon moyen d’affaiblir la rentabilité de l’huile de schiste américaine

* 23/10/2014

Investissements étrangers : l’Afrique, c’est maintenant !

Si la France veut conquérir ou reconquérir de vraies parts de marché, pas seulement dans ses territoires traditionnels, ce n’est pas demain qu’il faudra s’intéresser à ce continent – il sera trop tard, les positions auront été prises.

* 08/10/2014

A quoi joue la Turquie ?

La connivence de fait entre Ankara et EIIL constitue une vraie interrogation

* 17/09/2014

Vive l’Écosse libre

Les Écossais ont de bonnes raisons de voter leur indépendance

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09/09/2014

Professions réglementées : ne pas casser ce qui marche

Notre système de notariat, par exemple, est perçu comme performant à l’étranger, à tel point que 21 des 28 Etats de l’Union européenne ou encore 13 des 20 premières économies mondiales l’ont adopté

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03/09/2014

Russia Bashing

Depuis la fin de l’URSS, l’Europe et derrière elle les Etats-Unis n’ont eu de cesse de se montrer hostiles à l’égard de Moscou.

* 26/08/2014

Redistribution des cartes moyen-orientale

La stabilisation du Moyen-Orient passe par une redéfinition des postures stratégiques des uns et des autres

* 30/06/2014

La nouvelle aisance pétrolière américaine va impacter la géopolitique mondiale de l’énergie

Washington va pouvoir également engager une politique de dégel avec l’Iran chiite, qui devrait constituer un allié occidental plus sûr que bien des régimes sunnites

* 18/06/2014

Realpolitik oblige

Dans le maelström proche-oriental, la défense de nos intérêts et la recherche d’alliés, quels qu’ils soient, doivent être nos seuls guides

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12/06/2014

La France – « L’homme malade de l’Europe »

Rachat d’Alstom, BNP Paribas mis à l’amende, négociation du traité transatlantique : ces trois événements signent le déclassement français

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27/05/2014

Le coup de rabot de trop

Que souhaite-t-on avec ce coup de rabot supplémentaire ? Détruire un de nos rares outils performants ? Devenir une nation militaire de second rang à la remorque des Etats-Unis ? Massacrer un secteur industriel fort ?

* 06/05/2014

Confondante naïveté

Nous voyons toujours les Etats-Unis comme des amis alors qu’eux, ayant changé de paradigme, nous perçoivent comme des compétiteurs à faire plier.

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29/04/2014

Jeu de dupes transatlantique

Le projet de libre-échange entre les Etats-Unis et l’Europe constitue une régression indubitable en terme de souveraineté économique et démocratique

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17/04/2014

France Branding vs French bashing

Notre pays gagnerait à « raconter une belle histoire » pour contrer le « French bashing » des Anglo-Saxons

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10/04/2014

800 millions d’électeurs pour la plus grande démocratie du monde

Le résultat de ce scrutin ne sera pas sans impact, y compris géopolitique

* 04/04/2014

L’Europe ne doit pas se laisser entraîner dans une nouvelle guerre froide avec la Russie

Au-delà même de la question du gaz, l’intérêt de l’Europe n’est pas d’isoler la Russie comme le prône Washington. Les Etats-Unis ont peu à perdre, nous beaucoup.

* 21/03/2014

Rififi au pays de l’or noir

La rivalité entre l’Arabie saoudite et le Qatar fait monter la tension dans le Golfe

* 13/03/2014

Le militarisme chinois ravive l’inquiétude de ses voisins

Ralentissement économique ou pas, la modernisation de l’armée reste la priorité à Pékin

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04/03/2014

Poutine en rêvait, l’Europe l’a fait !

Moscou attendait depuis vingt ans un prétexte pour rouvrir la question de la Crimée

*

25/02/2014

Djihadisme européen, attention danger !

Il y a une forte corrélation entre le retour chez eux de combattants islamistes européens et la montée des risques terroristes.

*

18/02/2014

 L’onde de choc suisse

Le référendum helvète contre « l’immigration de masse » souligne en creux l’absence de vision française en la matière

*

 05/02/2014

Les nouveaux droits linguistiques données aux régions

Comment ne pas voir que la reconnaissance officielle de langues régionales ou minoritaires participe elle aussi de cette déconstruction de la France et ne va faire qu’accroître des fractures hexagonales déjà bien (trop) nombreuses.

*

17/01/2014

Pour une (vraie) Europe de l’énergie avant un louable « Airbus de l’énergie »

La constitution d’un « Airbus de l’énergie » devrait d’abord passer par une volonté politique européenne commune en matière d’énergie

*

07/01/2014

Le cycle de Doha n’a accouché finalement que d’un accord a minima en décembre dernier à Bali

États-Unis, Chine et Brésil en tête, nombreux sont les pays qui désormais refusent de sacrifier leurs intérêts commerciaux et ceux de leurs entreprises.

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28/11/2013

L’Inde, ou l’émergence contrariée

La fuite des capitaux étrangers sonne comme un signal fort

*

21/11/2013

Quitte ou double à Kiev

Une partie de l’avenir de l’Europe va se jouer dans les tout prochains jours

*

05/11/2013

Après la Catalogne et l’Écosse, c’est au tour du Haut-Adige en Italie de réclamer son autonomie

L’Histoire montre que ce sont généralement les régions riches, à l’identité forte, qui cherchent à quitter les grands ensembles étatiques et géopolitiques

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23/10/2013

Afrique : le tropisme de la CPI

La Cour pénale internationale doit sortir de son tête-à-tête avec le continent noir

*

15/10/2013

Une armée au rabais

Le budget de la Défense est aujourd’hui insuffisant pour maintenir nos capacités à un niveau de fonctionnement minimal

*

10/10/2013

Iran : le pari de l’ouverture

La France qui a été à l’avant-garde des sanctions peut avoir un rôle à jouer en se positionnant maintenant comme le facilitateur du rapprochement de l’Iran avec l’Occident

*

03/10/2013

Poutine, le retour

En se faisant le chantre des valeurs traditionnelles et du fait religieux, le président russe trouve indéniablement un écho dans le monde

*

26/09/2013

Industries des Sciences du Vivant : l’Europe entre ambition et attentisme

Le risque est grand d’être décroché par les États-Unis ou rattrapé par les nations émergentes asiatiques

*

18/09/2013

La Chine assure ses arrières en Asie centrale

Pendant que l’Occident a les yeux rivés sur le Moyen-Orient, Pékin investit économiquement et politiquement en… Asie centrale

*

03/09/2013

La Syrie n’est pas le Mali

Une action limitée, comme on nous l’annonce, ne constitue en rien une solution au problème syrien

*

28/08/2013

L’Égypte outragée, l’Égypte libérée

Ne faisons pas fausse route : c’est pour aider et protéger le peuple que l’armée a renversé Morsi et pris le pouvoir

*

12/07/2013

Big Brother, le retour

Le système d’écoute américain l’atteste : l’Europe a perdu la bataille de la communication et de l’information

*

08/07/2013

Émergents : la révolte des classes moyennes

Partout, elles se mobilisent pour dénoncer les dérives et déficiences de leurs sociétés dans les relations avec l’Occident

*

01/07/2013

Le moment iranien

Le nouveau président est en mesure d’ouvrir une nouvelle séquence dans les relations avec l’Occident

*

21/06/2013

Turquie: la fin d’un modèle

Les événements de la place Taskim ont fait tomber le masque pseudo-modéré de Recep Tayyip Erdogan

*

14/06/2013

La réalité de la cyberguerre

Les Chinois sont passés maîtres dans l’art de l’intrusion informatique , mais les Russes et les Iraniens ne sont pas en reste

*

07/06/2013

La fin des prés carrés

Après avoir détrôné les Européens d’Afrique, les Chinois viennent titiller les États-Unis en Amérique latine

*

03/06/2013

L’Europe en panne

La hausse annoncée du prix de l’électricité n’est que la conséquence de notre incohérence

*

30/04/2013

Hollande, adepte de la realpolitik

Une révolution intellectuelle, bien loin des postures idéologiques habituelles du PS, est en cours aujourd’hui à l’Elysée

*

24/04/2013

Un grand marché transatlantique, en réponse à la crise

Cela fait des décennies que l’on en parle. Pourquoi les États-Unis et l’Europe n’uniraient-ils pas leurs forces ?

*

17/04/2013

Attention bradage

L’État s’apprêterait dans la plus grande indifférence à partager sa souveraineté de… l’îlot de Tromelin

*

11/04/2013

Brics : vers une nouvelle guerre des blocs

Une banque de développement ad hoc : sur fond de tensions politico-économiques, l’émancipation des émergents ne laisse pas d’inquiéter

*

08/04/2013

Déni linguistique: l’atout négligé de la francophonie

Aux yeux de certaines élites, souvent les plus médiatiques, le français apparaît ringard et dépassé

*

28/03/2013

Oligopole sucrier : la France à contre-sens

La défense des groupes de betteraviers – via les quotas – pénalise toute une filière agroalimentaire

*

20/03/2013

La patrie est en danger

La future loi de programmation militaire doit conjurer la menace d’un décrochage stratégique

*

01/03/2013

L’étau arménien 

Sous l’abri russe, Erevan se tourne vers l’Europe pour sortir de son enclavement

*

22 février 2103

La vérité de Manuel Valls 

L’islamisme en tant que projet politique et prosélyte met mal à l’aise

*

11 février 2013

Mali: Hollande chef de guerre

Le défi principal est de vite transformer l’essai sur le plan politique et institutionnel

*

04 février 2013

Cameron, une chance pour l’Europe

Les Britanniques sont tout sauf en position de force pour renégocier leur participation

 

 

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This article originally appeared on The Montréal Review.

 

Man will only become better when you make him see what he is like.

(Anton Chekhov)

The levels of sophistication of science to date might not have managed to fully grasp ‘what man is like’ in neurobiological terms, yet Chekov’s instinct was sound: acquiring an accurate portrayal of human nature is a prerequisite for creating conditions that respect human dignity and morality. Attempts at moral education which fail to take into account fundamental neurochemical elements of human nature, are bound to prove unsuccessful. In some cases, these may even have undesired effects as they can lead to unreasonable expectations.

 

Amorality of man

Cumulative intellectual history offers a wide variety of characterizations of human nature, from those that attribute to human beings a full set of innate ideas to the well-known Lockean tabula rasa . The discussions have also often oscillated between polar contrasts, presenting human nature as either fundamentally good or bad.

The origins of this debate go back to antiquity and various cultures and religions, and relatively recently to Rousseau and Hobbes. Rousseau posited that men, in the original state of nature, were basically good, unselfish and pure. In contrast, for Hobbes, in the state of nature man was intrinsically self-interested, acting for his own well-being and in a manner strictly determined by natural, pre-existent desires and needs to avoid discomfort. The implicit tone of these perspectives (optimistic vs. pessimistic) has informed political philosophy and theories of government for centuries.

While there is grain of truth in a number of these accounts, contemporary research, and neuroscientific insights in particular, adequately demonstrates that both of these extremes distort what is in fact the case, and that both share a common mistake: underestimating the significance of the neurochemical underpinnings of human nature. When this error is recognized, it immediately becomes clear that circumstance and background conditions inform moral development to a much greater degree than previously appreciated.

Rather than choosing between dichotomous notions of moral vs. immoral, I argue that humans are essentially amoral . The notion of amorality implies that we are neither products of pure free will, nor entirely of genetics. Humans are born with what I have called a predisposed tabula rasa , free of any innate ideas but possessing certain predilections for survival coded by genetics. Therefore, we come into the world with a set of basic survival instincts which do not operate as conscious motivators but more like inbuilt biological microchips tuning us for survival.

Several crucial aspects then weigh in our conduct, actions and propensity to act morally or immorally, of which the environment (such as education, or social and cultural context) and exogenous conditions are crucial. Indeed, man`s moral compass is greatly shaped by circumstances as little expectations of moral behavior can be inferred in immoral environments, where choosing moral actions would be detrimental to one`s own survival.

 

Egoism as the only innate endowment

The predispositional aspect of my neurophilosophical theory of human nature is informed by Darwinian selection pressure. The drive for survival of the self—a basic kind of egoism—is a principle motivation for human beings, as it must be for the evolutionary process to function. The presence of this survival instinct thus cuts against the idea of a truly blank slate.

The supposition of additional innate ideas, however, and in particular the advocacy of an innate morality is demonstrably false given the tendency of moral development to vary widely but predictably with regard to background conditions: were morality innate, we should expect to find, contrary to fact, that the most harrowing and most stable social circumstances contribute equally to the development of a moral compass and regard for human dignity.

The amorality of the untutored human beings thus leaves them significantly, though not entirely, at the mercy of the circumstances and social context in which they find themselves. To a large extent, therefore, our moral compass, guiding us to be good or bad, is shaped by our perceived self-interest at a given time. In this underlying framework of action, guided by self-interest, human motivation is further shaped by other environmental factors and emotionality. Emotionality is not a peripheral aspect of our human nature or an occasional distortion of it, but rather is formative in our development and constitutive of our moral lives and has clear neurochemical foundations.

 

The Centrality of Emotion

Human experience is mediated by emotions, and these emotions, in turn, are mediated by neurochemistry. This general observation is strengthened in a preliminary way through intercultural comparison of emotional expression, which demonstrates their similarity across social and cultural frameworks . It is further bolstered by contemporary neuroscience showing that emotions are fundamentally material and the neurochemicals responsible for these observed states can now be specified and described with a high degree of sophistication, although much more will be known in the future about their nature, diversity and mechanisms of action.

These findings lay the scientific bedrock for rethinking longstanding assumptions regarding the role of rationality and its dominance over emotions. On this traditional model, human beings conceived of as rational actors were only occasionally subject to flights of irrationality in those rare moments when emotions overtook them. Since at least Plato, this picture, which idealizes those with the greatest rational self-mastery, has been held up as the ideal. Kant’s fixation with the law of rationality shares this inheritance. This stark divide between one’s moral duty as rationally derivable and emotional human sympathies has left an indelible impression on Western moral philosophy. However, more recently, given our understanding of the frequency and power of emotional influence this basic structure began to be challenged.

As continues to be poignantly illustrated by theorists and scientists, it is very often the emotions, rather than rationality which determine human behavior. Demonstrations of this include now well-known neuroscientific experiments showing that decisions are often made before the fully conscious (and thus rational) mind knows what is being decided. Jonathan Haidt provides an apt description of this process in his metaphor of elephant and rider , where the emotional self is represented by the elephant, and rationality by the rider: if you wish to change the direction of the duo, the best strategy is to appeal to the elephant. This is not to say that the rider / rationality can never override the more impulsive elephant / emotions, but that the best science shows this to be the exception rather than the rule.

These accounts significantly harmonize with my concept of emotional amoral egoism . Haidt’s example further softens the traditional dichotomy between emotionality and rationality to the effect that emotions should be understood as cognitive: emotional experience is deeply implicated in most of our thought-processes and inferences, rather than being an encumbrance to them.

Contemporary neuroscientific research has confirmed these ideas. When those areas of the brain—particularly the prefrontal-cortex (pfc)—are underdeveloped or damaged, the emotions associated with sociality are either severely truncated or absent altogether. Extensive evidence further shows that such individuals have little moral understanding or regard for morality broadly defined. These clear connections between the capacity to experience particular emotions and brain function, on the one hand, and between brain function and morality on the other, cement the inextricable nature of our neurochemistry and our moral/ socio-emotional capacities.

They thus serve to demonstrate that our neurochemistry is the lowest common denominator: the minimal endowment human beings have at birth both determines them to be initially geared purely for survival, but also leaves them highly susceptible to the influence of their respective environments. With this understanding of our human nature, as emotional, amoral and egoistic, we must weigh alternative policies and approaches to social organization, especially given the emotional and deeply visceral nature of identity issues. This will be critical if we are to improve our capacities for moral and political cooperation and generate sustainable domestic and global peace and prosperity. This can be achieved by reciprocity both at transnational and transcultural levels , through mutual respect, equality, justice and the guarantee of human dignity for all, at all times, and under all circumstances.

 

 

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Ce cours, offert par le GCSP, grâce à la subvention du Département de la Défense, de la Protection de la Population et des Sports de la Suisse, sera organisé en partenariat avec l’Etat-major général des Armées du Sénégal et le Centre des Hautes Etudes de Défense et de Sécurité (CHEDS), et pourra compter sur la contribution des Forces Armées Suisses.

Les objectifs du cours sont:
• de consolider les compétences et la compréhension des participants sur des thèmes spécifiques liés à la politique de sécurité internationale
• d’assurer une base solide pour leurs futurs défis professionnels en tant qu’attachés de défense
• de familiariser les futurs attachés de défense au travail multilatéral et multiculturel

Arms proliferation is both a traditional and a new security issue. In fact, it is as old as armament (and indeed technology) itself. What is an almost inextricable challenge for the international community is the complexity of devising effective policy responses to an increasingly transnational threat resulting from the action of a diversity of state and non-state actors. 

In order to help comprehend this phenomenon, this one-day module will attempt to address the multiform nature of the arms proliferation problem, to assess how it has been hitherto dealt with, and to explore and discuss what may be done from now on, whether about weapons of mass destruction or conventional weapons.